MLS action serves up a mixed bag for Fipster, with a star performance and some notable misses
Nine fixtures tested the model’s mettle today, delivering one STAR call, three TICKs, and five MISSes. While the exact score was nailed once, outcome predictions were a bit more hit-and-miss. Confidence levels swung from under to over, keeping things interesting.
Today’s Major League Soccer fixtures gave our beloved Fipster model plenty to chew on. The highlight? St. Louis City versus Houston Dynamo, where the model not only got the outcome right but also the exact scoreline of 2-1. That’s a STAR performance if ever there was one — underconfident but spot on with all key metrics except halftime.
Nashville SC’s 3-2 win over Columbus Crew earned a solid TICK. Outcome, BTTS, over/under, and halftime predictions all landed correctly — just missed out on the exact score. Similarly, San Diego’s 3-0 victory against Colorado Rapids and Atlanta United FC’s narrow 2-1 win over Sporting Kansas City both scored TICKs for correct outcomes and other key calls, though exact scores eluded the model.
On the flip side, Austin versus Philadelphia Union was a tough nut to crack. The model confidently predicted a high-scoring 4-3 win for Austin but ended up missing the outcome entirely as the match finished 1-1. Overconfidence was also evident in Vancouver Whitecaps’ surprising 5-0 thrashing of FC Dallas — predicted to lose but instead delivered a clean sheet blowout.
Los Angeles FC and Portland Timbers drew 1-1 despite an optimistic 3-1 prediction for LAFC; another miss where BTTS was correct but outcome wasn’t. San Jose Earthquakes’ heavy 1-5 defeat by Minnesota United FC also defied expectations with a missed outcome call despite accurate BTTS and over/under predictions.
New England Revolution versus New York City FC rounded off the day with another stalemate at 1-1, yet again proving tricky for Fipster who predicted a home win. Confidence ratings varied widely across matches — sometimes appropriately cautious, other times perhaps too eager.
Overall, it was a day of highs and lows for our trusty model: one shining STAR fixture, three respectable TICKs showing solid calls on outcomes and BTTS, balanced by five MISSes where confidence may have outpaced reality. Plenty to learn from here — we’ll take that one with good humour and look forward to sharpening those instincts.
Model record: 1 STAR · 3 TICK · 5 MISS. Day grade: B
