Aberdeen vs ST Mirren
Aberdeen's early blitz secures solid win
B. Lyons' swift opener set the tone for a confident home victory.
Aberdeen took control from the off with B. Lyons firing them ahead in the second minute. Despite Eseosa Sule pulling one back for ST Mirren just before half-time, K. Nisbet and A. Mouloua ensured a comfortable 3-1 win for the home side after the break. Fipster tipped an Aberdeen win with medium confidence, and while the exact scoreline was off, the prediction landed on the right side of the result.
Outcome probability
Aberdeen and ST Mirren face off in the ninth round of the regular season, with both sides eager to climb the league standings. Aberdeen, sitting eighth, look to leverage their home advantage against sixth-placed ST Mirren in what promises to be a closely contested match.
Match factors
ST Mirren's key scorers lead attacking threat
Kevin Nisbet and Killian Phillips have scored 3 goals each this season, driving Mirren's offense
Samu stands out as primary assist provider
Samu leads ST Mirren with 2 assists in 4 games, key creative midfielder
Aberdeen's lack of top scorers limits goal threat
Aberdeen has no listed top scorers, reducing their attacking edge in this match
ST Mirren's defensive stalwarts could contain Aberdeen
Fieldson and Gogić provide strong defensive stability with high passing and tackling
ST Mirren's recent form shows attacking potential despite losses
Mirren scored in 2 of last 5 matches and have key players in form like Nisbet and Phillips
The context
This fixture sees Aberdeen and ST Mirren battling for valuable points as the season progresses. ST Mirren currently hold a slight edge in the league table with 10 points from eight games, compared to Aberdeen's eight points from seven games. Historically, ST Mirren have dominated head-to-head encounters, but Aberdeen's better goal difference this season adds an intriguing twist.
Key insights
- K
Kevin Nisbet
ST Mirren
Nisbet is ST Mirren's top scorer with 3 goals this season, making him a key attacking threat.
Premiership 26/273 goals in current season
- K
Killian Phillips
ST Mirren
Phillips leads the midfield scoring for ST Mirren with 3 goals, adding important firepower.
Premiership 26/273 goals in current season
Samu
ST Mirren
Samu stands out as the primary assist provider with 2 assists in 4 games, crucial for creating chances.
Premiership 26/272 assists in 4 games
Alexander Gogić
ST Mirren
Gogić offers defensive stability and contributes with 1 assist, vital for Mirren's backline.
Premiership 26/271 assist in 7 games
Analysis
ST Mirren boast key attacking threats in Kevin Nisbet and Killian Phillips, each netting three goals this season, supported creatively by Samu, who leads with two assists in four games. However, Aberdeen's defensive resilience and superior goal difference (+5) suggest they can keep Mirren's forwards at bay. Defensive stalwarts like Alexander Gogić and Henry Fieldson provide stability for Mirren, but Aberdeen's home advantage and tactical discipline could prove decisive in a tight encounter.
Key facts
- 1.ST Mirren lead head-to-head with 11 wins to Aberdeen's 5 in 20 matches.
- 2.Aberdeen rank 8th with 8 points from 7 games (W2 D2 L3).
- 3.ST Mirren rank 6th with 10 points from 8 games (W3 D1 L4).
- 4.Aberdeen have a better goal difference (+5) than ST Mirren this season.
- 5.Kevin Nisbet and Killian Phillips are ST Mirren's top scorers with 3 goals each.
- 6.Samu leads ST Mirren with 2 assists in 4 games.
- 7.Alexander Gogić contributes defensively and with 1 assist this season.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a narrow 1-0 victory for Aberdeen, with the home side likely to take the lead by halftime and hold on to their advantage. The match is expected to be competitive, with a moderate number of cards, around four, reflecting the intensity of the contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Aberdeen
No standout playmakers flagged for Aberdeen
Away — ST Mirren
The verdict
Aberdeen's slight edge in goal difference and home advantage should see them through in this closely fought match. ST Mirren's attacking talents will test the home defence, but ultimately Aberdeen are predicted to secure all three points with a slender 1-0 win.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 14:57 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Lyons
Assist: Ronan
Carr
Yellow Card
Sule
Assist: Phillips
Lyons
Ronan
Nsio
Yellow Card
Nisbet
Nisbet
Missed Penalty
Penalty confirmed
Thomas
Nsio
Olusanya
Mouloua
Assist: Aremu
Sule
Smith
Armstrong
Yellow Card
Nisbet
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 28 |
| 7 |  ST Johnstone | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 |  ST Mirren | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 14 |
| 9 |  Motherwell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 |  Kilmarnock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
Match Statistics
Aberdeen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5M. KnoesterD
- 8B. LyonsM
- 11Lewis SmithM
- 15K. NisbetF
- 20T. OlusanyaM
- 23L. MayoD
- 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
- 25C. RonanM
- 27M. MüllerG
- 28C. CaddenD
- 32A. AremuM
Substitutes
- 7Tony YoganeF
- 9A. MoulouaF
- 17S. ArmstrongM
- 21G. MolloyD
- 22J. MilneD
- 26D. HappeD
- 30D. KleinG
- 40F. MarshallM
- 77E. GyamfiD
ST Mirren
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1J. ChapmanG
- 3D. JohnD
- 8R. CarrM
- 9Eseosa SuleF
- 13A. GogićD
- 16L. ThomasM
- 19Ismeal KabiaM
- 22M. FraserD
- 47C. RamsayD
- 48P. NsioM
- 88K. PhillipsF
Substitutes
- 4L. DonnellyM
- 6Louis JacksonD
- 10SamuM
- 20J. YoungF
- 23C. MochrieM
- 30F. TaylorM
- 37C. McEvoyM
- 53Henry FieldsonD
Aberdeen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Müller | G | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Mouloua | F | 19 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| B. Lyons | M | 46 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Aremu | M | 90 | 7.4 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Nisbet | F | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 7 | 5 | — | — |
| N. Guinness-Walker | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| C. Ronan | M | 46 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Lewis Smith | M | 76 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| L. Mayo | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Tony Yogane | F | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Armstrong | M | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| M. Knoester | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Olusanya | M | 71 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| C. Cadden | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Gyamfi | D | 14 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| G. Molloy | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Klein | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Milne | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Marshall | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Happe | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
ST Mirren
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eseosa Sule | F | 74 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | — | 0/3 |
| K. Phillips | F | 90 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| J. Chapman | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Thomas | M | 59 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/2 |
| M. Fraser | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| F. Taylor | M | 23 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| J. Young | F | 16 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| D. John | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| A. Gogić | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Ramsay | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| R. Carr | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Samu | M | 31 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ismeal Kabia | M | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/6 |
| P. Nsio | M | 67 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Henry Fieldson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Donnelly | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Louis Jackson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Mochrie | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. McEvoy | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Aberdeen to win against ST Mirren.
- What score did Fipster predict for Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Aberdeen 1–0 ST Mirren.
- What were the win probabilities for Aberdeen vs ST Mirren?
- Fipster's model gave Aberdeen a 60% chance of winning, ST Mirren a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 60% confidence — a medium-confidence call.