Hibernian vs Falkirk
Murrell's double sinks Hibernian
Falkirk's J. Murrell shines with a brace to secure a narrow win.
Falkirk edged out Hibernian 2-1 in a Premiership clash thanks to J. Murrell's early double at 13 and 37 minutes. Although O. Elding pulled one back for Hibernian before the break, it wasn't enough to prevent Falkirk from taking all three points. Fipster's low-confidence call for an away win was on the money, even if the exact scoreline was a bit off.
Outcome probability
Hibernian and Falkirk face off in what promises to be a closely contested league match. Both sides have had their struggles this season, sitting just above the relegation zone, making every point crucial at this stage.
Match factors
Falkirk's attacking momentum vs Hibernian's defensive struggles
Falkirk has scored in last 5 games but also conceded in all, exploiting Hibernian's leaky defense
Martin Boyle's scoring form at home
Boyle has 3 goals in 6 games with strong home scoring rate, key for Hibernian's attack
Jacob Murrell's recent scoring streak
Murrell scored 2 goals in last 5 games, showing good form to influence match outcome
Ryan Strain's assist threat from defense
Strain leads Falkirk with 2 assists, providing creative outlet from defensive position
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so tactical and form factors dominate
The context
After seven games, Hibernian sit 10th with 7 points, while Falkirk are just behind in 11th with 6 points. Their head-to-head history is fairly balanced, with Hibernian winning 7 of 17 matches and Falkirk 4, alongside 6 draws. Their meetings tend to be lively affairs, averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Key insights
Martin Boyle
Hibernian
Boyle leads Hibernian's scoring with 3 goals in 6 games, showing strong home form with 2 goals in 4 home matches.
Premiership 26/273 goals in 6 appearances, 0.5 goals/game
Jacob Murrell
Falkirk
Murrell is in good form, scoring 2 goals in his last 5 games, making him a key threat for Falkirk.
Premiership 26/272 goals in last 5 appearances
Ryan Strain
Falkirk
Strain provides creativity from defence with 2 assists this season, a vital outlet for Falkirk's attack.
Premiership 26/272 assists in 7 appearances, 0.29 assists/game
Analysis
Falkirk have shown attacking promise recently, scoring in their last five matches, though their defence has been somewhat porous. Hibernian, meanwhile, have struggled defensively, which Falkirk could exploit. Key players include Martin Boyle for Hibernian, who boasts a strong home scoring record with 3 goals in 6 games, and Falkirk's Jacob Murrell, who is in good form with 2 goals in his last 5 appearances. Falkirk's Ryan Strain also poses a creative threat from defence with 2 assists this season.
Key facts
- 1.Hibernian have won 7 of 17 head-to-head matches against Falkirk.
- 2.Falkirk have won 4 of their 17 meetings with Hibernian, with 6 draws.
- 3.Their head-to-head matches average 2.8 goals per game.
- 4.Hibernian are 10th in the league with 7 points from 7 games.
- 5.Falkirk sit 11th with 6 points from 7 games.
- 6.Martin Boyle leads Hibernian with 3 goals in 6 appearances.
- 7.Jacob Murrell has scored 2 goals in his last 5 games for Falkirk.
- 8.Ryan Strain is Falkirk's top assister with 2 assists this season.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a narrow away win for Falkirk, with a 1-0 scoreline the most likely outcome. While the match is finely balanced, Falkirk's recent attacking momentum and ability to capitalise on Hibernian's defensive vulnerabilities give them the edge.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Hibernian
Away — Falkirk
The verdict
Expect a tight, tactical battle with few clear-cut chances. Falkirk's ability to break the deadlock could be the difference, but Hibernian will be keen to avoid slipping further down the table. A 1-0 Falkirk win looks the most probable result.
Prediction generated 10 Oct 2026, 15:59 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Elding
Yellow Card
Murrell
Assist: Strain
Krauhaus
Yellow Card
Murrell
Assist: Ross
Elding
Assist: Passlack
Tanser
Penalty cancelled
Klidje
Strain
Yellow Card
Abdulai
Krauhaus
Chaiwa
Mayor
Ross
Finley Frank Barbrook
Yellow Card
Finley Frank Barbrook
Eames
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 28 |
| 5 |  Dundee Utd | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 |  Falkirk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 |  ST Johnstone | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Kilmarnock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
| 12 |  Hibernian | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Hibernian
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1R. SallingerG
- 3A. MayorD
- 5M. IvezićD
- 6J. KerrD
- 7O. EldingF
- 8J. MulliganM
- 10M. BoyleM
- 14M. ChaiwaM
- 18T. KlidjeM
- 25F. PasslackD
- 47A. AbdulaiM
Substitutes
- 4G. HanleyD
- 11J. NewellM
- 12Alex WilliamsD
- 15J. IredaleD
- 17J. McGrathM
- 19N. CaddenM
- 22A. ŠutoF
- 35F. OwensG
- 39R. MatondoM
Falkirk
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5L. HendersonD
- 8B. SpencerM
- 15L. NeilsonD
- 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
- 17S. TanserD
- 19S. BainG
- 22R. StrainD
- 23E. RossM
- 24J. MurrellF
- 28B. KrauhausM
- 42Owen EamesM
Substitutes
- 1N. HogarthG
- 3L. McCannD
- 4J. McMillanD
- 7Ben ParkinsonF
- 9R. MacIverF
- 14F. YeatsM
- 21D. MeļņiksM
- 27C. McLeodM
- 99C. FodreyM
Hibernian
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Elding | F | 90 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| F. Passlack | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 3 | 2/3 |
| T. Klidje | M | 60 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| A. Mayor | D | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Sallinger | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ivezić | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Šuto | F | 14 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. McGrath | M | 29 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Matondo | M | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| A. Abdulai | M | 61 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| J. Kerr | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Cadden | M | 14 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Mulligan | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Chaiwa | M | 76 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Boyle | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| F. Owens | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Williams | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Iredale | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Newell | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Hanley | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Falkirk
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Murrell | F | 90 | 8.9 | 2 | — | 5 | 3 | — | — |
| E. Ross | M | 77 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | — |
| B. Spencer | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Bain | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Neilson | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Finley Frank Barbrook | M | 84 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| F. Yeats | M | 6 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| D. Meļņiks | M | 25 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Fodrey | M | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. McMillan | D | 6 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Krauhaus | M | 65 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | -1 | 1/2 |
| Owen Eames | M | 84 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| L. Henderson | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Tanser | D | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Strain | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| L. McCann | D | 44 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| C. McLeod | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. MacIver | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Hogarth | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ben Parkinson | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Hibernian vs Falkirk?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Falkirk to win against Hibernian.
- What score did Fipster predict for Hibernian vs Falkirk?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Hibernian 0–1 Falkirk.
- What were the win probabilities for Hibernian vs Falkirk?
- Fipster's model gave Hibernian a 32% chance of winning, Falkirk a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.