Fipster Prediction Accuracy
Fipster tracks the historical performance of its football predictions so you can see how the forecasts hold up over time. Accuracy varies by league, market, match context, and confidence level — the figures below are measured from real, completed matches, not claims.
Accuracy by confidence level
A useful forecast should be right more often when it is more confident. This is how our confidence levels track against actual results.
| Confidence level | Outcome called | Exact score | Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| High confidence | 53% | 7% | 1,298 |
| Medium confidence | 40% | 9% | 447 |
| Low confidence | 38% | 6% | 787 |
Accuracy by competition
Some competitions are more predictable than others. Only leagues with a meaningful sample of graded predictions are shown.
| Competition | Outcome called | Exact score | Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 49% | 9% | 325 |
| Major League Soccer | 44% | 4% | 288 |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 42% | 4% | 204 |
| Championship | 44% | 8% | 197 |
| La Liga | 48% | 10% | 185 |
| Premier League | 43% | 6% | 161 |
| Eredivisie | 52% | 5% | 119 |
| UEFA Europa League | 44% | 6% | 117 |
| Czech Liga | 43% | 7% | 106 |
| Primeira Liga | 50% | 9% | 105 |
| World Cup | 63% | 14% | 104 |
| Ligue 1 | 40% | 4% | 100 |
| Bundesliga | 45% | 4% | 99 |
| Süper Lig | 49% | 6% | 99 |
| UEFA Nations League | 37% | 7% | 97 |
| UEFA Champions League | 51% | 7% | 94 |
| Premiership | 47% | 7% | 70 |
| Pro League | 51% | 5% | 39 |
How to read these numbers
“Match outcomes called correctly” counts predictions where Fipster called the right result (home win, draw, or away win). “Exact scorelines” is the stricter measure — the precise final score. Football is high variance, so even a strong forecast is a probability, never a guarantee.
Fipster’s forecasts are built from football data and statistical modelling. Read more about how Fipster works.
Historical performance does not guarantee future results. Fipster predictions are probabilistic forecasts for information and entertainment, not financial or betting advice.