Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05
Mainz edge thrilling seven-goal thriller
A seesaw battle sees FSV Mainz 05 clinch a narrow win at Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 served up a pulsating Bundesliga encounter with seven goals in total. Early strikes from F. Neuhaus and P. Tietz set the tone, but Mainz pulled ahead with S. Becker before the break and extended their lead through E. Martel and D. da Costa. Gladbach fought back with I. Lidberg and a last-gasp penalty from S. Machino, but it wasn't enough to prevent a 4-3 defeat. Fipster's low-confidence call for an away win was on the money, even if the scoreline was far more dramatic than predicted.
Outcome probability
The new Bundesliga season kicks off with Borussia Mönchengladbach facing FSV Mainz 05. Both sides have reshaped their squads over the summer, setting the stage for an intriguing opener as they look to make their mark early on.
Key facts
- 1.Borussia Mönchengladbach signed K. Itakura this summer.
- 2.Borussia Mönchengladbach lost N. Elvedi and R. Reitz to transfers.
- 3.FSV Mainz 05 signed goalkeeper A. Schwolow.
- 4.This is the first league match of the 2026/27 Bundesliga season for both teams.
- 5.Prediction favours an away win with a 2-1 scoreline for Mainz 05.
- 6.Halftime score predicted as 0-2, indicating early Mainz dominance.
- 7.Borussia Mönchengladbach ranked 12th last season with 38 points.
- 8.FSV Mainz 05 ranked 10th last season with 40 points.
The context
Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen some summer changes, notably signing K. Itakura while parting ways with N. Elvedi and R. Reitz. Mainz 05 have bolstered their ranks with the arrival of goalkeeper A. Schwolow. Neither side has played a league game yet, so this match will be the first real test of their new-look squads.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Borussia Mönchengladbach
Away — FSV Mainz 05
Analysis
The prediction leans towards an away win for Mainz 05, with a halftime lead of 2-0 suggesting early dominance. Borussia Mönchengladbach are expected to pull one back in the second half, but Mainz should hold on for a 2-1 victory. The statistical outlook shows a strong probability for an away win, with draws and home wins less likely. Both teams sit mid-table from last season, making this a potentially tight contest despite the predicted scoreline.
Prediction
Expect Mainz 05 to start the season strongly, taking an early two-goal lead and managing to withstand Borussia Mönchengladbach's late efforts. The final scoreline of 2-1 in favour of Mainz reflects their summer reinforcements and tactical edge in this opener.
The verdict
This season opener promises a competitive match with Mainz 05 narrowly coming out on top. Borussia Mönchengladbach will look to bounce back quickly, but Mainz’s early advantage could set the tone for their campaign.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Neuhaus
Assist: Ullrich
Tietz
Assist: Becker
Ullrich
Yellow Card
Becker
Assist: Caci
Honorat
Yellow Card
Penalty confirmed
Posch
Yellow Card
Lidberg
Assist: Ullrich
Neuhaus
Yellow Card
Neuhaus
Caci
Lee Jae-Sung
Mwene
Yellow Card
Becker
Scally
Honorat
Martel
Assist: Sano
Itakura
Bolin
Mohya
Yellow Card
Stöger
Yellow Card
da Costa
Amiri
Machino
Yellow Card
Potulski
Yellow Card
Schwolow
Yellow Card
Machino
Penalty
Königsdörffer
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1M. NicolasG
- 3I. LidbergF
- 4K. DiksD
- 5J. LeszczyńskiD
- 6K. ItakuraD
- 9F. HonoratM
- 10F. NeuhausM
- 16P. SanderM
- 26L. UllrichM
- 29J. ScallyM
- 38H. BolinM
Substitutes
- 2F. ChiarodiaD
- 7K. StögerM
- 14D. HashiokaD
- 18S. MachinoF
- 20D. HeroldD
- 25R. HackM
- 33D. BatzG
- 34M. NguefackM
- 36W. MohyaM
FSV Mainz 05
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 2P. MweneM
- 3F. GruberD
- 4S. PoschD
- 6K. SanoM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 9P. TietzF
- 10N. AmiriM
- 19A. CaciM
- 23S. BeckerF
- 48K. PotulskiD
Substitutes
- 5E. MartelM
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 16S. BellD
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 20O. RuoppiM
- 21D. da CostaD
- 40M. KinzigG
- 47R. NakuzolaD
Borussia Mönchengladbach
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Lidberg | F | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| S. Machino | F | 6 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| F. Neuhaus | M | 64 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0/1 |
| L. Ullrich | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| J. Leszczyński | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| J. Scally | M | 76 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| H. Bolin | M | 84 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| K. Diks | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| P. Sander | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Hack | M | 6 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Nicolas | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Hashioka | D | 14 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Stöger | M | 14 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| W. Mohya | M | 26 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| K. Itakura | D | 84 | 5.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| F. Honorat | M | 76 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| D. Batz | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Nguefack | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Chiarodia | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Herold | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Becker | F | 76 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1/1 |
| P. Tietz | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| E. Martel | M | 25 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| D. da Costa | D | 25 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| K. Sano | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| A. Caci | M | 65 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| R. Königsdörffer | F | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Amiri | M | 91 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Lee Jae-Sung | M | 65 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| F. Gruber | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| P. Mwene | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Schwolow | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Potulski | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| S. Posch | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Hollerbach | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kinzig | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Ruoppi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Maloney | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Nakuzola | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Bell | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
- Fipster's AI model predicted FSV Mainz 05 to win against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
- What score did Fipster predict for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 FSV Mainz 05.
- What were the win probabilities for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
- Fipster's model gave Borussia Mönchengladbach a 32% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.