West Ham vs Leeds
Match recap
West Ham beat Leeds 3–0 in their Premier League fixture. Castellanos, Bowen, and Wilson scored for West Ham. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.62 for West Ham versus 1.57 for Leeds. West Ham sit 18th in the Premier League table while Leeds are 14th.
Analysis
As the Premier League season draws to a close, West Ham host Leeds in a match that promises a tight contest. Both sides have had their ups and downs, but Leeds' recent attacking form could just tip the scales.
West Ham, known as The Hammers, sit precariously in 18th place with 36 points, while Leeds, the visitors, are comfortably placed 14th with 47 points. Historically, West Ham have the upper hand in head-to-heads, winning 5 of 11 meetings, but Leeds have shown resilience and a better goal difference this season.
Leeds' attack leans heavily on D. Calvert-Lewin, who boasts 14 goals this season and an impressive 5 in his last 5 games, making him a constant threat. West Ham's J. Bowen, with 10 assists and 8 goals, remains a creative force but has struggled to find the net recently. West Ham's defence has been leaky, conceding in their last four games, which Leeds will look to exploit. The absence of Leeds' top scorer N. Okafor slightly dampens their firepower but Calvert-Lewin's form compensates well.
Prediction
Expect a cautious first half with no goals, as both teams feel each other out. However, Leeds' attacking momentum and West Ham's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a 2-1 away win for Leeds. The match is likely to see around four cards, reflecting the competitive nature of this season finale.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Leeds' Reliance on Calvert-Lewin
Leeds' attack heavily depends on Calvert-Lewin's scoring form; his fitness and form critical.
Bowen's Dual Threat
Bowen leads West Ham in assists and contributes goals, making him a key offensive threat.
Okafor's Absence Weakens Leeds Attack
Okafor missing reduces Leeds' attacking depth and goal threat, impacting their scoring potential.
West Ham's Defensive Vulnerability
West Ham concedes frequently, with a 4-game conceding streak, increasing Leeds' scoring chances.
Fernandes' Passing and Defensive Role
Fernandes' high passing accuracy and tackling provide West Ham midfield control and defensive stability.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Leeds' clinical edge and West Ham's defensive frailties set the stage for an away win. While the Hammers will fight hard on home turf, Leeds' form and goal-scoring prowess should secure them all three points to finish the season on a high note.
- West Ham have won 5 of 11 meetings against Leeds, who have won 2, with 4 draws.
- The average goals per match between these teams is 3.3, indicating open games.
- West Ham are 18th in the league with 36 points from 37 games.
- Leeds sit 14th with 47 points and a significantly better goal difference.
- D. Calvert-Lewin is Leeds' top scorer with 14 goals, including 5 in the last 5 games.
- J. Bowen leads West Ham with 10 assists and 8 goals but has not scored in his last 10 games.
- West Ham have conceded in their last four matches, highlighting defensive issues.
- Total cards expected in the match are around four, reflecting a competitive fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — West Ham
Away — Leeds
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bijol
Yellow Card
Aaronson
Yellow Card
Pablo
Castellanos
Assist: Bowen
Calvert-Lewin
Bijol
Bogle
Tanaka
Bowen
Assist: Mateus Fernandes
Ampadu
Yellow Card
Castellanos
Aaronson
Wilson
Assist: Summerville
Match Statistics
West Ham
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. HermansenG
- 2K. Walker-PetersD
- 4A. DisasiD
- 7C. SummervilleM
- 11V. CastellanosF
- 12E. DioufD
- 15K. MavropanosD
- 18Mateus FernandesM
- 19PabloM
- 20J. BowenM
- 28T. SoučekM
Substitutes
- 3M. KilmanD
- 9C. WilsonF
- 21K. LamadridM
- 23A. AreolaG
- 27S. MagassaM
- 29A. Wan-BissakaD
- 30O. ScarlesD
- 32F. PottsM
- 55M. KantéM
Leeds
3-5-2Starting XI
- 2J. BogleM
- 4E. AmpaduM
- 5P. StruijkD
- 6J. RodonD
- 9D. Calvert-LewinF
- 11B. AaronsonM
- 14L. NmechaF
- 15J. BijolD
- 22A. TanakaM
- 24J. JustinM
- 26K. DarlowG
Substitutes
- 1Lucas PerriG
- 7D. JamesM
- 10J. PiroeF
- 23S. BornauwD
- 25S. ByramD
- 29W. GnontoF
- 40F. BuonanotteM
- 47R. Chadwick-ChaplinM
- 51A. CresswellM
West Ham
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crysencio Summerville | M | 95 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 3/6 |
| Valentín Castellanos | F | 88 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | — |
| Mateus Fernandes | M | 95 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| Jarrod Bowen(C) | M | 95 | 7.6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/4 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos | D | 95 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf | D | 95 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Tomáš Souček | M | 95 | 7.3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| Mads Hermansen | G | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Walker-Peters | D | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Felipe | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| Axel Disasi | D | 95 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Soungoutou Magassa | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alphonse Aréola | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohamadou Kanté | M | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Kilman | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keiber Lamadrid | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oliver Scarles | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Freddie Potts | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Callum Wilson | F | 50 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
Leeds
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Darlow | G | 95 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukas Nmecha | F | 95 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| Jayden Bogle | M | 78 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| James Justin | M | 95 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Jaka Bijol | D | 70 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ethan Ampadu(C) | M | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Brenden Aaronson | M | 91 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/4 |
| Ao Tanaka | M | 78 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joe Rodon | D | 95 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Pascal Struijk | D | 95 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | F | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Alfie Cresswell | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw | D | 4 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Perri | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rhys Chadwick-Chaplin | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Byram | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Facundo Buonanotte | M | 17 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Joël Piroe | F | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Daniel James | M | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Wilfried Gnonto | F | 26 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |