Gameweek in Review
Every round, we go back over what we called — the pick that came off, the one that missed, and the players who actually decided it.
UEFA Champions League · Play-offs
Fipster’s play-off read was lively, but the round kept changing its mind
Three correct calls from eight is not a disaster in a knockout round, but it is a reminder that the play-offs do not care much for tidy scripts. Fipster found the right side of a few scorelines, yet several ties were decided by scorers the model did not name, and one went past 90 minutes when the forecast wanted it done earlier.
0 STAR · 3 TICK · 5 MISS
Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 19
A round that split neatly between the obvious and the awkward
Fipster came out of MLS Regular Season - 19 with two perfect calls, a handful of tidy reads, and enough misses to remind everyone that football still enjoys a joke at the model’s expense. The best hits came where the pre-match logic held up cleanly; the worst came when the goals arrived from places the model had not properly budgeted for.
2 STAR · 6 TICK · 7 MISS
Serie A · Regular Season - 19
Serie A’s 19th round punished the tidy call and rewarded the awkward one
Fipster finished the round with four correct calls and six misses, which is a polite way of saying the model found some of the right winners but kept tripping over who would actually do the scoring. The cleanest reads were on Flamengo, Corinthians, Palmeiras and Vitória; the bigger errors came when the goals arrived from names the model had not properly priced in.
0 STAR · 4 TICK · 6 MISS
Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 17
MLS Round 17 mostly did what the model asked — until a few teams decided to improvise
Fipster came out of Regular Season - 17 with 15 correct calls and five misses, which is tidy enough for a league that rarely behaves itself. The round rewarded the stronger attacking reads, but it also punished overconfidence in a couple of home sides and reminded us that one unexpected scorer can ruin a very respectable afternoon.
0 STAR · 15 TICK · 5 MISS
Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 2
A round where the model found the right shape, then kept missing the furniture
Fipster came out of Primeira Liga Round 2 with three correct calls, five wrong ones, and one postponed fixture left on the board. The broad read was decent in a few places — especially where home wins stayed tight and Sporting’s game turned into the sort of scrap the model expected — but several matches swung hard on scorers it never named, and one of them turned into a proper hiding.
0 STAR · 3 TICK · 5 MISS