Watford vs Burnley
Burnley steamroll Watford in dominant display
Four goals, including a first-half hat-trick, leave Watford shell-shocked at home.
Burnley delivered a commanding 4-0 victory over Watford, with J. Bruun Larsen, Z. Amdouni, and R. Hatate all scoring in the first half to effectively seal the game early. M. Edwards added a late fourth to complete the emphatic win. This result was a significant upset, defying Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Watford home win.
Outcome probability
Watford and Burnley face off in a regular season clash where the Hornets look poised to extend their points tally. With Watford showing better form and goal difference, this match promises some attacking football.
Match factors
Watford's midfield creativity vs Burnley's defensive struggles
Watford's midfielders like Nabizada and Kayembe have strong scoring and assist rates, likely to exploit Burnley's leaky defense
Home scoring form boosts Watford's attack
Watford scores 1.5 goals per home game, with key players showing better home scoring rates
Nabizada's consistent scoring form
Nabizada has scored in recent home matches, showing good form and minutes played
Burnley's key attackers out reduces their scoring threat
Burnley missing multiple attackers confirmed out, weakening their offensive options
Watford's defensive midfielders strong in tackles and interceptions
Kyprianou and Pollock provide defensive stability and ball recovery, crucial against Burnley's attack
The context
Watford currently sit 17th in the league with 8 points from 8 games, while Burnley languish near the bottom at 24th with just 3 points from 7 games. Watford's superior goal difference and points per game highlight their edge going into this fixture.
Key insights
Amin Nabizada
Watford
Nabizada’s strong home scoring form with 3 goals in 4 home games makes him a key attacking threat for Watford.
Championship 26/273 goals in 7 apps, 0.43 goals/game
E. Kayembe
Watford
Kayembe contributes both goals and assists, providing creative spark and scoring ability from midfield.
Championship 26/271 goal and 1 assist in 7 apps, 0.14 goals and assists/game
- H
H. Kyprianou
Watford
Kyprianou leads the team in tackles and interceptions, offering strong defensive presence in midfield.
Championship 26/27Above league average tackling rate for midfielders
Analysis
Watford's midfield creativity, led by Amin Nabizada and E. Kayembe, is expected to exploit Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities. Nabizada's strong home scoring form, with 3 goals in 4 home games, makes him a key threat. Burnley's offensive options are weakened due to confirmed absences, further tipping the scales. Defensively, Watford's midfielders Kyprianou and Pollock provide stability, crucial against Burnley's attack. The predicted halftime score of 1-0 aligns with Watford's ability to start strong and maintain control.
Key facts
- 1.Watford are 17th with 8 points from 8 games (W2 D2 L4).
- 2.Burnley are 24th with 3 points from 7 games (W0 D3 L4).
- 3.Watford have a goal difference advantage of +5 over Burnley.
- 4.Watford average 1.5 goals per home game this season.
- 5.Amin Nabizada leads Watford with 3 goals in 7 games, 3 of which were at home.
- 6.Burnley have multiple key attackers confirmed out, weakening their offense.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is 1-0 in favour of Watford.
- 8.The match is expected to see 4 total cards.
Prediction
The forecast is a home win for Watford with a 3-1 final scoreline. The match is expected to see around 4 cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Watford's attacking and defensive strengths, combined with Burnley's struggles, make this a confident call for the Hornets.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Watford
Away — Burnley
No standout top scorers flagged for Burnley
The verdict
In summary, Watford's better form, home advantage, and key player performances should see them comfortably overcome Burnley. Fans can look forward to a lively match with Watford asserting their dominance early and maintaining it through to the final whistle.
Prediction generated 19 Sep 2026, 15:59 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bruun Larsen
Assist: Hatate
Amdouni
Hatate
Assist: Pires
Bravo
Kjerrumgaard
Coulibaly
Nabizada
Amdouni
Ramazani
Doumbia
Bruun Larsen
Alleyne
Edwards
Assist: Pires
Match Statistics
Watford
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1F. RavagliaG
- 3S. CoulibalyD
- 5H. KyprianouM
- 6M. PollockD
- 9L. KjerrumgaardF
- 17Iker BravoM
- 20M. DoumbiaM
- 21Amin NabizadaM
- 23O. TraoréD
- 29Branimir MlačićD
- 39E. KayembeM
Substitutes
- 4K. KebenD
- 7O. MaammaF
- 10M. BoaduF
- 11R. VataF
- 16M. BolaD
- 22M. PayeroM
- 26D. BachmannG
- 33J. ZemuraD
- 45S. MavididiF
Burnley
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2K. WalkerD
- 3Max AlleyneM
- 5R. HatateM
- 7J. Bruun LarsenM
- 11Z. AmdouniF
- 15A. AhmedhodžićD
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 29J. LaurentM
- 37G. CoudertG
- 44IgorD
Substitutes
- 1M. WeißG
- 9J. VardyF
- 10M. EdwardsF
- 12D. SatpaevF
- 14C. RobertsD
- 17A. HountondjiF
- 18H. EkdalD
- 22O. SonneD
- 27A. BrojaF
Watford
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Ravaglia | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Kjerrumgaard | F | 46 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Kyprianou | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Pollock | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Vata | F | 21 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| O. Maamma | F | 55 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/8 |
| J. Zemura | D | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 | — |
| E. Kayembe | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Branimir Mlačić | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Payero | M | 44 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| S. Coulibaly | D | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Amin Nabizada | M | 60 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2/3 |
| M. Doumbia | M | 69 | 6.0 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| M. Boadu | F | 30 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Iker Bravo | M | 35 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| O. Traoré | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| M. Bola | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Bachmann | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Mavididi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Keben | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pires | D | 90 | 8.9 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2/2 |
| R. Hatate | M | 90 | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Bruun Larsen | M | 74 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2/4 |
| Z. Amdouni | F | 62 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 0/3 |
| G. Coudert | G | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Edwards | F | 28 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Igor | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Walker | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Ahmedhodžić | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Laurent | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| D. Satpaev | F | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| A. Broja | F | 6 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| L. Ramazani | M | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 3/5 |
| J. Vardy | F | 27 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Max Alleyne | M | 84 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| O. Sonne | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Ekdal | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Hountondji | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Roberts | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Weiß | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Watford vs Burnley?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Watford to win against Burnley.
- What score did Fipster predict for Watford vs Burnley?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Watford 3–1 Burnley.
- What were the win probabilities for Watford vs Burnley?
- Fipster's model gave Watford a 95% chance of winning, Burnley a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.