UEFA Champions League · 2026-08-05

Fenerbahçe keeps the model ticking while Aarhus throws a spanner in the works

Two fixtures, two very different outcomes for the Fipster prediction model in the UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round. One nailed the winner but missed some finer details; the other got it all wrong despite a decent guess on goals.

Day gradeB+Report card
0Star
1Tick
1Miss
Markets called right3/9

The day kicked off with Aarhus surprising Sabah FA by winning 2-1, a result that left our model scratching its head. It predicted a 1-2 away win, so outcome and exact score were off, but at least it correctly anticipated both teams would find the net and that the match would have more than two goals. Halftime prediction? Not so much.

Fenerbahçe’s 2-0 victory over Sturm Graz was a steadier affair for the model, which correctly called the home win but missed on exact score and other finer points like both teams scoring or total goals. Confidence was appropriate throughout, so we’ll take that one as a solid tick in the box.

Overall, no star performances today — just one tick and one miss. The model showed it can spot winners but still struggles with precise scores and halftime calls. A mixed bag then, but hey, predicting football isn’t exactly rocket science (or maybe it is). Day grade: B+.

Model record 0 STAR 1 TICK 1 MISSDay gradeB+

Fixtures

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More from this round: UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round