Motherwell vs ST Mirren
Motherwell nicks it with late penalty
L. Fadinger's spot-kick secures a narrow win for Motherwell against St Mirren.
Motherwell edged out St Mirren 1-0 thanks to a penalty from L. Fadinger in the 82nd minute. The tight scoreline reflects a closely contested Premiership clash that defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a 1-1 draw.
Outcome probability
Motherwell and ST Mirren face off in what promises to be a closely contested regular season match. Both teams have shown mixed form, setting the stage for a balanced encounter.
Match factors
Motherwell's midfield scoring edge
Alexander Lowry's strong away scoring form and high minutes give Motherwell a midfield scoring threat.
ST Mirren's creative midfield influence
Killian Phillips leads ST Mirren in goals and assists, providing creative spark and goal threat.
Motherwell's attacking assists from Maswanhise
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise has 3 assists this season, showing recent creative form for Motherwell.
Defensive solidity from Sparrow and Carr
Thomas Sparrow and Ryan Carr provide strong defensive tackling and interception, key to disrupting opposition.
ST Mirren's assist potential from Phillips and Samu
Phillips and Samu have combined 4 assists in limited games, indicating creative threat if fit.
The context
Motherwell currently sit 10th in the league with 8 points from 10 games, while ST Mirren hold 6th place with 13 points. Their head-to-head history is evenly matched, with Motherwell winning 8 of their 20 meetings, ST Mirren 4, and 8 draws.
Key insights
Alexander Lowry
Motherwell
Lowry's strong away scoring form and high minutes make him a key midfield threat for Motherwell.
Premiership 26/273 goals in 9 appearances, 0.33 goals/game
Killian Phillips
ST Mirren
Phillips leads ST Mirren in goals and assists, providing a creative spark and goal threat.
Premiership 26/273 goals and 2 assists in 6 appearances
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
Motherwell
Maswanhise's 3 assists this season highlight his creative influence for Motherwell.
Premiership 26/273 assists in 10 appearances
Thomas Sparrow
Motherwell
Sparrow's defensive work and assist contributions are vital for Motherwell's stability.
Premiership 26/272 assists in 10 appearances, 2.5 tackles/game
Analysis
The stats suggest a tight game: Motherwell have a slight edge in head-to-head wins, but ST Mirren boast a better points-per-game ratio this season (1.30 vs 0.80). Key players include Motherwell's Alexander Lowry, who has a strong away scoring record with 3 goals in 9 appearances, and ST Mirren's Killian Phillips, their top scorer and assister with 3 goals and 2 assists in 6 games. Both teams have creative midfielders capable of unlocking defences, but defensive stalwarts like Thomas Sparrow and Ryan Carr could keep things tight.
Key facts
- 1.Motherwell have won 8 of 20 matches against ST Mirren, with 8 draws and 4 losses.
- 2.ST Mirren currently rank 6th with 13 points from 10 games; Motherwell are 10th with 8 points.
- 3.ST Mirren have a points-per-game advantage of 1.30 compared to Motherwell's 0.80.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals, with Motherwell scoring 26 and ST Mirren 18 in total.
- 5.Alexander Lowry has scored 3 goals in 9 appearances for Motherwell, showing strong away form.
- 6.Killian Phillips leads ST Mirren with 3 goals and 2 assists in 6 games.
- 7.Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise has contributed 3 assists for Motherwell this season.
- 8.Thomas Sparrow and Ryan Carr provide defensive solidity for their teams.
Prediction
A cautious first half is expected, with a 0-0 halftime scoreline likely. The game should open up in the second half, resulting in a 1-1 draw. Both sides are evenly matched, and the prediction reflects a balanced contest with neither team able to secure all three points.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Motherwell
Away — ST Mirren
The verdict
With form and stats pointing to a close encounter, fans can expect a competitive match with moments of quality from key players. A 1-1 draw seems a fair outcome, leaving both teams to regroup and push for better results in upcoming fixtures.
Prediction generated 28 Oct 2026, 21:36 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Hodge
Yellow Card
Fraser
Yellow Card
Carr
Yellow Card
Sule
Carr
Moormann
Yellow Card
Hodge
Kanga
Thomas
Palmer-Houlden
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
Penalty confirmed
Fadinger
Penalty
Fieldson
Gogić
Yellow Card
Charles-Cook
Yellow Card
Samu
Yellow Card
Phillips
Yellow Card
Said
Emmanuel
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 28 |
| 7 |  ST Johnstone | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 |  ST Mirren | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 9 |  Motherwell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
Match Statistics
Motherwell
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 7T. SparrowD
- 8L. FadingerM
- 13J. KangaM
- 18Tawanda Jethro MaswanhiseM
- 19I. SaidM
- 45M. EmmanuelD
- 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
- 71J. HodgeM
Substitutes
- 4Jamie Knight-LebelD
- 6J. McGheeD
- 12O. PriestmanM
- 14C. HendryF
- 15E. BjörgólfssonF
- 16P. McGinnD
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 21M. ConnellyG
- 63D. LevittM
ST Mirren
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1J. ChapmanG
- 8R. CarrM
- 9Eseosa SuleF
- 13A. GogićD
- 16L. ThomasM
- 22M. FraserD
- 30F. TaylorM
- 47C. RamsayM
- 48P. NsioM
- 53Henry FieldsonD
- 88K. PhillipsM
Substitutes
- 2J. RichardsonD
- 3D. JohnD
- 4L. DonnellyM
- 6Louis JacksonD
- 10SamuM
- 20J. YoungF
- 23C. MochrieM
- 37C. McEvoyM
Motherwell
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Fadinger | M | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| M. Emmanuel | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| J. Girdwood-Reich | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| T. Sparrow | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/5 |
| I. Said | M | 93 | 7.1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5/9 |
| M. Moormann | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Paulsen | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Priestman | M | 25 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| J. Kanga | M | 65 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Hodge | M | 65 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| E. Björgólfsson | F | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| C. Hendry | F | 17 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Palmer-Houlden | F | 73 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| R. Charles-Cook | F | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise | M | 73 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| P. McGinn | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Connelly | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Levitt | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jamie Knight-Lebel | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. McGhee | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
ST Mirren
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Carr | M | 59 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Henry Fieldson | D | 85 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| F. Taylor | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| A. Gogić | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. John | D | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Mochrie | M | 5 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Ramsay | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eseosa Sule | F | 59 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Samu | M | 31 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| L. Thomas | M | 72 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Fraser | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Chapman | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| P. Nsio | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| K. Phillips | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| J. Young | F | 31 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Richardson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Louis Jackson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Donnelly | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. McEvoy | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Motherwell vs ST Mirren?
- Fipster's AI model predicted a draw between Motherwell and ST Mirren.
- What score did Fipster predict for Motherwell vs ST Mirren?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Motherwell 1–1 ST Mirren.
- What were the win probabilities for Motherwell vs ST Mirren?
- Fipster's model gave Motherwell a 33% chance of winning, ST Mirren a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.