Michael Olise and Harry Kane turned Bayern’s forecast into a rout, while the rest of Bundesliga Round 4 got messy

Bayern made the clearest point of the round

The best call was the simplest one: Bayern München to win at home. Fipster had that right, even if the final margin ran well past the 4-0 shape it preferred. The model saw a home win with Bayern doing most of the damage, and that part held because the attack it expected actually arrived in layers rather than in one burst. Jamal Musiala opened it up, Harry Kane added two, and Michael Olise turned it into a procession with a hat-trick and an assist. That is not luck; that is a front line doing exactly what a front line is paid for, which is reassuring in a way football rarely bothers to be.

The miss that mattered most was Leverkusen against Leipzig

This was the round where Fipster leaned hardest on away wins and got burned for it. Bayer Leverkusen against RB Leipzig was the cleanest example. The model backed Leipzig to go there and win 3-2, but the game went the other way entirely: Patrik Schick struck before half-time, Miguel Gutiérrez finished it after the break, and Leipzig never found a reply. The mistake was not just picking the wrong side. It was over-valuing Leipzig’s ability to turn a competitive match into one they controlled. Instead, Leverkusen were the more decisive team at both ends of the key moments, which is usually inconvenient if you have already written down an away win.

The round belonged to players Fipster never named pre-match

The player story was almost entirely about names Fipster did not call out before kick-off. Michael Olise was the loudest of them all, with three goals and an assist for Bayern München; Harry Kane added two more; Jamal Musiala scored once and set one up. None of those scorer calls were on Fipster’s sheet beforehand, so they count as unforeseen rather than clever foresight. The same pattern ran through much of the round: Maximilian Beier scored Borussia Dortmund’s winner at Stuttgart; Younes Ebnoutalib and Yuito Suzuki traded blows in Frankfurt’s draw with Freiburg; Robin Fellhauer, Calvin Brackelmann, Marco Grüll, Niclas Füllkrug and Mitchell-Elijah Weiser all found their way onto the scoresheet in Bremen’s 3-2 game; and Danny Vieira da Costa popped up late for Mainz in their wild win at Borussia Mönchengladbach. The model did identify some useful team outcomes, but it did not have much help from its pre-match scorer calls because there were none to lean on.

There were also quieter reminders that not every wrong call needs fireworks to be wrong. FC Schalke 04 against SV Elversberg finished 0-0 after Fipster had backed an away win, which is a tidy little rebuke from a match that produced no goals at all. SC Paderborn 07 then beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 after being priced up as an away loss in spirit if not in scoreline. Put together with Werder Bremen’s comeback against FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt’s draw with SC Freiburg, it was a round that punished certainty more than caution.