Ajax’s big win is the lone bright spot in a tough Eredivisie day for Fipster
Five Eredivisie fixtures, one TICK, and four MISSes. The model nailed the outcome only once, with mixed success on exact scores and halftime calls. Confidence was high but results were often surprising.
Today’s Eredivisie round served up plenty of goals but not many happy returns for the Fipster prediction model. Out of five fixtures, only one earned a TICK grade — Groningen versus Ajax — where the model correctly called the outcome and got several other dimensions right, though it missed the exact score and halftime result.
The Ajax game was a rare moment of clarity: a 5-2 away win that matched the predicted winner and saw both teams scoring as expected. The model also got BTTS (both teams to score) and over/under calls right here, showing it can still spot when a goal-fest is on the cards.
Elsewhere, things went pear-shaped. PEC Zwolle’s 4-1 thrashing of Go Ahead Eagles was a shock to the system; the model had confidently tipped an away win but ended up with a MISS. Similarly, NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard drew 2-2 despite predictions favouring Fortuna to take all three points. Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar also shared spoils at 2-2 against expectations.
Twente versus Utrecht continued the trend of surprises with Utrecht edging a 2-1 victory while the model leaned towards Twente winning. Interestingly, across these misses, BTTS and over/under predictions mostly held firm — so at least we knew goals were coming, just not who’d be celebrating.
Confidence ratings were often on the higher side (“overconfident”), which makes these misses sting a bit more. Halftime predictions were hit or miss too; only two fixtures saw correct halftime calls.
So while today’s haul isn’t exactly cause for celebration, we’ll take that single TICK as proof that even on off days, there’s some method in the madness.
Model record: 0 STAR · 1 TICK · 4 MISS
Day grade: C+
