Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone
Match recap
Heart Of Midlothian beat ST Johnstone 2–1 in their Premiership fixture. Wilson scored for Heart Of Midlothian; Paton replied for ST Johnstone. Heart Of Midlothian held 48% possession to 52% for ST Johnstone. Heart Of Midlothian sit 3rd in the Premiership table while ST Johnstone are 7th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-0 Heart Of Midlothian win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
Hearts and St Johnstone face off in the Scottish Premiership's fourth round, with Hearts looking to build on their solid home performances this season.
Match factors
Hearts' attacking midfield dominance
Hearts' midfielders Braga and McPake show strong goal and assist rates, likely to exploit ST Johnstone's defense
Hearts' superior home scoring form
Hearts average 3.25 goals per home game, well above league average, supporting predicted 2-0 win
McPake's recent high impact
McPake has 4 assists and 3 goals in 7 games, showing strong recent form and involvement
ST Johnstone's reliance on Fowler
Fowler is ST Johnstone's main scoring threat with 5 goals, but limited support from others
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so predicted lineups likely at full strength
The context
Hearts currently sit third in the league with 16 points from 8 games, showcasing a potent attack at home. St Johnstone are seventh with 8 points from 7 games, relying heavily on their top scorer but lacking broader goal support.
Key insights
Cláudio Braga
Heart Of Midlothian
Braga's strong home scoring form and creative presence make him a key attacking threat for Hearts.
Premiership 26/273 goals in 8 appearances, 2 assists in 8 appearances
J. McPake
Heart Of Midlothian
McPake's high goal involvement and assist tally highlight his importance in Hearts' attacking midfield.
Premiership 26/273 goals, 4 assists in 7 appearances
J. Fowler
ST Johnstone
Fowler is St Johnstone's main scoring threat, but limited support from others may hinder their attack.
Premiership 26/275 goals in 8 appearances
Analysis
Hearts boast a strong home scoring record, averaging over three goals per game, and have dominated head-to-head encounters with St Johnstone, winning 14 of their last 20 meetings. Key players like Cláudio Braga and J. McPake have been instrumental, combining goal-scoring and creative prowess. St Johnstone's main threat comes from J. Fowler, but the lack of additional firepower may limit their chances.
Key facts
- 1.Hearts have won 14 of 20 head-to-head matches against St Johnstone.
- 2.Hearts are 3rd in the league with 16 points from 8 games.
- 3.St Johnstone are 7th with 8 points from 7 games.
- 4.Hearts average 3.25 goals per home game this season.
- 5.J. Fowler is St Johnstone's top scorer with 5 goals in 8 appearances.
- 6.Cláudio Braga has scored 3 goals in 8 games for Hearts.
- 7.J. McPake has 3 goals and 4 assists in 7 appearances.
- 8.Hearts have a strong home scoring form supporting the predicted 2-0 win.
Prediction
The prediction favours a 2-0 win for Hearts, reflecting their attacking dominance and home advantage. While the confidence in this exact scoreline is cautious due to limited match history, the data strongly supports a home victory with a clean sheet.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Heart Of Midlothian
Away — ST Johnstone
The verdict
Expect Hearts to control the game and secure the three points, with Braga and McPake likely to be key contributors. St Johnstone will need more than Fowler's efforts to challenge effectively.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:37 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Wilson
Assist: McPake
Unknown (OG)
Paton
Assist: Stanton
Wilson
Mendy
Stanton
Gullan
Paton
Kerjota
Smith
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Rangers | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Dundee | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 |  Falkirk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 |  ST Johnstone | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 |  ST Mirren | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
Match Statistics
Heart Of Midlothian
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1B. ReusG
- 2C. BorchgrevinkD
- 6O. McEnteeD
- 10Cláudio BragaM
- 15J. McPakeM
- 17S. FindlayD
- 21J. WilsonF
- 22T. MagnússonM
- 23J. AltenaD
- 29S. KerjotaM
- 78L. MendyM
Substitutes
- 7C. MillerF
- 11P. KaboreF
- 16B. SpittalM
- 19S. GuendouzF
- 24Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
- 30R. FultonG
- 77A. Ba-SyF
ST Johnstone
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1T. StewardG
- 3C. DiabateD
- 5Z. MitchellD
- 8J. HoltM
- 10J. GullanM
- 11S. StantonM
- 33L. SmithD
- 42R. McAlearM
- 99R. PatonF
Substitutes
- 4M. BoyesD
- 6B. MikulićD
- 7T. StevenF
- 14M. FouldsD
- 18K. FotheringhamF
- 20R. SinclairG
- 23L. ChalmersM
- 25M. TaitM
- 26M. ToddM
Heart Of Midlothian
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Wilson | F | 57 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Mendy | M | 57 | 7.5 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| T. Magnússon | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0/1 |
| J. McPake | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| O. McEntee | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Findlay | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Borchgrevink | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| C. Miller | F | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| P. Kabore | F | 33 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| B. Reus | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Altena | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| B. Spittal | M | 33 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| Cláudio Braga | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| S. Kerjota | M | 81 | 6.0 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| Michael-John Kamson-Kamara | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Guendouz | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ba-Sy | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Fulton | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
ST Johnstone
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Steward | G | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Paton | F | 73 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| S. Stanton | M | 72 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. Holt | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| C. Diabate | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Steven | F | 17 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| K. Fotheringham | F | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Gullan | M | 73 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 3/3 |
| R. McAlear | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| M. Tait | M | 18 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Z. Mitchell | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Smith | D | 92 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| R. Sinclair | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Boyes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Foulds | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Mikulić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Todd | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Chalmers | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Heart Of Midlothian to win against ST Johnstone.
- What score did Fipster predict for Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Heart Of Midlothian 2–0 ST Johnstone.
- What were the win probabilities for Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Johnstone?
- Fipster's model gave Heart Of Midlothian a 35% chance of winning, ST Johnstone a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.