ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
St Johnstone edge thrilling seven-goal thriller
A seesaw battle sees St Johnstone narrowly outscore Kilmarnock in a seven-goal feast.
St Johnstone and Kilmarnock served up a pulsating 4-3 encounter, with J. Fowler and K. Fotheringham among the key contributors for the home side. The match swung back and forth, featuring goals from both teams and even an own goal apiece, keeping fans on the edge of their seats. Despite the high-scoring drama, Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a home win was on the money, though the actual scoreline was far more entertaining than the modest 2-1 forecast.
Analysis
As the new season kicks off, ST Johnstone and Kilmarnock face off in what promises to be a tight encounter. Both sides are eager to start their campaigns on a positive note, setting the stage for a competitive match.
This fixture marks the first round of the regular season, with both teams yet to register any points. ST Johnstone sit ninth in the league standings, while Kilmarnock hold fifth place, reflecting a closely matched contest ahead.
The probabilities for this match are finely balanced, with a slight edge to ST Johnstone at 34%, closely followed by Kilmarnock at 31%, and draws at 30%. The most common predicted full-time scoreline is 1-1, but the forecast leans towards a narrow 2-1 win for the home side. The expected number of cards is three, suggesting a moderately physical game.
Prediction
Given the marginally higher probability and home advantage, ST Johnstone are tipped to secure a 2-1 victory over Kilmarnock. While the confidence level is moderate at 36%, the home side's slight edge could prove decisive in this closely fought contest.
Outcome probability
Key Takeaways
Expect a competitive match with both teams eager to make a strong start. ST Johnstone's predicted narrow win reflects their slight advantage, but Kilmarnock will surely push hard to spoil the party.
- ST Johnstone are ranked 9th in the league with 0 points from 0 games.
- Kilmarnock are ranked 5th in the league with 0 points from 0 games.
- Aggregated probabilities: home win 34%, draw 30%, away win 31%.
- Modal full-time scoreline is 1-1 with an 18% probability.
- Predicted full-time score is 2-1 in favour of ST Johnstone.
- Expected total number of cards in the match is 3.
- Confidence in the home win prediction is 36%.
- Halftime score prediction is inconclusive due to inconsistent data.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — ST Johnstone
Away — Kilmarnock
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Fowler
Assist: Gullan
John-Jules
Yellow Card
Kiltie
Assist: Lowery
John-Jules
Smith
Yellow Card
Diabate
Assist: Gullan
Hugill
Diabate
Yellow Card
Holt (OG)
Cleșcenco
Tshibola
Holt
Paton
Ring
Schjønning-Larsen (OG)
McAlear
Fotheringham
Assist: Fowler
Brandon
Yellow Card
Fowler
Kiltie
Gullan
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 28 |
| 6 |  Falkirk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 |  ST Johnstone | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 |  ST Mirren | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 |  Kilmarnock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
| 12 |  Hibernian | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 8 |
Match Statistics
ST Johnstone
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1T. StewardG
- 3C. DiabateD
- 5Z. MitchellD
- 8J. HoltM
- 9J. FowlerF
- 10J. GullanM
- 11S. StantonM
- 14M. FouldsD
- 33L. SmithD
- 42R. McAlearM
- 99R. PatonM
Substitutes
- 4M. BoyesD
- 7T. StevenF
- 15J. BairdD
- 18K. FotheringhamF
- 19D. FinlaysonD
- 20R. SinclairG
- 23L. ChalmersM
- 25M. TaitM
Kilmarnock
4-4-1-1Starting XI
- 1M. StryjekG
- 8E. RingD
- 9J. HugillF
- 10T. John-JulesF
- 11G. KiltieM
- 14G. StangerD
- 18T. LoweryM
- 20N. CleșcencoM
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 25E. BrownD
- 36A. TshibolaM
Substitutes
- 2J. BrandonD
- 5M. O'HaraM
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 12C. FerrieG
- 23Roshaun MathurinF
- 27I. OwenF
- 39E. BowieD
- 49B. RiceM
ST Johnstone
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Fowler | F | 84 | 8.3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Jamie Gullan | M | 85 | 8.3 | — | 2 | 3 | — | 5 | 0/1 |
| Cheick Diabate | D | 94 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Jason Holt(C) | M | 61 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Matty Foulds | D | 94 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Zach Mitchell | D | 94 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Ruari Paton | M | 61 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Sam Stanton | M | 94 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Liam Smith | D | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Reece McAlear | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toby Steward | G | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Taylor Steven | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Morgan Boyes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danny Finlayson | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Sinclair | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kai Fotheringham | F | 33 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Jack Baird | D | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Logan Chalmers | M | 33 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Macaulay Tait | M | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Kilmarnock
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Hugill | F | 94 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Greg Kiltie(C) | M | 85 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/4 |
| Tom Lowery | M | 94 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Max Stryjek | G | 94 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| George Stanger | D | 94 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Nicky Cleșcenco | M | 59 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Erik Ring | D | 66 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/5 |
| Tyreece John-Jules | F | 47 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Aaron Tshibola | M | 59 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ethan Brown | D | 94 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michael Schjønning-Larsen | D | 94 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Euan Bowie | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rory McKenzie | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Calum Ferrie | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mark O'Hara | M | 28 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bailey Rice | M | 35 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Roshaun Mathurin | F | 35 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Ieuan Owen | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jamie Brandon | D | 47 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
- Fipster's AI model predicted ST Johnstone to win against Kilmarnock.
- What score did Fipster predict for ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
- Fipster predicted a final score of ST Johnstone 2–1 Kilmarnock.
- What were the win probabilities for ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
- Fipster's model gave ST Johnstone a 36% chance of winning, Kilmarnock a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 36% confidence — a low-confidence call.