Sweden vs Poland
Sweden secures solid win over Poland
Nygren's early strike sets the tone for a confident Swedish victory.
Sweden took control early with B. Nygren's goal in the 8th minute, setting the stage for a 3-1 triumph over Poland in the UEFA Nations League. Despite S. Szymański pulling one back just before half-time, Sweden's Y. Ayari and V. Gyökeres sealed the win with second-half goals. Fipster's medium-confidence prediction for a Swedish win was on the money, though the margin was a bit more comfortable than forecast.
Outcome probability
Sweden and Poland face off in a League B encounter that promises to be a tight affair. Both teams have shown glimpses of attacking quality, setting the stage for a competitive match.
Match factors
Sweden's attacking form strong at home
Sweden scored 2 goals and won their last home match, showing positive momentum
Poland's clean sheet record at home
Poland kept a clean sheet in their last home match, indicating defensive solidity
Sweden's attackers in good recent form
Isak and Gyökeres both scored in last match, providing Sweden with strong attacking options
Poland relies on Zieliński and Lewandowski for creativity and goals
Zieliński's playmaking and Lewandowski's experience are key to Poland's attack
The context
In this League B round, Sweden come in with a winning record from their opening match, having scored twice and conceded once. Poland, meanwhile, have yet to find the net in this competition and suffered a defeat in their first outing. Historically, these sides have met three times, with Sweden winning twice and Poland once, and their encounters have been quite open, averaging four goals per game.
Key insights
- A
A. Isak
Sweden
Isak scored in the last home match with a strong rating, making him a key offensive threat.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal, 7.51 rating in last home match
- V
V. Gyökeres
Sweden
Gyökeres scored and impressed as a high-impact substitute, adding firepower to Sweden's attack.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal, 7.84 rating in last home match
- P
P. Zieliński
Poland
Zieliński is Poland's top midfielder with high shot volume, crucial for their creativity.
UEFA Nations League 26/277.2 rating, 4 shots in last match
- R
R. Lewandowski
Poland
Lewandowski remains central to Poland's attack despite no goals in the last match, bringing experience and leadership.
UEFA Nations League 26/2787 minutes played last match
Analysis
Sweden's recent home form is encouraging, with attackers like Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres both finding the net in their last match, providing a potent offensive threat. Poland rely heavily on the creativity and experience of Piotr Zieliński and Robert Lewandowski, though they have yet to score in this competition. Defensively, Poland have shown solidity at home, keeping a clean sheet in their last match, but Sweden's attacking momentum at home could prove decisive. The predicted 2-1 scoreline reflects a competitive match with Sweden just edging ahead.
Key facts
- 1.Sweden have a 1-0-0 record in this competition, scoring 2 and conceding 1.
- 2.Poland have a 0-1-0 record with no goals scored so far in this competition.
- 3.In three previous meetings, Sweden have won twice and Poland once, with no draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches between these teams average 4.0 goals per game.
- 5.Sweden's attackers Isak and Gyökeres scored in their last home match.
- 6.Poland kept a clean sheet in their last home match, showing defensive strength.
- 7.The predicted fulltime scoreline of 2-1 is the most probable home win outcome.
- 8.Four cards are expected in the match, indicating a moderately physical game.
Prediction
The forecast is for Sweden to claim a 2-1 victory. The most probable halftime score is 1-0, suggesting a tight first half before Sweden extend their lead. With four cards expected, the match could be physical but not overly so. This prediction balances Sweden's attacking form and home advantage against Poland's defensive resilience and key players' influence.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Sweden
Away — Poland
The verdict
All signs point to a closely fought contest with Sweden narrowly coming out on top. Their recent scoring form and historical edge in head-to-heads give them the slight upper hand, but Poland's experienced midfield and defence will ensure they remain competitive until the final whistle.
Prediction generated 25 Sep 2026, 20:42 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Nygren
Assist: Lindelöf
Svensson
Yellow Card
Puchacz
Yellow Card
Szymański
Assist: Zalewski
Zieliński
Yellow Card
Zeneli
Ayari
Assist: Nanasi
Puchacz
Gyökeres
Assist: Wålemark
Zieliński
Cash
Szymański
Nygren
Wålemark
Wiśniewski
Ayari
Gyökeres
Lewandowski
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Sweden
4-4-2Starting XI
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 5G. GudmundssonD
- 7L. BergvallM
- 8D. SvenssonD
- 10B. NygrenF
- 11P. WålemarkM
- 12V. JohanssonG
- 15C. StarfeltD
- 17V. GyökeresF
- 18Y. AyariM
- 22B. ZeneliM
Substitutes
- 1N. TörnqvistG
- 2G. LagerbielkeD
- 4E. StroudM
- 6J. MellbergD
- 9P. AbrahamF
- 13W. SwedbergF
- 14E. SkoglundD
- 16J. KarlströmM
- 19S. NanasiM
- 20H. LarssonM
- 21A. BernhardssonF
- 23M. EllborgG
Poland
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1M. BułkaG
- 2M. CashM
- 3P. WiśniewskiD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 10P. ZielińskiM
- 13M. ŻukowskiF
- 14J. KiwiorD
- 15T. PuchaczM
- 16W. NowakM
- 20S. SzymańskiF
- 21N. ZalewskiF
Substitutes
- 4T. KędzioraD
- 6B. SliszM
- 7W. MońkaD
- 8K. UrbaÅskiM
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 11K. ŚwiderskiF
- 12M. KochalskiG
- 17M. SkóraśF
- 18M. RegułaM
- 19P. FrankowskiM
- 22S. AbramowiczG
- 23K. PotulskiD
Sweden
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Ayari | M | 89 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| B. Nygren | F | 80 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| V. Gyökeres | F | 89 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/5 |
| V. Johansson | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Lindelöf | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| P. Wålemark | M | 80 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2/3 |
| D. Svensson | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 1/1 |
| S. Nanasi | M | 27 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| G. Gudmundsson | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| A. Bernhardsson | F | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Bergvall | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| W. Swedberg | F | 1 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Starfelt | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Zeneli | M | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| J. Karlström | M | 1 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Larsson | M | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| J. Mellberg | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Skoglund | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ellborg | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Stroud | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Abraham | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Törnqvist | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Lagerbielke | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Poland
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Szymański | F | 76 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | — |
| N. Zalewski | F | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 2/3 |
| M. Żukowski | F | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | — |
| T. Puchacz | M | 65 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| J. Kiwior | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Bednarek | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Zieliński | M | 76 | 6.4 | — | — | 6 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| M. Skóraś | F | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Świderski | F | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Wiśniewski | D | 88 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Cash | M | 76 | 6.1 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Lewandowski | F | 2 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Nowak | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| K. UrbaÅski | M | 14 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Frankowski | M | 25 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Bułka | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Reguła | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Mońka | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Potulski | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Kędziora | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Slisz | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kochalski | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Abramowicz | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Sweden vs Poland?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sweden to win against Poland.
- What score did Fipster predict for Sweden vs Poland?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Sweden 2–1 Poland.
- What were the win probabilities for Sweden vs Poland?
- Fipster's model gave Sweden a 52% chance of winning, Poland a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 52% confidence — a medium-confidence call.