Fenerbahçe and Trabzonspor did the heavy lifting, but the round still found room to argue

The round leaned our way in the obvious places, then got awkward where the margins were thin

The broad picture was decent enough. Fipster picked out five winners correctly, and the two biggest home statements of the weekend were among them: Fenerbahçe’s demolition of Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor’s brisk dismissal of Galatasaray both matched the model’s basic read that those attacks would carry too much weight. Başakşehir also did what was expected of them, and Kocaelispor kept their end tidy with a controlled win. The trouble came when the round stopped being polite. Çorum FK lost a game the model had framed as theirs, Göztepe rescued a draw from nowhere, and Kasımpaşa spent ninety minutes refusing to turn territory into goals. That is where a round starts looking less like a forecast and more like an argument.

The cleanest call was Fenerbahçe against Eyüpspor, because the scoring threat was exactly where we said it would be

This was not just a correct home win; it was a correct read on who would do the damage. Fipster called Mason Greenwood and Vedat Muriqi as the main threats, and both delivered in style. Mason Greenwood opened the scoring from the spot and added another goal later, while Vedat Muriqi went one better than that with four goals. The model’s logic here held because it trusted volume at source: Fenerbahçe’s attack had been flagged as too strong for Eyüpspor to contain, and that proved true almost immediately. Once the first goal went in early, the rest looked less like a contest than paperwork.

Çorum FK was where we over-read control and under-read resistance

The miss that matters most is Çorum FK against Alanyaspor, because it shows how quickly a neat home narrative can collapse if you lean too hard on expected control. Fipster backed Çorum FK to edge it, with Alexandros Kyziridis and Jesús Ramírez Díaz among the names expected to matter. Jesús Ramírez Díaz did score, so this was not a total blind spot, but the model overweighted Çorum FK’s home case and did not give enough credit to Alanyaspor’s ability to nick it late through Gaïus Makouta and Arda Usluoğlu. That is a useful correction for next time: possession of the story is not possession of the points. Football remains annoyingly literal about that.

Mohamed Salah owned the round; Vedat Muriqi and Eldor Azamat Shomurodov backed up why they were flagged beforehand

The player list at the top of this round is fairly clear-cut. Mohamed Salah was everywhere for Trabzonspor: three goals, an assist, and complete control of their win over Galatasaray after Fipster had already identified him as the key attacking threat. Vedat Muriqi did something similar for Fenerbahçe, turning pre-match confidence into an avalanche of goals rather than merely one useful contribution. Eldor Azamat Shomurodov also justified his billing by scoring twice for Başakşehir after being singled out before kick-off as their main danger. Among the quieter wins for the model were Diaa Sabia for Amed and Berkan Kutlu for Kocaelispor; both were named beforehand and both scored, which is exactly what you want from player calls when nobody is handing out medals for elegance.

A decent week overall, then: enough right calls to trust the method, enough wrong ones to keep it honest.

The next round will ask a different question, as they always do. The useful part is that this one sharpened a few edges: trust elite scorers when their teams are already creating chances in volume, but be wary of assuming tidy home logic will survive if an opponent can stay in touch long enough to make late moments count.