ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock

PremiershipMatchweek 1

ST Johnstone

Full Time
4–3
HT: 1–1

Kilmarnock

Ref: J. BeatonMcDiarmid Park, Perth · 10,673 cap
Fipster Pick
Home WinlowHit
Full-time story

St Johnstone edge thrilling seven-goal thriller

A seesaw battle sees St Johnstone narrowly outscore Kilmarnock in a seven-goal feast.

St Johnstone and Kilmarnock served up a pulsating 4-3 encounter, with J. Fowler and K. Fotheringham among the key contributors for the home side. The match swung back and forth, featuring goals from both teams and even an own goal apiece, keeping fans on the edge of their seats. Despite the high-scoring drama, Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a home win was on the money, though the actual scoreline was far more entertaining than the modest 2-1 forecast.

FıpsterSelf-Score Card
Underconfident✓ Hit
Fipster's Pick✓
2–1
Final Result
4–3
HT 1–1
86%Excellent
A
✓Outcome✗Exact Score✓BTTS✓Over/Under 2.5✗Halftime
Fipster's self review2 Aug 2026

Analysis

As the new season kicks off, ST Johnstone and Kilmarnock face off in what promises to be a tight encounter. Both sides are eager to start their campaigns on a positive note, setting the stage for a competitive match.

This fixture marks the first round of the regular season, with both teams yet to register any points. ST Johnstone sit ninth in the league standings, while Kilmarnock hold fifth place, reflecting a closely matched contest ahead.

The probabilities for this match are finely balanced, with a slight edge to ST Johnstone at 34%, closely followed by Kilmarnock at 31%, and draws at 30%. The most common predicted full-time scoreline is 1-1, but the forecast leans towards a narrow 2-1 win for the home side. The expected number of cards is three, suggesting a moderately physical game.

Prediction

Given the marginally higher probability and home advantage, ST Johnstone are tipped to secure a 2-1 victory over Kilmarnock. While the confidence level is moderate at 36%, the home side's slight edge could prove decisive in this closely fought contest.

Outcome probability

ST Johnstone 36%Draw 32%Kilmarnock 32%

Match factors

Statsmedium

Outcome Probabilities

Draw probability is 0.30, close to home win and away win probabilities, favoring a draw.

Statsmedium

Modal Scoreline

Most likely draw scoreline is 1-1 with 18% probability.

Statsmedium

Halftime Consistency

Halftime score is set to null due to inconsistency with modal fulltime score 1-1.

Key Takeaways

Expect a competitive match with both teams eager to make a strong start. ST Johnstone's predicted narrow win reflects their slight advantage, but Kilmarnock will surely push hard to spoil the party.

  • ST Johnstone are ranked 9th in the league with 0 points from 0 games.
  • Kilmarnock are ranked 5th in the league with 0 points from 0 games.
  • Aggregated probabilities: home win 34%, draw 30%, away win 31%.
  • Modal full-time scoreline is 1-1 with an 18% probability.
  • Predicted full-time score is 2-1 in favour of ST Johnstone.
  • Expected total number of cards in the match is 3.
  • Confidence in the home win prediction is 36%.
  • Halftime score prediction is inconclusive due to inconsistent data.
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