Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria edges Vasco DA Gama in tight tussle
Renato Kayzer's second-half strike secures a narrow home victory.
In a closely contested Serie A match, Vitoria managed to break the deadlock with Renato Kayzer's 69th-minute goal, holding on for a 1-0 win over Vasco DA Gama. The slim margin reflects a tight encounter where chances were at a premium. Fipster's prediction of a home win was on the money, though the exact scoreline proved a bit optimistic.
Analysis
Vitoria welcome Vasco DA Gama for a Brazilian Serie A regular season encounter that promises goals and drama. Both sides have shown attacking intent recently, setting the stage for an entertaining evening.
In the 2026 Serie A campaign, Vitoria sit 13th with 22 points from 17 games, while Vasco DA Gama are 17th with 20 points from 18 matches. Both teams have struggled for consistency but have demonstrated moments of attacking quality, making this fixture a crucial opportunity to climb the table.
Vitoria boast a strong home scoring record, averaging 1.8 goals per game, with forwards like Renê Sousa in fine form, netting multiple goals in recent home fixtures. Their top assister, Luan Cândido, has been instrumental with precise crosses and key passes. Vasco DA Gama, despite their defensive vulnerabilities on the road conceding around two goals per away game, rely on Renato Kayzer and David for goals. Midfield maestros Gabriel Baralhas and Thiago Mendes will be pivotal in chance creation for their respective sides. The match is expected to be competitive, with a likely 1-1 halftime scoreline reflecting balanced attacking efforts before Vitoria edge ahead in the second half.
Prediction
The forecast favours a Vitoria home win with a 2-1 final scoreline, supported by a 61% probability. The halftime score is predicted to be 1-1, indicating an evenly matched first half. Expect a total of three cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Confidence in this prediction stands at 60%, bolstered by Vitoria's home form and slight league position advantage.
Outcome probability
Match factors
Vitoria's strong home scoring form
Vitoria averages 1.8 goals at home with key forwards in good form, favoring their attack.
Vasco's defensive vulnerabilities away
Vasco concedes 2 goals per away game on average, increasing chances for Vitoria's scorers.
Vitoria's positive scoring streak at home
Vitoria has scored in 4 of last 5 home games, showing attacking momentum.
Key midfield playmakers on both sides
Gabriel Baralhas and Thiago Mendes are pivotal for creating chances, impacting match flow.
No major injuries reported
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring strongest lineups and tactical plans.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Vitoria's attacking momentum at home and Vasco DA Gama's defensive frailties away set the scene for a narrow home victory. Key players like Renê Sousa and Luan Cândido should shine, while Vasco's Renato Kayzer will look to spoil the party. Fans can anticipate a spirited contest with goals and a few cards to keep things spicy.
- Vitoria rank 13th with 22 points from 17 games (W6 D4 L7).
- Vasco DA Gama rank 17th with 20 points from 18 games (W5 D5 L8).
- Vitoria average 1.8 goals per home game this season.
- Vasco concede approximately 2 goals per away game on average.
- Renê Sousa has scored multiple goals in recent home fixtures for Vitoria.
- Luan Cândido leads Vitoria's assists with 2+ in last 5 home games.
- Renato Kayzer is Vasco's top scorer with consistent away goals.
- Predicted total cards for the match is 3, indicating moderate discipline.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vitoria
Away — Vasco DA Gama
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Zé Vitor
Rojas
Spinelli
Rene
Kayzer
Assist: Tarzia
Adson
Jamerson
Tarzia
Nuno Moreira
Thiago Mendes
Match Statistics
Vitoria
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 6E. MartínezM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 13RamonD
- 25CacáD
- 33ErickM
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 83JamersonD
- 88Zé VitorM
- 91ReneF
Substitutes
- 7MarinhoF
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 15WalaceD
- 23FabrícioF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 41Wendell SacramentoM
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 98MateusinhoD
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 10J. RojasM
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 28AdsonM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 77C. SpinelliF
- 88Cauan BarrosM
Substitutes
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 7DavidF
- 11A. GómezF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 20BrennerF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 98JPM
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Martínez | M | 93 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Jamerson | D | 78 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Cacá | D | 93 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Cândido | D | 93 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramon | D | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| Gabriel Baralhas(C) | M | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | 77 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Zé Vitor | M | 39 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Diego Tarzia | M | 78 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0/2 |
| Renê Sousa | F | 63 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Osvaldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walace | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Sena | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateusinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wendell dos Santos Sacramento | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 30 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Marinho | F | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrício Santos | F | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léo Jardim | G | 93 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Puma Rodríguez | D | 93 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Robert Renan | D | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cauan Barros | M | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Carlos Cuesta | D | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Thiago Mendes(C) | M | 78 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Cuiabano | D | 93 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Johan Rojas | M | 59 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/6 |
| Adson | M | 73 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/4 |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Claudio Spinelli | F | 59 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Lucas Piton | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JP | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramon Rique | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brenner | F | 34 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Andrés Gómez | F | 34 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| David | F | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Marino Hinestroza | F | 20 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |