Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor
Erzurumspor FK edge Samsunspor in tight contest
Miguel Cardoso's first-half strike secures a narrow home victory.
Erzurumspor FK claimed a slender 1-0 win over Samsunspor thanks to Miguel Cardoso's goal just before half-time. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction favouring an away win, the home side held firm to defy expectations and take all three points in this Süper Lig encounter.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
0-1 Samsunspor win
Actual
1–0
Outcome probability
As the sixth round of the season unfolds, Erzurumspor FK face off against Samsunspor in what promises to be a closely contested match. Both teams have had mixed starts, but Samsunspor's slightly better league position and goal difference hint at a potential edge.
Match factors
Samsunspor's midfield creativity vs Erzurumspor's defense
Samsunspor's Celil Yüksel and Saikuba Jarju provide creative threat that could exploit Erzurumspor's defensive vulnerabilities
Eren Tozlu's scoring consistency
Tozlu has scored 2 goals in 5 games, above league average for attackers, making him Erzurumspor's main scoring outlet
Samsunspor missing key attacker Fatih Kaya
Kaya is confirmed out due to injury, reducing Samsunspor's attacking options and shifting responsibility to others
Erzurumspor FK's recent scoring struggles
Erzurumspor have scored only 2 goals in 5 games with a 60% failed to score rate, indicating offensive challenges
Defensive solidity of Josafat Mendes
Mendes combines defensive reliability with offensive contributions, key to Samsunspor's balance
The context
Erzurumspor FK currently sit 17th in the league with just one point from three games, struggling to find the net consistently. Samsunspor, placed 9th, have accumulated four points and boast a significantly better goal difference, reflecting a more effective attack and defence so far this season.
Key insights
Celil Yüksel
Samsunspor
Yüksel's creativity and goal threat from midfield could exploit Erzurumspor's defensive weaknesses.
Süper Lig 26/271 goal in 4 appearances, 0.25 goals/game
Eren Tozlu
Erzurumspor FK
Tozlu remains Erzurumspor's main scoring outlet with a goal rate above the league average for attackers.
Süper Lig 26/272 goals in 5 appearances, 0.4 goals/game
Josafat Wooding Mendes
Samsunspor
Mendes provides defensive stability and offensive support, key to Samsunspor's balanced play.
Süper Lig 26/271 assist and 1 goal in 4 appearances
Analysis
Samsunspor's midfield creativity, led by Celil Yüksel and Saikuba Jarju, poses a notable threat to Erzurumspor's defence. Despite Erzurumspor's main attacking outlet Eren Tozlu showing decent scoring form, their overall offensive struggles could limit their chances. Samsunspor's defensive solidity, anchored by Josafat Wooding Mendes, should help them maintain a clean sheet. The absence of Samsunspor's key attacker Fatih Kaya due to injury might reduce their firepower, but their balanced squad depth is expected to compensate.
Key facts
- 1.Erzurumspor FK are ranked 17th with 1 point from 3 games (W0 D1 L2).
- 2.Samsunspor hold 9th place with 4 points from 3 games (W1 D1 L1).
- 3.Samsunspor have a significantly better goal difference (+7) than Erzurumspor FK.
- 4.Samsunspor average 1.33 points per game compared to Erzurumspor FK's 0.33.
- 5.Eren Tozlu is Erzurumspor FK's top scorer with 2 goals in 5 games.
- 6.Celil Yüksel leads Samsunspor's scoring with 1 goal in 4 games.
- 7.Samsunspor's Josafat Wooding Mendes contributes both defensively and offensively with 1 goal and 1 assist.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a narrow away win for Samsunspor, with a 1-0 scoreline being the most probable outcome. The halftime score is also expected to reflect this slim margin. Discipline on the pitch should be moderate, with an estimated three cards in total.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Erzurumspor FK
Away — Samsunspor
The verdict
In summary, Samsunspor's superior league standing, goal difference, and midfield creativity give them the upper hand in this encounter. Erzurumspor FK will need to overcome their scoring difficulties to challenge effectively, but the forecast suggests Samsunspor will edge this one by a single goal.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Miguel Cardoso
Yellow Card
Owusu
Yellow Card
Miguel Cardoso
Jarju
Rodríguez
Onur
Yellow Card
Watt
Tozlu
Miguel Cardoso
Baiye
Yellow Card
Onur
Ovacıklı
Kılınç
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Trabzonspor | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Samsunspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 |  Alanyaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |  Göztepe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 |  Erzurumspor FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 |  Konyaspor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Erzurumspor FK
5-4-1Starting XI
- 1E. TaşkıranG
- 4A. GerxhaliuD
- 6B. BaiyeM
- 10E. TozluF
- 15G. GiorbelidzeD
- 18N. MujakićD
- 20Miguel CardosoM
- 22M. YumluD
- 42E. OwusuM
- 53O. OvacıklıD
- 65M. RodríguezM
Substitutes
- 2F. EboseleD
- 3Y. KırtayD
- 8S. AkgünM
- 9G. KerkF
- 19I. DiabateF
- 23C. BayrakD
- 31M. OrbanićG
- 77L. AgyekumM
- 90N. AxundzadəF
- 99M. FettahoğluF
Samsunspor
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1O. KocukG
- 2J. MendesD
- 4E. WattM
- 5C. YükselM
- 8S. OnurM
- 11E. KılınçM
- 16S. ErakovićD
- 17L. TómassonD
- 18M. BayoF
- 30Saikuba JarjuM
- 34G. GuarinoD
Substitutes
- 3I. DrapińskiD
- 10T. CoulibalyF
- 13Efe ÜstünG
- 20Y. KayanM
- 22Y. ÇiftD
- 23E. AlbakD
- 25B. BayazıtG
- 29H. TanD
- 42Y. SekongoM
Erzurumspor FK
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Cardoso | M | 66 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Amar Gerxhaliu | D | 89 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Orhan Ovacıklı | D | 82 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/5 |
| Nihad Mujakić | D | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Baiye | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Eren Tozlu | F | 66 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Elisha Owusu | M | 89 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guram Giorbelidze | D | 89 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Martín Rodríguez | M | 57 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ertuğrul Taşkıran | G | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mustafa Yumlu(C) | D | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lawrence Agyekum | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yakup Kırtay | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cengizhan Bayrak | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Festy Ebosele | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mustafa Fettahoglu | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nariman Akhundzade | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matija Orbanić | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gyrano Kerk | F | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Ibrahim Diabaté | F | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Sefa Akgün | M | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
Samsunspor
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strahinja Eraković | D | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Celil Yüksel | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Gabriele Guarino | D | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Elliot Watt | M | 65 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Samed Onur | M | 79 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Saikuba Jarju | F | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Okan Kocuk | G | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josafat Mendes | D | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Emre Kılınç(C) | F | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Mohamed Bayo | F | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/5 |
| Logi Tomasson | D | 89 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Haluk Mustafa Tan | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enes Albak | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Drapiński | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yunus Emre Çift | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bilal Bayazit | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Efe Yiğit Üstün | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yalçın Kayan | M | 10 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Tanguy Coulibaly | F | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Antoine Sekongo | M | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Samsunspor to win against Erzurumspor FK.
- What score did Fipster predict for Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Erzurumspor FK 0–1 Samsunspor.
- What were the win probabilities for Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
- Fipster's model gave Erzurumspor FK a 12% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 75% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 75% confidence — a high-confidence call.