ST Johnstone vs Motherwell
Saints and Steelmen share spoils in thriller
Motherwell snatch a late equaliser to deny St Johnstone a home win.
St Johnstone looked set for victory after T. Steven's early strike and a tense battle with Motherwell, who fought back through I. Said and Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise to take the lead after the break. However, J. Campbell's stoppage-time goal rescued a point for the hosts, ensuring a 2-2 draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a narrow home win.
Outcome probability
ST Johnstone and Motherwell face off in what promises to be a tightly contested regular season match. Both sides have had their ups and downs this campaign, but the home team holds a slight edge in the standings and form.
Match factors
J. Fowler's home scoring form
Fowler's 6 goals in 9 games, including strong home scoring, give ST Johnstone a clear attacking edge
ST Johnstone's creative midfield
Jamie Gullan leads assists with 2 in 7 games, providing key chances for Fowler and others
Defensive solidity from Diabate and McAlear
Diabate's passing and McAlear's tackling above league average help stabilize defense amid conceding streak
No confirmed absences for ST Johnstone
Full squad availability boosts chances of predicted scorers and assisters impacting the match
Motherwell's defensive struggles
Motherwell concedes in all last 5 matches, increasing likelihood of ST Johnstone scoring multiple goals
The context
ST Johnstone currently sit 8th in the league with 12 points from 10 games, while Motherwell are 10th with 8 points from 9 matches. This positions the home side as favourites, though Motherwell will be eager to upset the apple cart and improve their standing.
Key insights
J. Fowler
ST Johnstone
Fowler's 6 goals in 9 games, including a strong home scoring rate, give ST Johnstone a clear attacking edge.
Premiership 26/276 goals in 9 appearances, 0.67 goals/game
J. Gullan
ST Johnstone
Gullan leads assists with 2 in 7 games, providing key chances for Fowler and others.
Premiership 26/272 assists in 7 appearances, 0.29 assists/game
C. Diabate
ST Johnstone
Diabate's excellent passing accuracy and high minutes played help stabilize the defence.
Premiership 26/271 goal in 8 appearances, 0.13 goals/game
- R
R. McAlear
ST Johnstone
McAlear's tackling and interceptions are above league average, crucial for breaking opposition attacks.
Premiership 26/271.78 tackles/game
- T
T. Sparrow
Motherwell
Sparrow is Motherwell's top tackler with 2.56 tackles/game, key defensive figure to watch.
Premiership 26/272.56 tackles/game, 56% duel win rate
Analysis
The match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted 1-1 scoreline at halftime reflecting a balanced first half. ST Johnstone's attacking threat is led by J. Fowler, who boasts 6 goals in 9 appearances and a strong home scoring record. Midfielder Jamie Gullan's creative influence, with 2 assists in 7 games, will be key to unlocking Motherwell's defence. On the defensive side, ST Johnstone benefit from the solidity of C. Diabate and R. McAlear, whose passing accuracy and tackling help stabilize the backline. Motherwell, however, have conceded in their last five matches, which bodes well for the home side's chances of scoring multiple goals.
Key facts
- 1.ST Johnstone are 8th in the league with 12 points from 10 games (W3 D3 L4).
- 2.Motherwell are 10th with 8 points from 9 games (W2 D2 L5).
- 3.J. Fowler is ST Johnstone's top scorer with 6 goals in 9 appearances.
- 4.Jamie Gullan leads ST Johnstone's assists with 2 in 7 games.
- 5.Motherwell have conceded in their last 5 matches.
- 6.Predicted halftime score is 1-1, with a final score of 2-1 to ST Johnstone.
- 7.Most likely total cards in the match is 4, indicating a competitive but controlled game.
Prediction
We expect ST Johnstone to come out on top with a 2-1 victory. The home side should find the net early, with Motherwell responding to level the score by halftime. Ultimately, ST Johnstone's attacking edge and home advantage will see them score the decisive goal in the second half. The match is also likely to be competitive but controlled, with around four cards expected.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — ST Johnstone
Away — Motherwell
No standout top scorers flagged for Motherwell
The verdict
This encounter should provide an entertaining contest with ST Johnstone narrowly prevailing. Fans can look forward to a match where tactical discipline meets attacking flair, culminating in a deserved home win.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 15:52 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Steven
Said
Assist: Emmanuel
McGhee
Levitt
Alıç
Yellow Card
Said
Yellow Card
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
Assist: Girdwood-Reich
Said
Gullan
Paton
Holt
Sparrow
Yellow Card
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
Steven
Girdwood-Reich
Campbell
Assist: Chalmers
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 28 |
| 6 |  Falkirk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 |  ST Johnstone | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 |  ST Mirren | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 9 |  Motherwell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
Match Statistics
ST Johnstone
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1T. StewardG
- 2E. AlıçD
- 3C. DiabateD
- 7T. StevenM
- 8J. HoltM
- 9J. FowlerF
- 10J. GullanM
- 19D. FinlaysonD
- 26M. ToddD
- 42R. McAlearM
- 99R. PatonM
Substitutes
- 4M. BoyesD
- 6B. MikulićD
- 14M. FouldsD
- 20R. SinclairG
- 22D. SchmidtF
- 23L. ChalmersM
- 25M. TaitM
- 30J. CotterillM
- 32J. CampbellM
Motherwell
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 6J. McGheeM
- 7T. SparrowD
- 18Tawanda Jethro MaswanhiseM
- 19I. SaidM
- 45M. EmmanuelD
- 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
- 63D. LevittM
- 71J. HodgeM
Substitutes
- 2S. O'DonnellD
- 4Jamie Knight-LebelD
- 8L. FadingerM
- 13J. KangaM
- 15E. BjörgólfssonF
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 21M. ConnellyG
- 27M. BoothM
- 77W. VogtF
ST Johnstone
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Steven | M | 80 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| T. Steward | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Campbell | M | 24 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Holt | M | 67 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| R. McAlear | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Todd | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| D. Schmidt | F | 24 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| D. Finlayson | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| C. Diabate | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Cotterill | M | 23 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Fowler | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| L. Chalmers | M | 10 | 6.4 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| E. Alıç | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Paton | M | 66 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Gullan | M | 66 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| M. Foulds | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Sinclair | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Tait | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Mikulić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Boyes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Motherwell
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise | M | 80 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | — |
| J. Hodge | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1/3 |
| I. Said | M | 62 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1/2 |
| M. Emmanuel | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| J. Girdwood-Reich | D | 88 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Fadinger | M | 44 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Charles-Cook | F | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Moormann | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Palmer-Houlden | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| A. Paulsen | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jamie Knight-Lebel | D | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. O'Donnell | D | 2 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Kanga | M | 44 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| T. Sparrow | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. McGhee | M | 46 | 5.8 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| D. Levitt | M | 46 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| W. Vogt | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Connelly | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Björgólfsson | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Booth | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win ST Johnstone vs Motherwell?
- Fipster's AI model predicted ST Johnstone to win against Motherwell.
- What score did Fipster predict for ST Johnstone vs Motherwell?
- Fipster predicted a final score of ST Johnstone 2–1 Motherwell.
- What were the win probabilities for ST Johnstone vs Motherwell?
- Fipster's model gave ST Johnstone a 66% chance of winning, Motherwell a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 66% confidence — a high-confidence call.