Dundee vs Kilmarnock
Dundee hold firm despite Kilmarnock penalty
A brace from A. Hay seals a 3-1 win for Dundee at home.
Dundee secured a solid 3-1 victory over Kilmarnock in the Premiership, with J. Bevan opening the scoring before A. Hay added two late goals including one deep into stoppage time. Kilmarnock's J. Hugill converted a penalty to offer a glimmer of hope, but Dundee's dominance was clear. Fipster's high-confidence prediction for a Dundee win was spot on, though the exact scoreline differed slightly.
Outcome probability
Dundee and Kilmarnock face off in the 11th round of the regular season, with Dundee currently sitting comfortably higher in the league table. This match promises to showcase Dundee's attacking prowess against a Kilmarnock side struggling to find form.
Match factors
Dundee's defenders pose unusual scoring threat
Bradley Fink and Owen Bevan have combined for 6 goals this season, well above league average for defenders, adding unexpected attacking options.
Kilmarnock's creative midfield led by Thomas Lowery
Lowery's 2 assists and high passing accuracy (87%) make him a key playmaker despite team's struggles.
Bradley Fink's recent scoring surge
Fink scored 4 goals in last 5 games, showing strong form and increasing Dundee's scoring potential.
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so predicted lineups likely to feature top scorers and assisters.
Dundee's strong home scoring streak
Dundee has scored in all last 5 home games, averaging 1.6 goals per home game, supporting predicted 3-0 win.
The context
Dundee hold 4th place with 14 points from 9 games, while Kilmarnock languish in 11th with 8 points. The goal difference tells a similar story: Dundee boast a +3, reflecting a balanced attack and defence, whereas Kilmarnock's -10 highlights their difficulties at both ends of the pitch. Historically, their head-to-head record is fairly competitive, but recent form and league standing favour Dundee.
Key insights
Bradley Fink
Dundee
Exceptional goal-scoring defender with 4 goals in last 5 games, adding unexpected attacking options.
Premiership 26/274 goals in last 5 games, 7 appearances, 0.8 goals/game last 5
Thomas Lowery
Kilmarnock
Creative midfielder with 2 assists and high passing accuracy (87%), key to Kilmarnock's attacking play.
Premiership 26/272 assists in 9 games, 87% passing accuracy, 51 average passes per game
Joseph Westley
Dundee
Consistent starter and key attacking focal point with 3 goals this season, strong home scoring rate.
Premiership 26/273 goals in 7 games, 0.5 goals/game at home last 5
Analysis
Dundee's defensive line is unusually potent offensively, with Bradley Fink netting 4 goals in his last 5 games, making him a key threat on set pieces. Joseph Westley also contributes consistently upfront. Kilmarnock's main creative outlet is Thomas Lowery, whose 2 assists and high passing accuracy keep their hopes alive. However, Dundee's strong home scoring streak and solid defensive record suggest they will control the match, likely leading to a clean sheet and multiple goals.
Key facts
- 1.Dundee are 4th in the league with 14 points from 9 games (W4 D2 L3).
- 2.Kilmarnock sit 11th with 8 points from 9 games (W2 D2 L5).
- 3.Dundee have a +3 goal difference; Kilmarnock have -10.
- 4.Bradley Fink has scored 4 goals in his last 5 games for Dundee.
- 5.In 20 meetings, Dundee have 5 wins, Kilmarnock 7, and 8 draws.
- 6.Dundee have scored in all of their last 5 home games, averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Prediction
Expect Dundee to take an early lead and maintain control, heading into halftime 1-0. Their momentum and home advantage should see them extend the lead to a 3-0 victory by full time. The match is also predicted to be moderately physical, with around four cards expected.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Dundee
Away — Kilmarnock
The verdict
All signs point to a comfortable win for Dundee, who have the form, firepower, and defensive solidity to keep Kilmarnock at bay. Fans can look forward to a confident performance and a clear-cut result in this regular season clash.
Prediction generated 24 Oct 2026, 15:51 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bevan
Assist: Hamilton
McCarthy
Yellow Card
Bevan
Fink
Wright
Deas
Hugill
Penalty
Brandon
Kiltie
Jones
Goal cancelled
Hay
Assist: Forrest
Stanger
Yellow Card
McCarthy
Kamson-Kamara
Yellow Card
Hay
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 28 |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Dundee | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 17 |
| 5 |  Dundee Utd | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 |  Kilmarnock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
| 12 |  Hibernian | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Dundee
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1O. GoodmanG
- 4R. AstleyD
- 7D. WrightD
- 11A. HayF
- 12I. SamuelsD
- 14A. ForrestM
- 21B. FinkF
- 26J. WrightD
- 27J. BevanM
- 28C. JonesM
- 48E. HamiltonM
Substitutes
- 2B. HallidayD
- 3I. OdutayoD
- 6M. AkinmboniD
- 17Ž. BeširM
- 18C. ReillyF
- 19J. WestleyF
- 30H. SharpG
- 77Alfie HarrisonM
Kilmarnock
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2J. BrandonD
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 6R. DeasD
- 9J. HugillF
- 10T. John-JulesF
- 11G. KiltieF
- 14G. StangerD
- 18T. LoweryM
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenM
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 58N. MantlG
Substitutes
- 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 8E. RingM
- 12C. FerrieG
- 19J. MeierD
- 23Roshaun MathurinM
- 27I. OwenF
- 29D. DanielsF
- 32R. EllisD
Dundee
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Hay | F | 90 | 9.1 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2/2 |
| J. Bevan | M | 60 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 5/10 |
| E. Hamilton | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | — |
| A. Forrest | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| R. Astley | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Wright | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| C. Jones | M | 78 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| O. Goodman | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Samuels | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Akinmboni | D | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ž. Bešir | M | 12 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Fink | F | 65 | 6.4 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Wright | D | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Westley | F | 25 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Reilly | F | 30 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| I. Odutayo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Halliday | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alfie Harrison | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Sharp | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Kilmarnock
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. John-Jules | F | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Kiltie | F | 76 | 6.6 | — | — | 4 | — | 5 | 1/4 |
| T. Lowery | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| A. Tshibola | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Meier | D | 14 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Hugill | F | 90 | 6.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | — | 1/1 |
| D. Daniels | F | 1 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Stanger | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| I. Owen | F | 14 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Deas | D | 70 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Brandon | D | 76 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| N. Mantl | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michael-John Kamson-Kamara | D | 20 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Schjønning-Larsen | M | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| C. McCarthy | D | 89 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| C. Ferrie | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Ring | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. McKenzie | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ellis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roshaun Mathurin | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Dundee vs Kilmarnock?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Dundee to win against Kilmarnock.
- What score did Fipster predict for Dundee vs Kilmarnock?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Dundee 3–0 Kilmarnock.
- What were the win probabilities for Dundee vs Kilmarnock?
- Fipster's model gave Dundee a 95% chance of winning, Kilmarnock a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.