Wales vs Denmark
Match recap
Denmark beat Wales 1–0 in their UEFA Nations League fixture. Højlund scored for Denmark. Wales held 56% possession to 44% for Denmark.
Outcome probability
Wales and Denmark face off in a League A encounter where the visitors look poised to extend their dominance. Denmark's attacking prowess and recent form suggest they will outscore Wales comfortably.
Match factors
Denmark's attacking midfield strength
Denmark's midfielders Damsgaard and Højlund show strong scoring form, likely to exploit Wales' defensive vulnerabilities.
Denmark's superior goal-scoring form
Denmark averages 2 goals per game recently, significantly higher than Wales' 0.67, supporting predicted away win.
Wales' defensive struggles at home
Wales conceded in last 3 matches and failed to keep clean sheets, likely to concede multiple goals again.
Wales' midfielders showing attacking potential
D. James and S. Thomas contributed goals and assists recently, could challenge Denmark's defense if form continues.
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so predicted lineups likely at full strength, increasing match competitiveness.
The context
Both teams have played three matches in this competition, each with one win and two losses. Denmark have scored six goals but conceded seven, while Wales have netted two and conceded four. Historically, Denmark have won all three head-to-head meetings, averaging three goals per match.
Key insights
Mikkel Krogh Damsgaard
Denmark
Damsgaard's above-average scoring rate for a midfielder and recent high match ratings make him a key threat.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 goals in last 3 games, match rating 8.71
Rasmus Winther Højlund
Denmark
Højlund's consistent goal scoring and main striker role underpin Denmark's attacking threat.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 goals in last 3 games, match ratings 7.77 and 7.83
- D
Daniel James
Wales
James has contributed goals and maintained high match ratings, offering Wales some attacking hope.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal recently, match rating 8.2
Analysis
Denmark's midfielders, particularly Mikkel Krogh Damsgaard and Rasmus Winther Højlund, have been in fine scoring form, combining for four goals in recent games. Wales have struggled defensively, conceding in their last three matches and failing to keep a clean sheet. Denmark's ability to exploit these defensive vulnerabilities, coupled with their superior goal-scoring rate, gives them a clear edge. Wales' attacking midfielders, including Daniel James, have shown promise but may find it tough to break down Denmark's balanced defense.
Key facts
- 1.Denmark have won all 3 previous head-to-head matches against Wales.
- 2.Denmark average 2 goals per game in this competition, compared to Wales' 0.67.
- 3.Wales have conceded in their last 3 matches and kept no clean sheets.
- 4.Mikkel Krogh Damsgaard has scored 2 goals in the last 3 games for Denmark.
- 5.Rasmus Winther Højlund has also netted 2 goals in the last 3 games.
- 6.The predicted halftime score is 0-1 in favour of Denmark.
- 7.The match is expected to see 3 cards issued.
Prediction
We predict Denmark to lead 1-0 at halftime and extend their advantage to a 3-1 victory by fulltime. The match is expected to feature three cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Wales
No standout top scorers flagged for Wales
Away — Denmark
The verdict
Denmark's consistent away performances and attacking midfield strength make them favourites to secure all three points. Wales will need to tighten their defence and capitalise on their attacking chances to avoid a heavy defeat.
Prediction generated 1 Oct 2026, 20:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Højbjerg
Cullen
Yellow Card
Koumas
James
Cabango
Yellow Card
Højlund
Penalty
Kristensen
Cullen
Johnson
Thomas
Yellow Card
Isaksen
Højlund
Davies
Match Statistics
Wales
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3N. WilliamsD
- 4B. DaviesD
- 5E. AmpaduM
- 6B. CabangoD
- 9L. KoumasF
- 10L. CullenM
- 11B. JohnsonM
- 12D. WardG
- 15J. DasilvaD
- 17J. JamesM
- 19S. ThomasM
Substitutes
- 1D. CornellG
- 2C. MephamD
- 7Cian AshfordF
- 8W. BurnsF
- 13K. MooreF
- 14C. RobertsD
- 16J. LienouD
- 18M. HarrisF
- 20D. JamesF
- 21T. KingG
- 22J. SheehanM
- 23J. ColwillM
Denmark
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2J. AndersenD
- 3O. ProvstgaardD
- 5J. MæhleD
- 7Victor Mow FroholdtF
- 8G. IsaksenM
- 9R. HøjlundF
- 13R. KristensenD
- 16M. HermansenG
- 20M. DaramyM
- 21M. HjulmandM
- 23P. HøjbjergM
Substitutes
- 1A. JungdalG
- 4L. HøgsbergD
- 6V. NelssonD
- 10T. JørgensenM
- 11A. Skov OlsenM
- 12M. BidstrupM
- 15M. KvistgaardenF
- 17A. DaghimF
- 18A. GaaeiD
- 19K. HøghF
- 22F. JörgensenG
Wales
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dasilva | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| D. Ward | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Williams | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| B. Davies | D | 83 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Cullen | M | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. James | M | 56 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| B. Cabango | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Colwill | M | 14 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Sheehan | M | 34 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Moore | F | 7 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| W. Burns | F | 14 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/4 |
| M. Harris | F | 34 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Ampadu | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. Johnson | M | 76 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| S. Thomas | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| L. Koumas | F | 56 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Lienou | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Cornell | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Mepham | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. James | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Roberts | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. King | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cian Ashford | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Denmark
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Mæhle | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Andersen | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Højlund | F | 82 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 5 | 3 | 2 | — |
| O. Provstgaard | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| R. Kristensen | D | 76 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Isaksen | M | 82 | 7.2 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| A. Skov Olsen | M | 80 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| A. Gaaei | D | 14 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Hermansen | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Højbjerg | M | 10 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Daramy | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/7 |
| M. Hjulmand | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Kvistgaarden | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Høgh | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Mow Froholdt | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| A. Jungdal | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Bidstrup | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Daghim | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Jørgensen | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Høgsberg | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Nelsson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Jörgensen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Wales vs Denmark?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Denmark to win against Wales.
- What score did Fipster predict for Wales vs Denmark?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Wales 1–3 Denmark.
- What were the win probabilities for Wales vs Denmark?
- Fipster's model gave Wales a 7% chance of winning, Denmark a 85% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.