Sweden, Switzerland and Bosnia made the loudest arguments while Fipster spent the round chasing the wrong end of the pitch

The round had a clear habit: the model could spot the safer home wins, but it kept underestimating how far a match could tilt once one side found a proper edge. Austria, Sweden and Slovenia all landed as expected enough. The trouble was that the bigger stories belonged to the teams Fipster had treated as secondary or merely awkward. Ireland did not just nick a result in Israel; they took the game apart. Bosnia & Herzegovina did something similar in Romania. And Switzerland were never especially polite about Scotland’s evening.

Sweden v Poland was the cleanest read

If one call showed why the model still has value, it was Sweden against Poland. Fipster backed a home win and got the broad shape right because it had identified Sweden’s attacking form and Poland’s dependence on a smaller set of creators. That held up neatly. Erik Nygren scored early, Yasin Abbas Ayari added another, and Viktor Gyökeres finished it off. The important part is not just that Sweden won; it is that the goals came from exactly the sort of spread Fipster had been leaning towards — not one isolated burst, but repeated pressure from players who were already in the frame before kick-off.

Israel was where the model overreached most badly

The ugliest miss was Israel against Rep. Of Ireland. Fipster saw a narrow home win and instead got a three-goal away performance that arrived before Israel had settled into anything useful. The mistake was not simply picking the wrong side; it was giving too much weight to Israel’s supposed attacking threat and too little to Ireland’s ability to turn recent defensive solidity into an actual away plan. Troy Parrott opened it, Adam Idah doubled it, and Jack Moylan made sure there was no rescue act lurking in the margins. Jack Moylan also turned up with a goal and an assist, which is exactly the sort of individual influence that makes a prediction look tidy on paper and foolish by tea-time.

The names that really ran League B - 2

This was also a round for players Fipster did not flag beforehand. That matters more than it sounds. The reconciliation sheet is blunt about it: most of the scorers who shaped this round were unforeseen rather than called. David Affengruber started Austria off against Kosovo, Junior Adamu added another for Austria, and Carney Chukwuemeka made sure that one stayed comfortable enough to count as a proper hit rather than a nervous shrug. Elsewhere, Ricardo Rodríguez Araya and Nico Elvedi scored for Switzerland in Scotland, while Mohamed Amdouni finished that job late; Sandi Lovrić and Aljoša Matko did likewise for Slovenia against FYR Macedonia; Armin Gigović, Tarik Muharemović, Haris Tabaković and Ermin Mahmić drove Bosnia & Herzegovina past Romania; and Alexandru Cicâldău at least gave Romania something back before they ran out of road.

The useful takeaway is simple enough: Fipster still reads some matchups well when the likely winner is also the likeliest source of control, but this round punished any assumption that modest confidence meant modest danger. League B - 2 belonged to teams with sharper finishing than expected and to players who were not on many pre-match notes at all. Next time out, the model will need to be less trusting of neat home-win logic and more alert to sides capable of turning one good spell into three goals before anyone has time to admire the spreadsheet.