Groningen vs Ajax
Ajax cruise past Groningen in five-goal thriller
J. Brandt and J. Mokio shine as Ajax secure a commanding win despite a missed penalty.
Ajax asserted their dominance with a 5-2 victory over Groningen in the Eredivisie, powered by J. Brandt's brace and J. Mokio's double strike. Groningen fought back with goals from B. Willumsson and T. van Bergen, who also missed a late penalty, but it wasn't enough to stem the tide. Despite an early missed penalty by D. Klaassen, Ajax maintained control throughout. Fipster's prediction of an away win was spot on, though the margin was more emphatic than anticipated.
Outcome probability
Groningen and Ajax face off in the ninth round of the regular season, with both sides eager to add points to their tallies. Ajax, sitting higher in the league, look to maintain their momentum, while Groningen aim to upset the odds.
Match factors
Ajax's superior scoring and assist stats
Ajax averages 2.75 goals per game with top scorers Brandt and Arokodare in strong form
Groningen's consistent scoring streak
Groningen has scored in their last 5 matches, showing offensive resilience despite injuries
Ajax's creative midfielders to unlock Groningen defense
Gloukh and Brandt's high assist and goal involvement likely to create chances against Groningen's weakened defense
Groningen's defensive injury crisis
Seven defenders confirmed out weakens Groningen's backline, increasing Ajax's scoring chances
The context
Ajax currently hold 15 points from eight games, placing them fifth in the league, while Groningen have 11 points from seven games, sitting eighth. Historically, Ajax have dominated this fixture, winning 15 of their 20 meetings, and the average goals per match between these sides is a lively 3.1.
Key insights
Julian Brandt
Ajax
Top scorer for Ajax with 4 goals, showing strong recent form with 3 goals in last 5 matches, making him a key threat.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals in 7 appearances, 0.57 goals/game
Oscar Gloukh
Ajax
Leading assist provider with 4 assists, creative playmaker likely to unlock Groningen's defence.
Eredivisie 26/274 assists in 7 appearances, 0.57 assists/game
Davy Klaassen
Ajax
Aggressive midfielder with 3 goals and 2 yellow cards, could influence the game's tempo but must avoid disciplinary trouble.
Eredivisie 26/273 goals in 7 appearances, 2 yellow cards
Analysis
Ajax's attacking prowess is evident this season, averaging 2.75 goals per game, with Julian Brandt leading the charge with four goals in seven appearances. Oscar Gloukh's creativity, with four assists, adds to their threat. Groningen, despite a defensive injury crisis, have shown resilience by scoring in their last five matches. However, Ajax's superior goal difference and creative midfielders are likely to unlock Groningen's weakened defence.
Key facts
- 1.Ajax have won 15 of 20 meetings against Groningen.
- 2.Average goals per match in head-to-head is 3.1.
- 3.Ajax rank 5th with 15 points from 8 games.
- 4.Groningen rank 8th with 11 points from 7 games.
- 5.Ajax have a superior goal difference of +10 this season.
- 6.Julian Brandt is Ajax's top scorer with 4 goals in 7 games.
- 7.Oscar Gloukh leads Ajax with 4 assists in 7 games.
- 8.Groningen have scored in their last 5 matches despite defensive injuries.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards an Ajax away win with a halftime score of 0-1 and a fulltime score of 1-2. The match is expected to be competitive, with a moderate number of cards, around four, reflecting a spirited contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Groningen
No standout top scorers flagged for Groningen
Away — Ajax
The verdict
Expect a tightly contested match where Ajax's quality and depth should see them through. Groningen will provide resistance, but the visitors' attacking edge and recent form make them favourites to take all three points.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 16:40 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Klaassen
Missed Penalty
Penalty cancelled
Brandt
Bouwman
van Bergen
Yellow Card
Janse
Yellow Card
Willumsson
Goal cancelled
Brandt
Assist: Wijndal
Ondrejka
Mokio
Brandt
Marcos Leonardo
Mokio
Assist: Klaassen
Klaassen
Gloukh
Willumsson
van der Werff
de Jonge
Rente
van Bergen
van Bergen
Missed Penalty
Rosa
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | +21 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +17 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +22 | 23 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +6 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
Match Statistics
Groningen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1E. VaessenG
- 3T. BlokzijlD
- 5M. RenteD
- 8T. de JongeM
- 9B. WillumssonF
- 11J. OndrejkaM
- 14J. SchreudersD
- 17D. van der WerffM
- 24P. ClementM
- 26T. van BergenM
- 33H. HateboerD
Substitutes
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 4M. CsingerD
- 7T. HernesM
- 13L. ŠtubljarG
- 16A. NordinM
- 18T. LandM
- 19O. ZawadaF
- 20Nils EggensF
- 30P. BoevinkG
- 34R. MetuF
- 42J. MosselaarD
- 44Besnik MashukuM
Ajax
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 5O. WijndalD
- 8J. BrandtF
- 10O. GloukhF
- 18D. KlaassenM
- 24J. MokioM
- 30A. BouwmanD
- 36D. JanseD
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
Substitutes
- 6T. KehrerD
- 11V. TsygankovF
- 15Y. BaasD
- 21Jofre TorrentsD
- 26M. PaesG
- 28Y. BissoumaM
- 43Rayane BounidaF
- 51C. SetfordG
- 67Mohamed AbdallaM
- 68A. OuazaneM
- 99T. ArokodareF
Groningen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Willumsson | F | 83 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Metu | F | 7 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| T. van Bergen | M | 90 | 6.7 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Nils Eggens | F | 7 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. de Jonge | M | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| P. Clement | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 3/5 |
| E. Vaessen | G | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Hateboer | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. van der Werff | M | 83 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| T. Blokzijl | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Schreuders | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| J. Ondrejka | M | 67 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| M. Rente | D | 83 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Land | M | 7 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wouter Prins | D | 7 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Csinger | D | 23 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Mosselaar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Boevink | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Zawada | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Štubljar | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Hernes | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Nordin | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Besnik Mashuku | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Ajax
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Mokio | M | 90 | 8.9 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. Brandt | F | 74 | 8.7 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| A. Bouwman | D | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| O. Wijndal | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| D. Klaassen | M | 82 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| D. Janse | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Amrabat | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Arokodare | F | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| M. ter Stegen | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Rosa | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Marcos Leonardo | F | 74 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Rayane Bounida | F | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ouazane | M | 16 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Y. Bissouma | M | 8 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Gloukh | F | 82 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/4 |
| C. Setford | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Paes | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jofre Torrents | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohamed Abdalla | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Tsygankov | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Kehrer | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Baas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Groningen vs Ajax?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Ajax to win against Groningen.
- What score did Fipster predict for Groningen vs Ajax?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Groningen 1–2 Ajax.
- What were the win probabilities for Groningen vs Ajax?
- Fipster's model gave Groningen a 2% chance of winning, Ajax a 95% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.