MLS day of near misses and a couple of tidy ticks
Seven matches, no stars, but two tidy ticks to keep the model's spirits afloat. Plenty of goals and BTTS calls got it right, though outcome predictions proved trickier than expected.
Today’s Major League Soccer fixtures served up a feast of goals and a fair share of prediction puzzles for our trusty Fipster model. Across seven matches, the model didn’t quite hit the jackpot with any star-grade calls but managed two solid ticks to remind us it’s not all doom and gloom.
Philadelphia Union’s 3-2 win over Atlanta United FC was one highlight where the model got the outcome right and correctly anticipated an over-under scenario, even if the exact score and BTTS calls missed the mark. Similarly, FC Cincinnati’s 4-2 victory against San Jose Earthquakes earned a tick with correct outcome, BTTS, and over-under predictions — a neat little hat-trick of accuracy there.
On the flip side, Inter Miami versus Columbus Crew ended in a 2-2 draw that caught the model off guard on outcome and exact score, despite nailing both BTTS and over-under calls. Vancouver Whitecaps’ 1-1 stalemate with Los Angeles FC also saw similar mixed fortunes: correct on BTTS but missing out on outcome and halftime predictions.
The New York Red Bulls’ narrow 3-2 win against Orlando City SC was another curveball, with the model predicting an Orlando victory instead. DC United’s 2-2 draw with Nashville SC followed suit — accurate on BTTS and over-under but off on outcome again. And finally, CF Montreal’s 2-2 draw with New England Revolution was a tough one for the model, missing all key prediction dimensions.
Overall, today’s batch showed that while Fipster has an eye for goals (BTTS correct in five matches) and can usually size up whether games will be high-scoring or not (over-under correct in five), calling exact outcomes remains its Achilles’ heel. Confidence ratings leaned towards being overconfident in some misses — a humbling reminder that soccer loves to keep us guessing.
So no stars today but two ticks to keep us smiling through the near misses. We’ll take those wins where we can get them — after all, even models have their off days.
Model record: 0 STAR · 2 TICK · 5 MISS. Day grade: C+.
