West Brom vs Birmingham
Priske's penalty seals Birmingham shock
A solitary spot-kick at 41 minutes handed Birmingham a narrow victory at West Brom.
Birmingham edged out West Brom 1-0 thanks to A. Priske's penalty just before half-time. Despite Fipster's medium-confidence prediction favouring a West Brom win, the visitors pulled off a tidy upset with a slender margin. The match was decided by that single, well-taken penalty, leaving West Brom to rue missed chances.
Outcome probability
West Brom and Birmingham face off in what promises to be a closely contested regular season match. Both teams have shown glimpses of quality, but West Brom's home advantage and defensive strength could prove decisive.
Match factors
West Brom's Defensive Solidity
West Brom's defenders like Callum Styles exceed league averages in tackles and interceptions, aiding their predicted clean sheet
Birmingham's Scoring Streak
Birmingham have scored in their last 5 matches, led by Carlos Vicente's 2 goals in last 5 games
West Brom Missing Key Forward
West Brom's top attacker M. Johnston is out with broken leg, reducing their scoring options
Birmingham's Creative Midfielders
Liam Millar and Patrick Roberts provide creative threat with multiple assists, key for breaking down West Brom defense
West Brom's Home Scoring Rate
West Brom average 1.5 goals per home game, higher than Birmingham's 1.3 away, supporting home win prediction
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's ninth round, with West Brom holding a points-per-game advantage over Birmingham this season. Historically, West Brom have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, having won more encounters than Birmingham.
Key insights
- C
Callum Styles
West Brom
Callum Styles' defensive work rate is exceptional, with 2.7 tackles per game, well above the league average, contributing to West Brom's predicted clean sheet.
Championship 26/272.7 tackles per game vs league avg 1.2
Carlos Vicente
Birmingham
Carlos Vicente has been Birmingham's key scorer recently, netting 2 goals in 7 appearances and maintaining strong away form.
Championship 26/272 goals in 7 appearances, 73 avg mins/game
Liam Millar
Birmingham
Liam Millar's creativity shines through with 3 assists in 3 games, making him a vital playmaker for Birmingham's attack.
Championship 26/273 assists in 3 appearances, 77 avg mins/game
Analysis
West Brom's defensive unit, led by standout performer Callum Styles, has been particularly effective this season, exceeding league averages in tackles and interceptions. Birmingham, meanwhile, have been consistent scorers recently, with Carlos Vicente leading their charge. However, West Brom's home scoring rate and defensive resilience suggest they can keep Birmingham at bay. The absence of West Brom's key forward due to injury slightly dampens their attacking threat but their overall form and home advantage remain strong factors.
Key facts
- 1.West Brom have a points-per-game advantage of 2.00 compared to Birmingham's 1.38 this season.
- 2.In 17 head-to-head meetings, West Brom have won 8, Birmingham 5, with 4 draws.
- 3.West Brom average 1.5 goals per home game, higher than Birmingham's 1.3 away goals per game.
- 4.Callum Styles exceeds league averages with 2.7 tackles per game versus the league average of 1.2.
- 5.Carlos Vicente has scored 2 goals in 7 appearances, showing strong recent away form.
- 6.Liam Millar leads Birmingham with 3 assists in 3 games, providing key creative threat.
- 7.West Brom's top attacker M. Johnston is out with a broken leg, reducing their scoring options.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a 1-0 victory for West Brom, with the halftime score also predicted to be 1-0. The match is expected to be moderately disciplined, with around four cards likely to be shown. West Brom's ability to score early and maintain a solid defensive line should see them through to a narrow win.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — West Brom
Away — Birmingham
The verdict
In summary, West Brom's home form and defensive prowess give them the edge in this encounter. Birmingham's attacking efforts, spearheaded by Carlos Vicente and creative midfielders Liam Millar and Patrick Roberts, will test the hosts, but ultimately West Brom are expected to hold on for a slender 1-0 victory.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 12:59 UTC · Fipster Model v1.160
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Nzingoula
Yellow Card
Cochrane
Yellow Card
Priske
Penalty
Millar
Solis
Priske
Heggebø
Vicente
Yellow Card
Stansfield
Yellow Card
Myhre
Tobias Christopher Collyer
Stansfield
Vicente
Osayi-Samuel
Yellow Card
Morgan
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 6 |  QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 |  Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 |  West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 |  Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
Match Statistics
West Brom
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1M. O’LearyG
- 2C. MephamD
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 4C. StylesD
- 7F. MyhreM
- 11J. MorganF
- 15Tobias Christopher CollyerM
- 17O. DiakitéM
- 18B. PereiraD
- 19A. HeggebøF
- 20R. NzingoulaM
Substitutes
- 6G. CampbellD
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 9B. StewartF
- 13M. IngramG
- 21I. PriceM
- 22C. TownsendD
- 23T. BanyF
- 29Harry WhitwellM
- 35M. CrowtherM
Birmingham
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. BeadleG
- 4C. KlarerD
- 5P. NeumannD
- 7Carlos VicenteM
- 9A. PriskeF
- 14J. SolisM
- 17L. MillarM
- 20A. CochraneD
- 24T. IwataM
- 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
- 28J. StansfieldM
Substitutes
- 2E. LairdD
- 10D. GrayF
- 16P. RobertsM
- 18M. BirdM
- 19T. Gardner-HickmanM
- 21R. AllsopG
- 23D. FryD
- 32L. VázquezF
- 33M. DuckschF
West Brom
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. O’Leary | G | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Phillips | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| C. Mepham | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Tobias Christopher Collyer | M | 80 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| O. Diakité | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| B. Pereira | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| B. Stewart | F | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Harry Whitwell | M | 10 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Morgan | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| R. Nzingoula | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 0/3 |
| F. Myhre | M | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| I. Price | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Heggebø | F | 70 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Styles | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Crowther | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Molumby | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Townsend | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ingram | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Campbell | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Bany | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Birmingham
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Neumann | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| C. Klarer | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Millar | M | 55 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| J. Solis | M | 69 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| T. Iwata | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/3 |
| M. Bird | M | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| P. Roberts | M | 35 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| A. Priske | F | 69 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| T. Gardner-Hickman | M | 5 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Cochrane | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Beadle | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Osayi-Samuel | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Stansfield | M | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| M. Ducksch | F | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Vicente | M | 85 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| D. Gray | F | 5 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| D. Fry | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Allsop | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Laird | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Vázquez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win West Brom vs Birmingham?
- Fipster's AI model predicted West Brom to win against Birmingham.
- What score did Fipster predict for West Brom vs Birmingham?
- Fipster predicted a final score of West Brom 1–0 Birmingham.
- What were the win probabilities for West Brom vs Birmingham?
- Fipster's model gave West Brom a 62% chance of winning, Birmingham a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 62% confidence — a medium-confidence call.