Vitoria vs Sao Paulo
Match recap
Vitoria beat Sao Paulo 2–0 in their Serie A fixture. Cacá and Ramon scored for Vitoria. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.03 for Vitoria versus 0.67 for Sao Paulo. Vitoria sit 14th in the Serie A table while Sao Paulo are 9th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Vitoria win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
Vitoria and Sao Paulo face off in a regular season clash where the home side looks poised to extend their recent scoring streak. With Vitoria leading at halftime and showing strong offensive momentum, this match promises to be a showcase of their attacking prowess.
Match factors
Vitoria's attacking trio in strong form
Rene, Erick, and Matheuzinho show excellent recent scoring and assisting form, boosting Vitoria's attack potential
Jonathan Calleri's scoring threat for Sao Paulo
Calleri leads Sao Paulo with 10 goals and has strong recent form, posing a key threat despite predicted loss
Vitoria's home scoring streak
Vitoria has scored in last 5 home games, indicating strong offensive momentum at home
Wendell's assist potential from defense
Wendell provides set-piece and crossing threat with 3 assists, aiding Sao Paulo's creativity
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions, ensuring strongest lineups and tactical plans
The context
This fixture is part of the 2026 regular season, round 11. Vitoria currently sit 12th in the league with 36 points, while Sao Paulo are slightly ahead in 9th place with 39 points. Both teams have full squads available, ensuring a competitive encounter.
Key insights
Rene
Vitoria
Leads team scoring with 9 goals, including 4 in the last 5 matches, making him a key offensive threat at home.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 23 apps, 0.39 avg per game
Matheuzinho
Vitoria
Midfielder with 5 goals and 4 assists, excellent home form, crucial in attack build-up.
Serie A 26/275 goals and 4 assists in 27 apps
Erick
Vitoria
Dual threat with 5 goals and 6 assists, strong recent form and synergy with teammates.
Serie A 26/275 goals and 6 assists in 28 apps
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
Top scorer for Sao Paulo with 10 goals, maintaining strong recent form despite predicted loss.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 25 apps, 0.4 avg per game
Wendell
Sao Paulo
Key assister from defense with 3 assists, providing set-piece and crossing threat.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 20 apps
Analysis
Vitoria have demonstrated a potent attacking trio in Rene, Erick, and Matheuzinho, all contributing goals and assists this season. Their home scoring streak, with goals in the last five home games, adds to their confidence. Sao Paulo's Jonathan Calleri remains a key threat with 10 goals, but the visitors' overall goal difference and form suggest they may struggle to contain Vitoria's offensive efforts. Defensive contributions from Sao Paulo's Wendell provide some creativity, but it may not be enough to prevent a home win.
Key facts
- 1.Vitoria are ranked 12th with 36 points from 30 games (W10 D6 L14).
- 2.Sao Paulo are ranked 9th with 39 points from 30 games (W11 D6 L13).
- 3.Vitoria have scored in their last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum.
- 4.Jonathan Calleri is Sao Paulo's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 5.Vitoria's Rene leads their scoring with 9 goals, including 4 in the last 5 matches.
- 6.The predicted final score is 3-0 in favour of Vitoria.
- 7.The halftime score is expected to be 1-0, consistent with the fulltime prediction.
- 8.A total of 4 cards is predicted for the match.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Vitoria with a final score of 3-0, consistent with a halftime lead of 1-0. The match is expected to feature four cards in total, reflecting a competitive but controlled game. Vitoria's attacking form and home advantage make them the clear favourites to secure all three points.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vitoria
Away — Sao Paulo
The verdict
In summary, Vitoria's strong home form and attacking capabilities should see them comfortably overcome Sao Paulo. Fans can expect a confident performance from the home side, with key players like Rene and Matheuzinho making significant contributions to the scoreline.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:05 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Cacá
Assist: Nathan
Marcos Antônio
Yellow Card
Lucas Ramon
Red Card
Ferreira
Cauly
Silva
Díaz
Caíque
Matheuzinho
Kayzer
Tarzia
Yellow Card
dos Santos
Yellow Card
Danielzinho
Ramon
Assist: Baralhas
Baralhas
Yellow Card
Baralhas
Tolói
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
Match Statistics
Vitoria
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 6E. MartínezM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 13RamonD
- 25CacáD
- 33ErickM
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 45NathanD
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 95CaíqueM
Substitutes
- 5RiccieliD
- 8RonaldM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 12D. TarziaD
- 17Aitor CantalapiedraF
- 18KauanD
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 22Gabriel VasconcelosG
- 28AndersonM
- 31R. LópezF
- 88Zé VitorM
- 91ReneF
Sao Paulo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2R. TolóiD
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 11FerreiraM
- 13E. DíazD
- 17André SilvaF
- 23RafaelG
- 28A. FrancoD
- 37ArturM
- 80CaulyM
- 94DanielzinhoM
Substitutes
- 4DóriaD
- 14G. TapiaF
- 18WendellD
- 21Cédric SoaresD
- 30Felipe NegrucciM
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 33LuanM
- 34P. dos SantosF
- 45Lucca Marques AlencarF
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
- 54Osorio LuisD
- 56NicolasD
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 90 | 8.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramon | D | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Cacá | D | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Nathan Mendes | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Emmanuel Martínez | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Erick | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 2/5 |
| Luan Cândido | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Matheuzinho | M | 71 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Baralhas(C) | M | 88 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Caique Gonçalves | M | 66 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 71 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Riccieli | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anderson Pato | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauan | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Vasconcelos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renzo López | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Cantalapiedra | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osvaldo Lourenco Filho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Tarzia | D | 19 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Renê Sousa | F | 19 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Ronald | M | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artur | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3/5 |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 | — |
| Rafael(C) | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Enzo Díaz | D | 66 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 78 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Toloi | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Cauly | M | 57 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Ferreirinha | M | 57 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 3/4 |
| Alan Franco | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| André Silva | F | 66 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 54 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Nicolas Bosshardt | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Ferreira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dória | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Negrucci | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Coronel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Osorio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucca | F | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Gonzalo Tapia | F | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cedric Soares | D | 33 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Tetê | F | 33 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Wendell | D | 24 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vitoria to win against Sao Paulo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vitoria 3–0 Sao Paulo.
- What were the win probabilities for Vitoria vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's model gave Vitoria a 95% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.