Gameweek in Review
Every round, we go back over what we called — the pick that came off, the one that missed, and the players who actually decided it.
Eredivisie · Regular Season - 1
Ajax were the only away side to make the model look tidy
Three calls landed, six did not, and the round’s clearest lesson was that home advantage was a poor guide in a week when Excelsior, Telstar and Ajax all left with something more useful than politeness. The model found a few narrow home wins, but it missed the scale of the damage in some places and failed to spot where late goals would matter most.
0 STAR · 3 TICK · 6 MISS
Czech Liga · Regular Season - 2
Andrew Irving gave Sparta Praha the round’s only clean hit, while the rest of the sheet went looking for familiar names and found trouble
One correct call out of eight is not a flattering line, but it does tell a clear story: Sparta Praha’s win was read properly, while several other games turned on scorers Fipster had not backed and one very ordinary 0-0 in Bohemians 1905 v Hradec Králové quietly did the damage to the round.
0 STAR · 1 TICK · 7 MISS
Premiership · Regular Season - 4
Lawrence Shankland and S. Ramos gave Premiership Round 4 its clearest lessons
Fipster got one call right, three wrong, and the round was honest about why: Rangers’ narrow win came from the sort of detail the model liked, while Dundee United and Motherwell supplied the sort of scorers it did not see coming.
0 STAR · 1 TICK · 3 MISS
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 1
Yuito Suzuki and Younes Ebnoutalib made a mess of the opening weekend
Fipster found one exact scoreline in Bundesliga’s first round, but the bigger story was how often the model trusted away wins that never arrived. Freiburg, Leipzig and Dortmund were the tidy calls; Augsburg, Köln, Mainz and Union were the ones that asked awkward questions.
1 STAR · 3 TICK · 5 MISS
Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 2
Paris FC and Rennes were the bright spots in a rough Ligue 1 round
Fipster found only two correct calls in nine, and both came from home wins that were more convincing than the model’s scorelines suggested. The bigger story was elsewhere: several matches turned on scorers it never named, with Gessime Yassine, Esteban Lepaul and Paris Josua Brunner doing the damage the model did not see coming.
0 STAR · 2 TICK · 7 MISS
Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 22
Messi did his bit, but Round 22 belonged to the names Fipster never quite had down
Inter Miami’s rout and a few tidy scoreline reads gave the model some credit, yet the round was really decided by the gaps: a scorer nobody called in Columbus, a flat miss in Atlanta, and several games where the right team was identified for the wrong reasons.
0 STAR · 6 TICK · 9 MISS
Süper Lig · Regular Season - 2
Mason Greenwood and Mohamed Salah made the round noisier than the model expected
Fipster found one perfect call in Alanyaspor’s 1-0 win over Beşiktaş, but the rest of the weekend leaned hard against the home-win bias. The biggest damage came from Galatasaray’s four-goal burst, Fenerbahçe’s open afternoon and a few away sides who had not read the memo about being polite guests.
1 STAR · 3 TICK · 5 MISS
Czech Liga · Regular Season - 1
Opening day was rude to the model, but not entirely unkind
Fipster came out of Czech Liga’s first round with three correct calls and five misses, which is not the sort of opening flourish anyone orders. The wins were real enough, though, and the mistakes had a pattern: too many draws turned into away wins or home blowouts, while the player calls mostly arrived from elsewhere. A few names did exactly what the model liked; several others turned up and changed the script without asking permission.
0 STAR · 3 TICK · 5 MISS
Eredivisie · Regular Season - 2
A tidy away lean, then a few home comforts went missing
Fipster came out of Eredivisie Round 2 with one star, five ticks and three misses. The broad shape was sensible enough: away wins were often the right side to be on, but a couple of home favourites were asked to do too much, and two draws slipped through where the model wanted control. The round’s best call was the one that trusted Sparta Rotterdam to win away; the worst was the one that expected Ajax to keep things neat at home.
1 STAR · 5 TICK · 3 MISS
UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round
The model found the narrow wins, then got mugged by the scorelines
Fipster came out of the Europa League third qualifying round with four stars, nine ticks and thirteen misses. The cleanest calls were the tight home wins and a few low-scoring ties; the damage came when games opened up, or shut down, in ways the model had not really priced in. A decent round on paper, but one that spent a lot of time looking at the wrong end of the telescope.
4 STAR · 9 TICK · 13 MISS
Premier League · Regular Season - 1
Fipster got the shape of opening day right, but not always the script
Seven correct calls from ten is a decent way to start, though the misses were loud enough to leave a mark. The model found the right side of several tight games, but it was less comfortable when matches opened up, late goals arrived, or unexpected scorers took centre stage.
0 STAR · 7 TICK · 3 MISS
UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round
Conference League qualifying gave us a useful lesson: the model found a few clean reads, then spent the rest of the round being mugged by late goals and awkward scorelines
Fipster came out of the UEFA Europa Conference League third qualifying round with two exact calls and 24 correct outcomes from 60 fixtures, but the bigger story was how often the shape of a match changed after the model had already settled on a neat script. A couple of player calls landed properly. More often, the right scorer was there but in the wrong match, or an unexpected name did the damage and turned a decent read into a miss.
2 STAR · 24 TICK · 34 MISS