ST Johnstone vs Falkirk
Falkirk snatch late point at St Johnstone
E. Alıç's stoppage-time strike rescues a draw for the hosts after Falkirk took the lead.
Falkirk took the lead through E. Ross just after the hour mark, looking set to spoil St Johnstone's day. However, E. Alıç kept the home fans on their toes by equalising deep into stoppage time at 90+6', denying St Johnstone a win. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a home victory, turning what looked like a narrow win into a shared spoils affair.
Outcome probability
As the seventh round of the regular season unfolds, ST Johnstone and Falkirk prepare to lock horns in what promises to be a spirited encounter. Both teams have had their share of ups and downs, but the Saints hold a clear advantage in league standing and recent form.
Match factors
J. Fowler's home scoring form boosts ST Johnstone attack
Fowler has scored 3 goals in his last 3 home games, aligning with ST Johnstone's strong home scoring average of 2 goals per game.
ST Johnstone's superior assist creators
James Gullan leads with 3 assists in 6 games, exceeding league average for midfield assists, enhancing ST Johnstone's chance creation.
Falkirk's Jacob Murrell shows promising scoring form
Murrell has scored 1 goal in 3 appearances with a 0.33 goals/game rate, indicating potential to impact despite limited team success.
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have no confirmed absences, ensuring full availability of key scorers and assisters for this fixture.
The context
ST Johnstone currently sit 7th in the league with 7 points from 6 games, while Falkirk find themselves 11th with just 2 points from 5 matches. This gap in performance sets the stage for a match where the home side will look to consolidate their position and continue their upward momentum.
Key insights
J. Fowler
ST Johnstone
Fowler’s home scoring form is a major boost, with 3 goals in his last 3 home games aligning with the team’s strong home attack.
Premiership 26/274 goals in 6 games, including 3 in last 3 home matches
J. Gullan
ST Johnstone
Gullan’s creativity shines through with 3 assists in 6 games, making him a key playmaker for the Saints.
Premiership 26/273 assists in 6 games
J. Murrell
Falkirk
Murrell shows promise with a decent scoring rate despite limited team success, potentially troubling the home defence.
Premiership 26/271 goal in 3 games
Analysis
The statistical edge lies with ST Johnstone, who boast a points-per-game rate nearly triple that of Falkirk. Their attacking threat is spearheaded by J. Fowler, who has netted 4 goals in 6 games, including a remarkable 3 goals in his last 3 home outings. Midfielder J. Gullan complements this firepower with 3 assists, making the Saints a well-rounded offensive unit. Falkirk's Jacob Murrell offers some hope with his promising scoring form, but the visitors will need more than flashes of brilliance to overcome the home side's consistency. Expect a moderately physical game, with around four cards likely to be shown.
Key facts
- 1.ST Johnstone rank 7th with 7 points from 6 games (W2 D1 L3).
- 2.Falkirk rank 11th with 2 points from 5 games (W0 D2 L3).
- 3.ST Johnstone average 1.17 points per game, Falkirk 0.40.
- 4.J. Fowler has scored 4 goals in 6 games, including 3 in last 3 home matches.
- 5.J. Gullan leads ST Johnstone with 3 assists in 6 games.
- 6.Falkirk's J. Murrell has 1 goal in 3 appearances.
- 7.Predicted total cards for the match is 4, indicating moderate physicality.
Prediction
We anticipate ST Johnstone to take an early lead, reflected in a predicted halftime score of 1-0. Falkirk will respond, but the Saints' superior form and home advantage should see them clinch a 2-1 victory by full time.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — ST Johnstone
Away — Falkirk
The verdict
In summary, ST Johnstone's stronger league position, combined with key players in form and home scoring prowess, make them the favourites to secure all three points. Falkirk will provide resistance, but the Saints are expected to maintain their edge in this competitive fixture.
Prediction generated 15 Sep 2026, 20:37 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Diabate
Yellow Card
Diabate
Red Card
Campbell
Ross
Assist: Eames
Holt
McAlear
Finley Frank Barbrook
Murrell
Ross
Eames
Mitchell
Krauhaus
Alıç
Yellow Card
Alıç
Paton
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 5 |  ST Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 |  ST Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 |  Aberdeen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
Match Statistics
ST Johnstone
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1T. StewardG
- 2E. AlıçD
- 3C. DiabateD
- 5Z. MitchellD
- 7T. StevenM
- 8J. HoltM
- 9J. FowlerF
- 30J. CotterillM
- 32J. CampbellM
- 33L. SmithD
- 42R. McAlearM
Substitutes
- 11S. StantonM
- 14M. FouldsD
- 18K. FotheringhamF
- 19D. FinlaysonD
- 20R. SinclairG
- 22D. SchmidtF
- 25M. TaitM
- 26M. ToddM
- 99R. PatonF
Falkirk
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3L. McCannD
- 5L. HendersonD
- 8B. SpencerM
- 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
- 19S. BainG
- 21D. MeļņiksD
- 22R. StrainD
- 23E. RossM
- 24J. MurrellF
- 28B. KrauhausM
- 42Owen EamesM
Substitutes
- 1N. HogarthG
- 4J. McMillanD
- 7Ben ParkinsonF
- 9R. MacIverF
- 10C. SibbaldM
- 15L. NeilsonD
- 17S. TanserD
- 47A. DohertyF
- 99C. FodreyM
ST Johnstone
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. McAlear | M | 65 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Holt | M | 65 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Paton | F | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Smith | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Stanton | M | 25 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Z. Mitchell | D | 77 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| J. Fowler | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| J. Cotterill | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Campbell | M | 55 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Steward | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Schmidt | F | 13 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Alıç | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Finlayson | D | 35 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Steven | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| C. Diabate | D | 53 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| K. Fotheringham | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Sinclair | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Foulds | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Tait | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Todd | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Falkirk
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Ross | M | 75 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2/2 |
| R. Strain | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/2 |
| S. Bain | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Meļņiks | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Owen Eames | M | 75 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| L. McCann | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Henderson | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| B. Krauhaus | M | 89 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2/4 |
| J. McMillan | D | 1 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Fodrey | M | 15 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| C. Sibbald | M | 23 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. MacIver | F | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Finley Frank Barbrook | M | 67 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| A. Doherty | F | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| B. Spencer | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Murrell | F | 67 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Ben Parkinson | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Tanser | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Hogarth | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Neilson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win ST Johnstone vs Falkirk?
- Fipster's AI model predicted ST Johnstone to win against Falkirk.
- What score did Fipster predict for ST Johnstone vs Falkirk?
- Fipster predicted a final score of ST Johnstone 2–1 Falkirk.
- What were the win probabilities for ST Johnstone vs Falkirk?
- Fipster's model gave ST Johnstone a 85% chance of winning, Falkirk a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.