Tom Slončík and Mojmír Chytil did the damage while the model spent too long admiring the wrong names

Three correct calls out of eight is not a disaster, but it is a reminder that this round was built on narrow margins and a few very unhelpful assumptions. Fipster found the right side of the result in Hradec Králové, Artis and Slavia Praha, yet it also leaned too hard on home wins in places where the match state turned quickly or never settled at all. The round’s most expensive mistake was not just missing a scoreline; it was trusting familiar attacking shapes when the decisive names were elsewhere.

The read that held up: Slavia Praha kept it narrow, and Mojmír Chytil did the rest

The cleanest win for Fipster came with Slavia Praha against Pardubice. The model had the home side winning by a single goal, and that is exactly how it played out. More importantly, the shape of the game matched the call: Slavia Praha were expected to edge it rather than run away with it, and Mojmír Chytil supplied both goals needed to make that case look sensible rather than lucky. His second-half brace was backed by a strong outing from Lukáš Provod, which matters because this was not one of those predictions rescued by a random late scramble. It was a narrow home win with the right sort of scorer profile attached to it.

Where we overreached: Teplice v Plzen turned into a mess very quickly

The miss that hurts most is Teplice against Plzen, because Fipster did not merely get the winner wrong; it got almost everything about the game state wrong. A tidy home win prediction met a 5-5 draw, which is less a miss than a full argument with arithmetic. The model over-weighted control and under-weighted how many different players could get involved once the match opened up. Patrik Hrošovský stood out for Plzen with a goal and an assist, while Matěj Radosta answered for Teplice with a goal and two assists. That is where the prediction broke: not on one rogue finish, but on several players taking turns to ruin any neat conclusion.

The round belonged to Tom Slončík, Mojmír Chytil and the names Fipster never had down first

The standout performers were mostly outsiders from Fipster’s point of view. Tom Slončík scored twice for Hradec Králové in a result the model did get right on outcome but not on personnel; he was one of the round’s clearest unforeseen scorers. Mojmír Chytil did something similar for Slavia Praha, scoring twice and turning a correct result into one of the better reads of the weekend even though he had not been called pre-match. Elsewhere, Patrik Hrošovský’s goal and assist for Plzen showed why his side stayed alive in that wild draw, while Matěj Radosta’s two assists underlined how much damage can be done without being the headline scorer.

There were also quieter lessons in who did not show up on Fipster’s sheet. Martin Cedidla scored for FK Jablonec in another correct home-side call that still needed an unforeseen finisher to make it work. Aleš Čermák gave Bohemians 1905 an early lift at Zlín, which helped turn one more home-win forecast inside out. The pattern is plain enough: this round was less about getting team strength wildly wrong than about missing which individual would actually settle each match.

A useful bruise before next weekend

The encouraging part is that Fipster still found three correct results in a round where several games hinged on late or unexpected scorers. The awkward part is that its misses clustered around player selection rather than broad team direction, which is usually where confidence gets expensive fastest. Next week will ask whether those scorer calls can be sharpened without losing sight of the result itself. That would be handy. Football does enjoy making simple jobs look optional.