Livingston vs Kilmarnock
Match recap
Kilmarnock beat Livingston 4–1 in their Premiership fixture. May scored for Livingston; Hugill, Cleșcenco, Curtis, and Hugill replied for Kilmarnock. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.69 for Livingston versus 2.08 for Kilmarnock. Livingston sit 12th in the Premiership table while Kilmarnock are 11th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Livingston win
Actual
1–4
Analysis
As the relegation group reaches its climax, Livingston host Kilmarnock in a match that promises tension and tactical intrigue. Both sides are desperate for points, but the home advantage and recent form suggest Livingston have the edge.
Livingston sit 12th with 16 points, while Kilmarnock are just above in 11th with 28 points. Historically, their encounters have been closely contested, with Kilmarnock holding a slight upper hand in wins. However, Livingston's recent home scoring streak and key players in form could tip the scales.
Lewis Smith stands out for Livingston, boasting 7 goals this season and excellent recent form, making him a pivotal attacking threat from midfield. Kilmarnock's Joe Hugill, with 8 goals and a blistering run of 5 in 5 games, poses a significant challenge. Yet, Livingston's home momentum and balanced squad depth provide them with a tactical advantage to edge this encounter.
Prediction
We predict a 2-1 victory for Livingston, with the halftime score likely to be 1-1. The match should feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled contest. Confidence in this outcome is moderate, but the home side's form and key player contributions make them favourites.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Livingston's Midfield Scoring Threat
Lewis Smith's strong goal and assist form gives Livingston a key attacking edge from midfield.
Kilmarnock's Striker Form
Joe Hugill's recent scoring spree (5 goals in last 5) boosts Kilmarnock's goal threat significantly.
Livingston's Home Scoring Streak
Livingston has scored in all last 5 home games, indicating strong attacking momentum at home.
Kilmarnock's Recent Away Win Over Livingston
Kilmarnock won the last away fixture 4-1, showing capability to exploit Livingston's defense.
No Key Injuries Reported
Both teams have full squads available, so no injury disruptions expected.
Key Takeaways
In a fixture where every point counts, Livingston's home advantage and midfield firepower should see them through. Kilmarnock will fight hard, but expect the Lions to roar louder and secure a crucial win in this relegation scrap.
- Livingston have won 7 of 19 meetings against Kilmarnock, who have 9 wins and 3 draws.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals, aligning with the predicted 3-goal total.
- Livingston rank 12th with 16 points from 33 games (W1 D13 L19).
- Kilmarnock rank 11th with 28 points from 33 games (W6 D10 L17).
- Lewis Smith is Livingston's top scorer with 7 goals and strong recent form.
- Joe Hugill leads Kilmarnock with 8 goals, including 5 in the last 5 games.
- Livingston have scored in all of their last 5 home games, showing attacking consistency.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Livingston
Away — Kilmarnock
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
May
Assist: McKay
Hugill
Assist: Thompson
Danso
Yellow Card
Cleșcenco
Assist: Kiltie
Thompson
Yellow Card
Schjønning-Larsen
Curtis
Assist: Thompson
Muirhead
Danso
McKay
Hugill
Assist: Deas
Tshibola
Stanger
Smith
Cleșcenco
Lyons
Yellow Card
Thompson
Tait
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | +30 | 70 |
| 10 |  ST Mirren | 33 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -21 | 30 |
| 11 |  Kilmarnock | 33 | 6 | 10 | 17 | -28 | 28 |
| 12 |  Livingston | 33 | 1 | 13 | 19 | -31 | 16 |
Match Statistics
Livingston
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevie May | M | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2/4 |
| Robbie Muirhead | F | 56 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Barrie McKay | M | 56 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| Cammy Kerr | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Lewis Smith | M | 66 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Macaulay Tait | M | 85 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Emmanuel Danso | M | 56 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Cristian Montaño | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Danny Wilson(C) | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jérôme Prior | G | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brooklyn Kabongolo | D | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Babacar Fati | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Shinnie | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Scott Arfield | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Matthias Tamm | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jack Hamilton | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joshua Zimmerman | F | 34 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Aidan Denholm | M | 34 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jon Nouble | F | 34 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Sam Culbert | F | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
Kilmarnock
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Hugill | F | 90 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Max Stryjek | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Tom Lowery | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Dominic Thompson | D | 84 | 7.3 | — | 2 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Nicky Cleșcenco | M | 66 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Findlay Curtis | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/6 |
| Robbie Deas(C) | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Greg Kiltie | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| George Stanger | D | 62 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aaron Tshibola | M | 62 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Michael Schjønning-Larsen | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bruce Anderson | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kieran Wright | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Euan Bowie | D | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rory McKenzie | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Magennis | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jack Thomson | M | 28 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Bradley Lyons | M | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Ethan Brown | D | 28 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Watson | M | 24 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |