Remo were the clean read; Neymar and the late noise did the rest

One clean hit was enough to stop this round feeling like a complete mugging, but only just. Fipster nailed Remo v Vitoria as a home win and even found the right scoreline, while too many of the other calls leaned on tidy home victories that never arrived. The pattern was plain enough: when the model trusted a strong home side with a controlled game, it looked sensible; when it tried to stretch that into bigger margins, or assumed familiar scorers would do the damage, Serie A took the offer and crossed it out.

Remo gave the model its one proper nod

The best call was not clever for clever’s sake. It was simply well anchored. Fipster backed Remo to beat Vitoria 2-0, and that worked because the pre-match read matched what happened on the pitch: Remo’s home control translated into two goals without needing any drama from their opponents. The scorer calls helped too. Alef Manga and Jája Silva were both flagged before kick-off, and both scored. That matters more than a lucky scoreline guess. It means the model identified where Remo’s threat was likely to come from rather than just waving at the badge and hoping for the best.

The expensive miss was Flamengo v Sao Paulo

This was where the model paid for over-weighting its own attacking story. Flamengo were priced up as if Pedro and Samuel Lino would carry them through a comfortable home win, but neither scored and Sao Paulo left with a draw after Jonathan Calleri did exactly what he had been called to do. The real sting is that Fipster did have Jonathan Calleri in view; what it missed was how much more likely this match was to be decided by one of those less glamorous moments at the back end of an attack. Léo Pereira’s goal changed the shape of it, and that is precisely why this one belongs in the miss column rather than under “nearly”. Nearly is for postcards.

The round belonged to players Fipster half-saw — and one it did not see at all

Kevin Viveros Rodallega was the clearest example of a call that mostly held together: he scored for Atletico Paranaense after being named pre-match, so the model got the right man even if it did not get every detail around him right. Felipe Anderson also rewarded a call in Palmeiras’ defeat by scoring their only goal, which is small comfort unless you are writing his name down for future rounds. Jonathan Calleri did his part for Sao Paulo as expected. Then there was Neymar, who turned Santos game against Chapecoense-sc into his own little argument with gravity by scoring twice despite not being called at all. Fabrizio Angileri did similar damage for Corinthians without pre-match backing, while Igor Gomes popped up for Atletico-MG in another result that went against the grain.

'That is probably the main lesson here: trust obvious attacking structure when it is supported by recent output, but do not assume familiar names will always be the ones cashing in. Round 20 punished certainty more than caution. Next time out, Fipster will need to keep room for late scorers, odd scorers and defenders with ideas above their station — football’s small way of reminding everyone that neat plans are only ever provisional.