Gremio vs Fluminense
Gremio snatch late draw against Fluminense
Fluminense's Hulk puts them ahead from the spot, but Gremio equalise just before the final whistle.
Fluminense looked set to take all three points when Hulk converted a penalty in the 65th minute. However, Gremio refused to lie down and found an equaliser in the 89th minute to secure a 1-1 draw. This result defied Fipster's prediction of a 2-1 home win, proving the model's confidence misplaced on this occasion.
Analysis
As the 20th round of the 2026 regular season unfolds, Gremio face off against Fluminense in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both sides boast attacking talents, but Gremio's home advantage and recent form give them the upper hand.
This fixture sees Gremio, who have historically held an edge in head-to-head clashes with 12 wins out of 20 meetings, take on Fluminense. The average goals per match between these sides is 2.4, indicating a lively game ahead. Gremio's home scoring rate of 1.7 goals per game further bolsters their confidence.
Gremio's attacking duo, Carlos Vinícius and Gabriel Mec, have been in fine form, contributing multiple goals recently and providing a potent threat upfront. Cristian Pavón's creativity and set-piece delivery add another dimension to their attack. Defensively, Viery's solidity will be crucial to contain Fluminense's forwards. On the other side, Fluminense's John Kennedy and Jefferson Savarino have been consistent scorers, supported by creative midfielders Luciano Acosta and Agustín Canobbio. Despite Fluminense's good recent scoring form away from home, the statistical edge and home advantage favour Gremio.
Prediction
The prediction leans strongly towards a Gremio home win with a 77% confidence level. The most probable scoreline is 2-1, with Gremio leading 1-0 at halftime. The match is expected to be competitive, with a moderate number of three cards likely to be shown.
Outcome probability
Match factors
Gremio's attacking duo in form
Carlos Vinícius and Gabriel Mec have shown consistent scoring ability, boosting Gremio's home attack.
Fluminense's creative midfield strength
Luciano Acosta and Agustín Canobbio provide key assists and chance creation, vital for away goals.
Gremio's home scoring rate advantage
Gremio averages 1.7 goals per home game, higher than their overall average, supporting predicted home win.
Fluminense's recent scoring consistency
Fluminense has scored in 4 of last 5 away matches, indicating good offensive form despite predicted loss.
Defensive solidity key for Gremio
Viery and Pedro Gabriel's defensive contributions are crucial to contain Fluminense's attack.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Gremio's home form, attacking consistency, and defensive stability should see them narrowly overcome Fluminense. Expect a spirited contest with Gremio edging it 2-1, maintaining their historical advantage in this fixture.
- Gremio have won 12 of 20 head-to-head matches against Fluminense.
- Average goals per head-to-head match is 2.4, suggesting an open game.
- Gremio average 1.7 goals per home game, higher than their overall average.
- Carlos Vinícius has multiple recent goals and high match ratings for Gremio.
- Cristian Pavón leads Gremio in assists with strong crossing and set-piece delivery.
- Fluminense have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- John Kennedy and Jefferson Savarino are key goal threats for Fluminense.
- Three cards are the most likely disciplinary outcome for this match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Gremio
Away — Fluminense
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Hércules
Yellow Card
Guga
Yellow Card
Guilherme Arana
Hulk
Penalty
Pavón
Noriega
Silva
Yellow Card
Acosta
Hulk
Carlos Vinícius
Yellow Card
Tetê
Amuzu
Canobbio
Yellow Card
Marlon
Hércules
Serna
Goal
Assist: Jovane Cabral
Nardoni
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 |  Gremio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 |  Vasco DA Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
Match Statistics
Gremio
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 4W. KannemannD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 7C. PavónD
- 9F. AmuzuM
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 21TetêM
- 23MarlonD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 17DodiM
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 24Thiago BeltrameG
- 30Matheus NascimentoF
- 37Gabriel MecF
- 43Luis EduardoD
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 65Riquelme FreitasM
- 77Jovane CabralF
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 7HulkF
- 8MartinelliM
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 22J. FreytesD
- 23GugaD
- 32L. AcostaM
- 35HérculesM
- 90K. SernaM
Substitutes
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 4IgnacioD
- 6RenêD
- 10PH GansoM
- 14G. CanoF
- 16NonatoM
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 27MarceloG
- 28RiquelmeF
- 30Y. SoteldoF
- 46Julio FidelisD
- 94OtávioM
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Pavón | D | 49 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Marlon | D | 49 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Gabriel Grando | G | 49 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francis Amuzu | M | 49 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 49 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tetê | M | 49 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Mathias Villasanti | M | 49 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walter Kannemann(C) | D | 49 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 49 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Erick Noriega | M | 49 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Nardoni | M | 49 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Wagner Leonardo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jovane Cabral | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Braithwaite | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Guedes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Mec | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Freitas | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Beltrame | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Nascimento | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Enamorado | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Pablo Freytes | D | 49 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fábio | G | 49 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Silva(C) | D | 49 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Luciano Acosta | M | 49 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Agustín Canobbio | M | 49 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martinelli | M | 49 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hércules | M | 49 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Hulk | F | 49 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guga | D | 49 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Serna | M | 49 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Yeferson Soteldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignácio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ganso | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nonato | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Germán Cano | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Pitaluga | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Júlio Fidelis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Felipe | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renê | D | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |