Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone
Kilmarnock and St Johnstone share spoils
A lively 2-2 draw sees both sides trade blows in a Premiership thriller.
Kilmarnock looked set for victory after early strikes from C. McCarthy and D. Daniels, but St Johnstone fought back with goals from D. Schmidt just before the break and J. Cotterill after the interval to secure a draw. The match defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a narrow home win, delivering an entertaining stalemate instead.
Outcome probability
Kilmarnock and ST Johnstone face off in a regular season fixture where the home side looks poised to claim all three points. Both teams have had mixed fortunes this season, but Kilmarnock's recent home form and attacking edge could prove decisive.
Match factors
Kiltie's home scoring form boosts Kilmarnock attack
Greg Kiltie has scored 2 goals in his last 2 home games, providing a key attacking edge at home
Fowler leads ST Johnstone with 6 goals this season
Josh Fowler is ST Johnstone's top scorer with 6 goals in 10 games, a major threat to Kilmarnock defense
Brandon's recent assist form supports Kilmarnock's attack
Jamie Brandon has 2 assists in last 5 games, showing strong creative form from defense
Stanger's defensive solidity key to Kilmarnock's backline
George Stanger's high tackle and interception rates make him crucial to stopping ST Johnstone's attack
No confirmed injuries for either team, full squads expected
Both teams have no confirmed absences, allowing strongest lineups and tactical plans
The context
Kilmarnock currently sit 11th in the league with 8 points from 10 games, while ST Johnstone are slightly better placed in 8th with 12 points. Despite ST Johnstone's superior goal difference, Kilmarnock's home performances and attacking contributions give them an advantage in this encounter.
Key insights
Greg Kiltie
Kilmarnock
Greg Kiltie's recent home scoring form gives Kilmarnock a key attacking edge, with 2 goals in his last 2 home matches.
Premiership 26/273 goals in 10 games, 2 goals last 5 games, 2 goals home last 2 games
J. Fowler
ST Johnstone
Josh Fowler leads ST Johnstone's attack with 6 goals in 10 games, making him a major threat to Kilmarnock's defence.
Premiership 26/276 goals in 10 games, 2 goals last 5 games, 1 goal away last 2 games
Jamie Brandon
Kilmarnock
Jamie Brandon's assist form supports Kilmarnock's attack, with 2 assists in the last 5 games and strong set-piece delivery.
Premiership 26/272 assists in 10 games, 2 assists last 5 games, 2 assists home last 2 games
- G
George Stanger
Kilmarnock
George Stanger's defensive solidity, including high tackle and interception rates, is key to stopping ST Johnstone's attack.
Premiership 26/2719 tackles and 14 interceptions in 10 games, 63.5% duel win rate
Analysis
The head-to-head record between these sides is fairly balanced, with Kilmarnock winning 8 of 20 meetings and ST Johnstone 9, alongside 3 draws. Matches typically yield just over two goals on average. Kilmarnock's Greg Kiltie has been in fine form at home, scoring twice in his last two home games, while Jamie Brandon's creativity from defence adds further threat. ST Johnstone's Josh Fowler leads their scoring charts with 6 goals this season, posing a significant challenge for Kilmarnock's defence. Defensive solidity from Kilmarnock's George Stanger will be key to containing ST Johnstone's attack.
Key facts
- 1.Kilmarnock are 11th in the league with 8 points from 10 games (W2 D2 L6).
- 2.ST Johnstone are 8th with 12 points from 10 games (W3 D3 L4).
- 3.Head-to-head record: Kilmarnock 8 wins, ST Johnstone 9 wins, 3 draws in 20 matches.
- 4.Average goals per head-to-head match is 2.1.
- 5.Greg Kiltie has scored 2 goals in his last 2 home games for Kilmarnock.
- 6.Josh Fowler is ST Johnstone's top scorer with 6 goals in 10 games.
- 7.Jamie Brandon has 2 assists in the last 5 games, boosting Kilmarnock's attack.
- 8.George Stanger's defensive work is crucial for Kilmarnock's backline.
Prediction
We expect Kilmarnock to take a 1-0 lead into halftime and hold on to win 2-1 by fulltime. The home side's attacking momentum and key players' form should be enough to overcome ST Johnstone's challenge in a closely contested match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Kilmarnock
Away — ST Johnstone
The verdict
With both teams fielding full squads and no injury concerns, this match promises competitive football. However, Kilmarnock's home advantage and recent attacking form make them the favourites to secure a narrow victory in this regular season fixture.
Prediction generated 28 Oct 2026, 21:37 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Card upgrade confirmed
Steward
Red Card
McCarthy
Assist: Daniels
Steven
Todd
Yellow Card
Holt
Yellow Card
Tshibola
Yellow Card
Schmidt
Assist: Alıç
Daniels
Assist: Hugill
Fowler
Todd
Brandon
Yellow Card
Ring
Daniels
Holt
Cotterill
Mikulić
Deas
Cleșcenco
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 28 |
| 6 |  Falkirk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 |  ST Johnstone | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 |  ST Mirren | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 |  Kilmarnock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
| 12 |  Hibernian | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Kilmarnock
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 2J. BrandonM
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 6R. DeasD
- 8E. RingM
- 9J. HugillF
- 11G. KiltieM
- 14G. StangerD
- 18T. LoweryM
- 29D. DanielsF
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 58N. MantlG
Substitutes
- 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 10T. John-JulesF
- 12C. FerrieG
- 19J. MeierD
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 23Roshaun MathurinM
- 27I. OwenF
ST Johnstone
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1T. StewardG
- 2E. AlıçD
- 3C. DiabateD
- 6B. MikulićD
- 7T. StevenM
- 8J. HoltM
- 9J. FowlerM
- 22D. SchmidtF
- 26M. ToddM
- 30J. CotterillM
- 42R. McAlearM
Substitutes
- 10J. GullanF
- 14M. FouldsD
- 19D. FinlaysonD
- 20R. SinclairG
- 23L. ChalmersM
- 25M. TaitM
- 32J. CampbellM
- 99R. PatonF
Kilmarnock
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Daniels | F | 58 | 8.4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. McCarthy | D | 90 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| T. John-Jules | F | 32 | 7.2 | — | — | 4 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| G. Stanger | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| J. Hugill | F | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | — |
| N. Cleșcenco | F | 32 | 6.7 | — | — | 4 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Kiltie | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2/3 |
| T. Lowery | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Tshibola | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | — |
| R. Deas | D | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Mantl | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Brandon | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| E. Ring | M | 58 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| M. Schjønning-Larsen | D | 19 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Roshaun Mathurin | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Ferrie | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. McKenzie | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Meier | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michael-John Kamson-Kamara | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Owen | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
ST Johnstone
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Schmidt | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| J. Cotterill | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| E. Alıç | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| J. Holt | M | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. McAlear | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Finlayson | D | 23 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Sinclair | G | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Foulds | D | 44 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| B. Mikulić | D | 67 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Diabate | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| J. Campbell | M | 44 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Chalmers | M | 27 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Fowler | M | 46 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Todd | M | 46 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Steven | M | 14 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Steward | G | 13 | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Tait | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Gullan | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Paton | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Kilmarnock to win against ST Johnstone.
- What score did Fipster predict for Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Kilmarnock 2–1 ST Johnstone.
- What were the win probabilities for Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone?
- Fipster's model gave Kilmarnock a 81% chance of winning, ST Johnstone a 9% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 81% confidence — a high-confidence call.