MLS predictions face a tough day as model nails just a third of the fixtures
Out of nine MLS matches, the Fipster model managed three TICKs but stumbled on six, including some surprising upsets. While it got the outcome right in a few games, exact scores and halftime calls proved elusive. A mixed bag that keeps us humble and hopeful.
Today’s Major League Soccer round was a bit of a rollercoaster for the Fipster prediction model. The headline? Only three out of nine fixtures earned a TICK, with no STAR performances to brag about. That means six matches slipped through the cracks, reminding us that even the best models can have an off day.
Among the bright spots, FC Dallas edged out Portland Timbers 2-1, with the model correctly calling the outcome and both teams to score. Similarly, St. Louis City’s 4-2 win over Minnesota United FC saw accurate outcome and BTTS predictions, despite missing the exact scoreline. Colorado Rapids also secured a TICK with their narrow 1-0 victory against CF Montreal, nailing outcome, BTTS, over-under, and even halftime correctness — a neat little hat-trick of accuracy.
On the flip side, Sporting Kansas City’s 3-1 win over LAFC defied expectations as the model predicted an away win. Real Salt Lake’s goalless home defeat to New York City FC was another surprise where confidence perhaps got ahead of reality — all prediction dimensions missed here. The Los Angeles Galaxy and Seattle Sounders drew 1-1 despite a confident home win forecast from Fipster.
Other misses included San Jose Earthquakes falling 0-1 to Houston Dynamo against predictions, Vancouver Whitecaps losing 1-2 to Austin despite an optimistic forecast for a big home win, and Chicago Fire’s narrow loss to New England Revolution where again outcome and exact score were off.
Overall, today’s results show that while Fipster has its moments — especially in calling outcomes and BTTS in some tight matches — there’s still room for improvement on exact scores and halftime calls. Confidence ratings varied appropriately but sometimes leaned overconfident when reality had other plans.
We’ll take those three TICKs as proof that the model had its day somewhere in there. Onwards and upwards!
Day grade: B-
