Wrexham vs Burnley
Burnley and Wrexham share Championship spoils
Amdouni and Ekomié trade blows to settle for a draw.
Burnley took the lead through Z. Amdouni's first-half strike, but Wrexham responded after the break with J. Ekomié's equaliser to earn a 1-1 draw. The match ended evenly poised, defying Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow home win for Wrexham.
Outcome probability
Wrexham and Burnley face off in what promises to be a tightly contested match. Both teams have had their struggles this season, but Wrexham's slightly better form and goal difference give them a slight edge.
Match factors
Wrexham missing key midfielders
Wrexham confirmed out 4 midfielders including G. Thomason, weakening midfield depth and creativity
Wrexham's defensive and passing strength
Wrexham defenders like Doyle and Hyam exceed league averages in passing and defensive duels, aiding ball retention and defense
Burnley consistently scoring despite poor form
Burnley have scored in all last 5 matches but conceded heavily, indicating attacking threat but defensive vulnerability
Wrexham's midfield passing dominance
L. O'Brien's 90% passing accuracy and defensive work rate gives Wrexham midfield control over Burnley
The context
Wrexham currently sit 15th in the league with 5 points from 4 games, while Burnley languish near the bottom at 24th with just 2 points from 5 games. The home side's goal difference of +8 starkly contrasts with Burnley's -6, highlighting defensive and offensive disparities so far this season.
Key insights
- C
Callum Doyle
Wrexham
Doyle's high passing volume and defensive duels win rate help Wrexham maintain control and stability at the back.
Championship 26/27179 total passes in 3 games, rated 8.0 with goal and key involvement
- L
L. O'Brien
Wrexham
O'Brien's 90% passing accuracy and defensive contributions give Wrexham midfield dominance.
Championship 26/2790% passing accuracy, 5 tackles and 6 interceptions in 3 games
- D
Dominic Hyam
Wrexham
Hyam's leadership and defensive reliability are crucial against Burnley's attack.
Championship 26/2788% passing accuracy, above average tackling and interceptions
- A
A. Ramsey
Burnley
Ramsey's recent goal and active involvement in tackles and passes make him a key player for Burnley.
Championship 26/271 goal in last home fixture, rating 7.75
Analysis
Wrexham's defensive solidity is bolstered by players like Callum Doyle and Dominic Hyam, who excel in passing accuracy and defensive duels, helping the team maintain possession and thwart attacks. Midfielder L. O'Brien's impressive 90% passing accuracy and defensive contributions provide control in midfield. Burnley, despite their poor league position, have managed to score in all their last five matches, showing attacking threat but their leaky defence remains a concern. Wrexham's midfield and defensive strengths could be decisive in this encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Wrexham are 15th with 5 points from 4 games (W1 D2 L1).
- 2.Burnley are 24th with 2 points from 5 games (W0 D2 L3).
- 3.Wrexham have a goal difference of +8 this season.
- 4.Burnley have a goal difference of -6 this season.
- 5.Wrexham average 1.25 points per game compared to Burnley's 0.40.
- 6.Callum Doyle has a high passing volume with 179 passes in 3 games.
- 7.L. O'Brien boasts 90% passing accuracy and strong defensive stats.
- 8.Burnley have scored in all of their last 5 matches despite poor form.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Wrexham with a 2-1 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 1-0, reflecting Wrexham's ability to take an early lead and hold it. While the confidence in this call is low due to limited match history and close probabilities, the statistical edge lies with Wrexham's better form and goal difference.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Wrexham
Away — Burnley
The verdict
Expect a competitive match with Wrexham narrowly coming out on top. Burnley will pose a threat going forward, but Wrexham's defensive organisation and midfield control should see them through to a 2-1 victory.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kaboré
Yellow Card
Amdouni
Assist: Ramazani
Cleworth
Windass
O'Brien
Ekomié
Assist: Kaboré
Moore
Ramsey
Yellow Card
Igor
Ramsey
Alleyne
Hyam
Yellow Card
Ekomié
Pires
Yellow Card
Hatate
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Wrexham
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 2C. DoyleD
- 3J. EkomiéM
- 4M. CleworthD
- 5D. HyamD
- 8B. WhitemanM
- 10J. WindassM
- 12I. KaboréM
- 19K. MooreF
- 22A. PattersonG
- 27L. O'BrienM
- 37M. JamesM
Substitutes
- 6J. WorrallD
- 17C. O'HareM
- 20O. RathboneM
- 21D. WardG
- 26Z. VynerD
- 28S. SmithF
- 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayD
- 33N. BroadheadF
- 47R. LongmanM
Burnley
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. WeißG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 3Max AlleyneM
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 11Z. AmdouniF
- 14C. RobertsD
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 21A. RamseyM
- 22O. SonneD
- 29J. LaurentM
- 44IgorD
Substitutes
- 5R. HatateM
- 15A. AhmedhodžićD
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 18H. EkdalD
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 27A. BrojaF
- 30L. CastellF
- 37G. CoudertG
- 47E. ClarkM
Wrexham
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Cleworth | D | 30 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| J. Ekomié | M | 85 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| A. Patterson | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. O'Hare | M | 44 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| B. Whiteman | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. Hyam | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| I. Kaboré | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| M. James | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| S. Smith | F | 29 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Doyle | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| O. Rathbone | M | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| K. Moore | F | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Longman | M | 5 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Windass | M | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| L. O'Brien | M | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Vyner | D | 60 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Worrall | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ward | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Broadhead | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Edward Peter Imray | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Amdouni | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3/7 |
| L. Ramazani | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| M. Weiß | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| K. Walker | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Igor | D | 68 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| U. Raghouber | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/4 |
| Max Alleyne | M | 78 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| O. Sonne | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| H. Ekdal | D | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lucas Pires | D | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Laurent | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| C. Roberts | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Ramsey | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| R. Hatate | M | 12 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ahmedhodžić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Clark | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Castell | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Hountondji | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Broja | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Coudert | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Wrexham vs Burnley?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Wrexham to win against Burnley.
- What score did Fipster predict for Wrexham vs Burnley?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Wrexham 2–1 Burnley.
- What were the win probabilities for Wrexham vs Burnley?
- Fipster's model gave Wrexham a 35% chance of winning, Burnley a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.