SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Paderborn stuns Hoffenheim with commanding win
A brace from S. Castañeda and a late strike from S. Tigges seal a 3-1 victory at home.
SC Paderborn 07 defied expectations by securing a 3-1 win over 1899 Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga. S. Castañeda opened the scoring before S. Marino doubled the lead in the first half, with Hoffenheim's A. Daghim pulling one back early in the second half. However, S. Tigges restored Paderborn's two-goal cushion to seal the victory. This result was a surprise against Fipster's low-confidence prediction favouring an away win.
Outcome probability
The Bundesliga season kicks off with an intriguing clash as SC Paderborn 07 face 1899 Hoffenheim. Both teams are eager to set the tone for the campaign, with Hoffenheim looking to build on their solid previous season and Paderborn aiming to make a strong impression after promotion.
Key facts
- 1.1899 Hoffenheim finished 5th in the Bundesliga last season with 61 points from 34 games.
- 2.SC Paderborn 07 are newly promoted to the Bundesliga this season.
- 3.Hoffenheim have strengthened their squad with the signings of M. Rots, P. Wimmer, and A. Daghim.
- 4.Paderborn have added M. Pieringer and R. Philippe (on loan) to their squad over the summer.
- 5.The predicted final score is 2-1 in favour of Hoffenheim.
- 6.This is the first competitive match of the season for both teams.
The context
This match marks the first competitive fixture of the new season for both sides. Hoffenheim finished 5th in the Bundesliga last term, while Paderborn are newly promoted and stepping up to face tougher opposition. Both teams have made some summer moves, with Hoffenheim signing M. Rots, P. Wimmer, and A. Daghim, while Paderborn have bolstered their ranks with M. Pieringer and R. Philippe on loan.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — SC Paderborn 07
Away — 1899 Hoffenheim
Analysis
Hoffenheim enter this fixture with a clear edge, having maintained their Bundesliga status and strengthened their squad with key signings. Paderborn, while enthusiastic, face the challenge of adapting to the top flight. The predicted 2-1 scoreline in Hoffenheim's favour reflects their likely control of the match, though Paderborn's home spirit and new additions could make it a competitive encounter.
Prediction
Expect Hoffenheim to clinch a narrow 2-1 victory. Their experience at this level and summer reinforcements should see them edge out Paderborn, who will nonetheless provide a spirited challenge in their return to the Bundesliga.
The verdict
While the prediction leans towards Hoffenheim, the season opener often throws up surprises. Paderborn will be keen to prove their mettle, but Hoffenheim's quality and preparation suggest they will start the campaign with a win.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Castañeda
Marino
Assist: Curda
Burger
Yellow Card
Rots
Pieringer
Daghim
Assist: Moerstedt
Moerstedt
Hložek
Obermair
Tigges
Assist: Jonah Benedict Sticker
Vidović
Marino
Hansen
Daghim
Avdullahu
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 16 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
Match Statistics
SC Paderborn 07
3-5-2Starting XI
- 5S. CastañedaM
- 15N. NollG
- 17L. CurdaM
- 18M. PieringerF
- 21J. ter HorstD
- 22M. HansenD
- 23R. ObermairM
- 25T. SchellerD
- 28L. UlrichM
- 30S. MarinoF
- 40G. VidovićM
Substitutes
- 1M. SchubertG
- 2Ruben MüllerF
- 3Jonah Benedict StickerM
- 6T. BaackM
- 9R. PhilippeF
- 11S. MichelF
- 20F. GötzeD
- 27S. TiggesF
- 38D. ZeitlerF
1899 Hoffenheim
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1O. BaumannG
- 5O. KabakD
- 7L. AvdullahuM
- 9Max MoerstedtF
- 10A. HložekF
- 14A. DaghimM
- 18W. BurgerM
- 20B. ContéM
- 28K. MachidaD
- 34V. CoufalD
- 39M. RotsD
Substitutes
- 2R. HranáčD
- 8P. WimmerM
- 11F. AsllaniF
- 15V. GendreyD
- 17Nathan De CatM
- 19T. LemperleF
- 21A. HajdariD
- 27A. KramarićF
- 37L. PhilippG
SC Paderborn 07
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Castañeda | M | 90 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Marino | F | 73 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| S. Tigges | F | 44 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| J. ter Horst | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| L. Curda | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 2/4 |
| M. Pieringer | F | 46 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| T. Scheller | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jonah Benedict Sticker | M | 27 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Philippe | F | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| G. Vidović | M | 73 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| F. Götze | D | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Baack | M | 17 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Hansen | D | 75 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Obermair | M | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/2 |
| L. Ulrich | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| N. Noll | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Schubert | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Michel | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ruben Müller | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Zeitler | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
1899 Hoffenheim
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Machida | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Daghim | M | 80 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3/10 |
| Max Moerstedt | F | 62 | 6.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| B. Conté | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 7 | 1 | 3 | — |
| F. Asllani | F | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | — |
| P. Wimmer | M | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/2 |
| L. Avdullahu | M | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Lemperle | F | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| A. Hajdari | D | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Hložek | F | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| A. Kramarić | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Kabak | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Rots | D | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| W. Burger | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| V. Coufal | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| O. Baumann | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan De Cat | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Philipp | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Hranáč | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Gendrey | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
- Fipster's AI model predicted 1899 Hoffenheim to win against SC Paderborn 07.
- What score did Fipster predict for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
- Fipster predicted a final score of SC Paderborn 07 1–2 1899 Hoffenheim.
- What were the win probabilities for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
- Fipster's model gave SC Paderborn 07 a 32% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.