Serie A shocks and near-misses: model’s crystal ball gets a bit foggy
Three Serie A fixtures, three different stories for the Fipster model. Napoli’s narrow win was the only prediction to earn a tick, while Lecce and Sassuolo pulled off results that left the model scratching its head. BTTS and over-under calls mostly on point, but outcome predictions? Not so much.
Today’s Serie A action served up a mixed bag for our trusty Fipster model. Napoli’s 1-0 victory over Bologna was the highlight, earning a neat tick for correctly calling the outcome even if the exact scoreline and other finer details slipped through the cracks.
Meanwhile, Lecce’s 3-2 win against Monza and Sassuolo’s identical 3-2 triumph over Juventus were both surprises that caught the model off guard. It predicted away wins in both cases, so those misses sting a bit more — especially with Sassuolo where confidence was high but accuracy low.
On the bright side, the model did get some calls right: both high-scoring games saw correct predictions on both teams scoring and over-under thresholds. So it wasn’t all doom and gloom; it just struggled to pick the winners today.
Halftime predictions were a no-show across all three matches — not even close this time around. Confidence ratings ranged from appropriate to overconfident, which might explain some of those misses.
Overall, with zero stars, one tick, and two misses, it was a day for humble pie rather than celebration. But hey, even the best models have off days — we’ll take that one on the chin and look forward to better luck next round.
Day grade: B-
