Dušan Vlahović blew the round open, but the model’s cleanest win came in Samsun

The round was mostly right in direction, less so in detail

Fipster leaned away from home in several places and that part of the map was not absurd. Fenerbahçe did win at Samsunspor, Gaziantep FK did lose to Rizespor, and Beşiktaş did make short work of Çorum FK. The trouble was that the round kept punishing tidy scorelines. A 1-0 became a 6-2. A controlled home win became a draw. An away edge became a home comeback. The model had the broad weather right often enough; it just kept missing where the rain would actually land.

The call that landed properly: Samsunspor against Fenerbahçe

This was the cleanest hit because the model read the balance of power correctly and did not get greedy about it. It called an away win, and Fenerbahçe delivered one without needing to chase the game. Vedat Muriqi scoring early gave the prediction room to breathe, and Oğuz Aydın adding the second after half-time matched the idea behind the pick: Fenerbahçe had enough control to decide it on their terms. The scoreline was not exact, but the logic was sound. Sometimes that is as good as it gets without pretending to be cleverer than you are.

Where we over-fancied order: Konyaspor against Kocaelispor

This was the miss that stung most because it looked like one of those straightforward home calls before kick-off. Fipster backed Konyaspor to edge it 1-0, but Kocaelispor were the side that found the decisive moments. The model over-weighted home control and under-read how quickly a match can tilt once an own goal opens the door. Tanguy Banhie Zoukrou’s own goal changed the tone, then Massadio Haïdara and Metehan Altunbaş finished the job for Kocaelispor. That is not a small correction; that is a complete rewrite of the afternoon.

The players who actually owned the round were mostly not on our sheet beforehand

That is where this round really bit. Dušan Vlahović scored three for Beşiktaş, yet he had not been called pre-match, which made his burst feel less like confirmation than interruption. Victor Osimhen also scored for Galatasaray without being flagged before kick-off, while Mohamed Salah turned up for Trabzonspor in defeat and still left his mark on a game Fipster had pointed towards an away win. On top of that came Davinson Sánchez Mina for Galatasaray, Mbaye Diagne for Amed, and Massadio Haïdara for Kocaelispor — all unforeseen scorers who changed matches rather than merely decorating them.

There were still useful signals inside all that noise. Gabriel Sara scored for Galatasaray and also supplied a calm sort of proof that their attacking structure can survive a wobble. Oğuz Aydın mattered again for Fenerbahçe with both a goal and an assist, which is exactly why he belonged in any serious pre-match conversation even if he was not named there by Fipster this time. And Mehmet Yeşil’s assist for Amed showed up in a result built on late pressure rather than early certainty; his rating backed up what his pass already suggested.

So the lesson is fairly plain: keep trusting strong directional reads, but be wary of assuming they will arrive through polite scorelines or familiar scorers. This round rewarded teams that could absorb a bad moment and then find someone unexpected to settle things. Next week, Fipster will need less faith in neat margins and more respect for late chaos from players who have not bothered to introduce themselves beforehand.