Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian
Killie hold Hearts to a draw
A late Kingsley strike wasn't enough to snatch all three points for Hearts.
Kilmarnock and Heart Of Midlothian played out a 1-1 draw in the Premiership, with an early own goal by J. McCart gifting Killie the lead. Hearts fought back after the break, and S. Kingsley levelled the score in the 86th minute. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Hearts away win, proving the home side's resilience.
Outcome probability
Kilmarnock face a tough challenge against Heart Of Midlothian in this seventh round clash. With Hearts showing strong form and Kilmarnock struggling to find their rhythm, this match promises to be a test of resilience and attacking prowess.
Match factors
Heart Of Midlothian's attacking trio in strong form
Braga, McPake, and Wilson combine high goal and assist rates, posing a significant threat to Kilmarnock's defense
Kilmarnock's low scoring and defensive struggles
Kilmarnock averages 0.8 goals scored and concedes 2.8 per game, indicating vulnerability against strong attacks
Heart Of Midlothian's recent winning streak
Hearts have won 4 of last 5 games, scoring in all, boosting confidence and attacking rhythm
Kilmarnock's Lowery as key creative outlet
Lowery leads Kilmarnock in assists and key passes, crucial for creating chances despite team's struggles
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so tactical and form factors dominate the match outcome
The context
Heart Of Midlothian currently sit third in the league with 12 points from five games, boasting a strong goal difference of 17. In contrast, Kilmarnock are languishing near the bottom with just one point from five matches and a poor defensive record. Historically, the two sides have met 20 times, with Kilmarnock winning nine, Hearts six, and five draws, averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Key insights
Cláudio Braga
Heart Of Midlothian
Braga is a key attacking threat with 2 goals and 2 assists this season, combining strong playmaking and finishing skills.
Premiership 26/272 goals and 2 assists in 5 games
Joshua McPake
Heart Of Midlothian
McPake's excellent away form includes 2 goals and 3 assists, making him a crucial part of Hearts' attacking success.
Premiership 26/272 goals and 3 assists in 4 games
Thomas Lowery
Kilmarnock
Lowery leads Kilmarnock's creative efforts with 2 assists, vital for generating chances despite the team's struggles.
Premiership 26/272 assists in 5 games
Analysis
Hearts have been in fine form recently, winning four of their last five games and scoring in each. Their attacking trio, including Cláudio Braga and Joshua McPake, have been particularly effective, combining goals and assists to keep the pressure on opponents. Kilmarnock, meanwhile, have struggled to score and have conceded heavily, averaging just 0.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded per game. The creative spark from Kilmarnock's Thomas Lowery may offer some hope, but Hearts' dominance in attack and defence is expected to prevail.
Key facts
- 1.Heart Of Midlothian are third in the league with 12 points from 5 games (W4 D0 L1).
- 2.Kilmarnock have 1 point from 5 games (W0 D1 L4) and a poor defensive record.
- 3.Hearts have a goal difference of +17, significantly better than Kilmarnock.
- 4.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Kilmarnock have won 9, Hearts 6, with 5 draws.
- 5.Kilmarnock average 0.8 goals scored and concede 2.8 goals per game this season.
- 6.Heart Of Midlothian have won 4 of their last 5 games, scoring in all.
- 7.Cláudio Braga has scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists this season.
- 8.Joshua McPake has 2 goals and 3 assists, showing strong away form.
Prediction
The prediction strongly favours an away win for Heart Of Midlothian with a 3-1 scoreline. Hearts are expected to take a 1-0 lead by halftime and extend their advantage in the second half. The statistical likelihood of this outcome is high, reflecting Hearts' superior form and goal-scoring ability compared to Kilmarnock's struggles.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Kilmarnock
Away — Heart Of Midlothian
The verdict
All signs point to Heart Of Midlothian continuing their strong run with a convincing victory. Kilmarnock will need to tighten up defensively and find more attacking threat to challenge Hearts' dominance in future matches.
Prediction generated 15 Sep 2026, 20:42 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
McCarthy
Yellow Card
Goal cancelled
McCart (OG)
Findlay
Cláudio Braga
Magnússon
McPake
Kingsley
Yellow Card
Rice
Miller
John-Jules
Lowery
Schjønning-Larsen
Yellow Card
Kingsley
Borchgrevink
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +6 | 13 |
| 3 |  Rangers | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
Match Statistics
Kilmarnock
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2J. BrandonD
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 8E. RingM
- 9J. HugillF
- 10T. John-JulesF
- 11G. KiltieM
- 12C. FerrieG
- 14G. StangerD
- 18T. LoweryM
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 49B. RiceM
Substitutes
- 5M. O'HaraM
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 19J. MeierD
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 27I. OwenF
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 37C. BurkeF
- 39E. BowieD
Heart Of Midlothian
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1B. ReusG
- 2C. BorchgrevinkD
- 3S. KingsleyD
- 5J. McCartD
- 7C. MillerM
- 10Cláudio BragaF
- 15J. McPakeM
- 17S. FindlayD
- 21J. WilsonF
- 22T. MagnússonM
- 78L. MendyM
Substitutes
- 8AgeuM
- 9J. WilliamsF
- 18H. MilneD
- 19S. GuendouzF
- 23J. AltenaD
- 29S. KerjotaF
- 30R. FultonG
- 31Y. DhandaF
- 74R. MatoF
Kilmarnock
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Stanger | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Kiltie | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/3 |
| J. Brandon | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| R. McKenzie | M | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Tshibola | M | 23 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. O'Hara | M | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. John-Jules | F | 76 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| T. Lowery | M | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| B. Rice | M | 67 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Ring | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| J. Hugill | F | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| M. Schjønning-Larsen | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| C. McCarthy | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Ferrie | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Cleșcenco | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Owen | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Burke | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Bowie | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Meier | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Heart Of Midlothian
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Kingsley | D | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Cláudio Braga | F | 59 | 7.2 | — | — | 4 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| S. Kerjota | F | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Guendouz | F | 31 | 6.8 | — | — | 4 | — | — | — |
| Ageu | M | 31 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Mendy | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| C. Borchgrevink | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Findlay | D | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Reus | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Milne | D | 58 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Wilson | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| C. Miller | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| J. Williams | F | 31 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. McPake | M | 59 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| J. McCart | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Magnússon | M | 59 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Y. Dhanda | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Fulton | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Mato | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Altena | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Heart Of Midlothian to win against Kilmarnock.
- What score did Fipster predict for Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Kilmarnock 1–3 Heart Of Midlothian.
- What were the win probabilities for Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian?
- Fipster's model gave Kilmarnock a 5% chance of winning, Heart Of Midlothian a 89% chance, and a 6% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 89% confidence — a high-confidence call.