Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
Paderborn hold Bremen to a draw
Füllkrug's brace not enough as Paderborn share spoils in Bremen.
SC Paderborn 07 stunned Werder Bremen by taking an early two-goal lead through S. Marino and S. Tigges before N. Füllkrug pulled two back for Bremen, including a penalty. The 2-2 draw defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a comfortable home win, proving the visitors more resilient than expected.
Outcome probability
As the Bundesliga regular season unfolds, Werder Bremen look poised to extend their solid start with a convincing win over SC Paderborn 07. Bremen's attacking trio has been in fine fettle, and their home advantage should see them comfortably outscore their visitors.
Match factors
Werder Bremen's attacking trio in strong form
Füllkrug and Grüll show high scoring and assist rates, supported by creative midfielders, likely to exploit Paderborn's defense
Superior home scoring rate for Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen averages 3 goals per home game, well above league average, indicating strong offensive potential at home
Consistent scoring streak for Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen has scored in 5 consecutive games, showing sustained offensive momentum
SC Paderborn missing key defenders and midfielders
Paderborn has 4 confirmed outs including defenders and midfielders, weakening defensive stability against Bremen's attack
The context
Werder Bremen currently sit 4th in the league with 8 points from 5 games, demonstrating consistent form with 2 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 loss. SC Paderborn 07, on the other hand, are 12th with 4 points from 4 games, struggling to find rhythm and missing key defensive and midfield players due to injuries.
Key insights
Niclas Füllkrug
Werder Bremen
Füllkrug is in red-hot form with 4 goals in the last 5 games, making him the key threat up front.
Bundesliga 26/274 goals in last 5 games, 4 starts, 306 mins
Marco Grüll
Werder Bremen
Grüll’s combination of goals and assists, plus his high minutes, underline his importance to Bremen’s attack.
Bundesliga 26/272 goals and 4 assists in recent games, 4 starts, 355 mins
Chuky San José
Werder Bremen
San José’s creativity and 2 assists in 4 games provide the crucial link between midfield and attack.
Bundesliga 26/272 assists in 4 games, 4 starts, 353 mins
Analysis
The statistical edge clearly favours Werder Bremen, who boast a superior points-per-game ratio (1.60) compared to Paderborn's 1.00. Bremen's attacking force, led by Niclas Füllkrug and Marco Grüll, has been prolific, with Füllkrug netting 4 goals in the last 5 games and Grüll contributing both goals and assists. Paderborn's defensive frailties, exacerbated by absences, make them vulnerable to Bremen's high-scoring home performances, which average 3 goals per game.
Key facts
- 1.Werder Bremen are 4th in the league with 8 points from 5 games (W2 D2 L1).
- 2.SC Paderborn 07 are 12th with 4 points from 4 games (W1 D1 L2).
- 3.Werder Bremen average 1.60 points per game, outperforming Paderborn's 1.00.
- 4.Niclas Füllkrug has scored 4 goals in the last 5 games for Bremen.
- 5.Marco Grüll has 2 goals and 4 assists recently, showing strong form.
- 6.Werder Bremen average 3 goals per home game this season.
- 7.SC Paderborn 07 are missing 4 key defenders and midfielders due to injury.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 3.
Prediction
Expect Werder Bremen to take an early lead, reflected in a 2-0 halftime scoreline, before extending their advantage to a 4-1 fulltime victory. The match is also likely to see around 3 cards, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Werder Bremen
Away — SC Paderborn 07
No standout top scorers flagged for SC Paderborn 07
The verdict
With their attacking trio in top form and Paderborn weakened by injuries, Werder Bremen look set to secure a comfortable home win. Fans can anticipate an entertaining match with plenty of goals and a clear winner by the final whistle.
Prediction generated 10 Oct 2026, 15:24 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Marino
Yellow Card
Marino
Assist: Tigges
Tigges
Chuky San José
Füllkrug
Assist: Dinkçi
Dinkçi
Füllkrug
Penalty
Ulrich
Marino
Vidović
Tigges
Reis
Regeer
Yellow Card
Regeer
Hansen
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +9 | 12 |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Werder Bremen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1K. HeinG
- 2O. DemanD
- 5A. PieperD
- 10N. FüllkrugF
- 13ArthurD
- 15L. ReisM
- 17M. GrüllM
- 18E. DinkçiM
- 20Chuky San JoséM
- 32M. FriedlD
- 44Y. RegeerM
Substitutes
- 3O. WójcikD
- 4N. StarkD
- 8M. WeiserD
- 23Dariusz StalmachM
- 26C. IttenF
- 30A. SchlagerG
- 33Mick SchmetgensD
- 34D. SoyluM
- 38P. ErevbenagieF
SC Paderborn 07
3-1-4-2Starting XI
- 5S. CastañedaM
- 15N. NollG
- 17L. CurdaM
- 21J. ter HorstD
- 22M. HansenD
- 23R. ObermairM
- 25T. SchellerD
- 27S. TiggesF
- 28L. UlrichM
- 30S. MarinoF
- 40G. VidovićM
Substitutes
- 1M. SchubertG
- 2Ruben MüllerD
- 3Jonah Benedict StickerD
- 6T. BaackM
- 9R. PhilippeF
- 11S. MichelF
- 18M. PieringerF
- 29C. LippmannD
- 38D. ZeitlerF
Werder Bremen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Füllkrug | F | 90 | 8.2 | 2 | — | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0/3 |
| E. Dinkçi | M | 63 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Y. Regeer | M | 88 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| A. Pieper | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| O. Deman | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| M. Friedl | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Itten | F | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Erevbenagie | F | 2 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Grüll | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3/4 |
| M. Weiser | D | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Arthur | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| L. Reis | M | 79 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Chuky San José | M | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Dariusz Stalmach | M | 11 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| K. Hein | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Soylu | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mick Schmetgens | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Wójcik | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Schlager | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Stark | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
SC Paderborn 07
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Noll | G | 90 | 8.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Tigges | F | 75 | 8.1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0/2 |
| S. Marino | F | 66 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| T. Scheller | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Hansen | D | 88 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Philippe | F | 24 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Pieringer | F | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Castañeda | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. ter Horst | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jonah Benedict Sticker | D | 2 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Ulrich | M | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| R. Obermair | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Vidović | M | 75 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Curda | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| T. Baack | M | 24 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Ruben Müller | D | 15 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Schubert | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Lippmann | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Michel | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Zeitler | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Werder Bremen to win against SC Paderborn 07.
- What score did Fipster predict for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Werder Bremen 4–1 SC Paderborn 07.
- What were the win probabilities for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
- Fipster's model gave Werder Bremen a 95% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.