Vitoria vs Palmeiras
Palmeiras steamroll Vitoria with four-goal blitz
A dominant Palmeiras display leaves Vitoria rooted to the spot in Serie A.
Palmeiras delivered a commanding 4-0 victory over Vitoria, overturning Fipster's prediction of a narrow home win. The visitors struck twice in stoppage time before half-time through Maurício and an own goal by Fabiano, setting the tone. J. Arias and R. Sosa added further gloss to the scoreline in the second half, sealing a comprehensive win that defied expectations.
Analysis
As the regular season progresses, Vitoria and Palmeiras face off in what promises to be a tightly contested encounter. Despite Palmeiras' superior league standing and historical dominance, Vitoria's home defensive solidity and recent form suggest they can nick a narrow win.
Palmeiras currently top the league with 44 points from 19 games, boasting a +19 goal difference and a 68% win rate. Vitoria sit 11th with 26 points and a -3 goal difference. Historically, Palmeiras have won 10 of their 15 meetings, but recent form and home advantage could level the playing field.
Vitoria's defensive record at home is impressive, conceding just 0.3 goals per game, which could frustrate Palmeiras' potent attack averaging 1.7 goals per away match. Renato Kayzer leads Vitoria's charge with multiple recent goals, while Palmeiras rely on creative midfielder Andreas Pereira and top scorer José López. The predicted 1-0 halftime and fulltime scoreline reflects a match where defensive discipline edges out attacking flair.
Prediction
The forecast is a 1-0 victory for Vitoria, with a halftime lead maintained through to fulltime. The match is expected to feature three cards, indicating a competitive but controlled contest. Vitoria's resilience and key contributions from Kayzer and Tarzia should be enough to overcome Palmeiras' threats.
Outcome probability
Match factors
Vitoria's home defensive solidity vs Palmeiras' attack
Vitoria concedes only 0.3 goals per home game, challenging Palmeiras' 1.7 average goals scored away.
Palmeiras' superior scoring and form
Palmeiras leads league with 68% win rate and 1.7 goals per game, outpacing Vitoria's 37% win rate and 1.2 goals.
Renato Kayzer's recent scoring form
Kayzer has scored multiple goals in recent matches, making him a key threat for Vitoria's predicted 1-0 win.
Andreas Pereira's creative influence for Palmeiras
Pereira's 3 assists recently and high key passes make him a pivotal playmaker despite predicted loss.
Palmeiras' recent dominance in scoring against Vitoria
Palmeiras scored 5 goals in last meeting, showing attacking capability despite current form dip.
Key Takeaways
In summary, while Palmeiras have the statistical edge on paper, Vitoria's home form and defensive strength make them favourites for a narrow win. Expect a tactical battle with limited goals but plenty of intensity, culminating in a 1-0 victory for the home side.
- Palmeiras lead the league with 44 points; Vitoria have 26 points.
- Palmeiras have a +19 goal difference; Vitoria's is -3.
- Palmeiras have won 10 of 15 head-to-head matches; Vitoria only 2.
- Vitoria concede just 0.3 goals per home game, challenging Palmeiras' 1.7 away goals average.
- Renato Kayzer has scored multiple goals recently, key for Vitoria's attack.
- Andreas Pereira has 3 assists in the last 10 matches, pivotal for Palmeiras.
- Predicted total cards in the match is 3, indicating a competitive game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vitoria
Away — Palmeiras
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Freitas
Yellow Card
Maurício
Yellow Card
Martínez
Yellow Card
Cacá
Red Card
Cândido
Red Card
Martínez
Maurício
Assist: Arias
Fabiano (OG)
Gómez
Freitas
Maurício
Matheuzinho
Rene
Fabiano
Yellow Card
Barboza
Brítez
Yellow Card
Fabiano
Arias
Assist: Piquerez
Baralhas
Arias
Sosa
Match Statistics
Vitoria
5-4-1Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 2E. BrítezD
- 6E. MartínezM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 13RamonD
- 25CacáD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 70FabianoD
- 91ReneF
- 95CaíqueM
Substitutes
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 12D. TarziaD
- 15WalaceD
- 23FabrícioF
- 33ErickF
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 83JamersonD
- 88Zé VitorM
- 98MateusinhoD
Palmeiras
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 11J. AriasF
- 15G. GómezD
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 18MaurícioF
- 19R. SosaF
- 22J. PiquerezM
- 26MuriloD
- 40AllanM
Substitutes
- 4A. GiayD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 12KhellvenD
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 21KaiqueG
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 32E. MartínezM
- 37Riquelme FillipiF
- 42J. LópezF
- 43BenedettiD
- 56ArthurD
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Baralhas(C) | M | 74 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Caique Gonçalves | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renê Sousa | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Emmanuel Martínez | M | 41 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Fabiano Souza | D | 67 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Cacá | D | 37 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramon | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Emanuel Brítez | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Cândido | D | 40 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mateusinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Sena | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osvaldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrício Santos | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 49 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Diego Tarzia | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Jamerson | D | 23 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Pochettino | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Walace | D | 16 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhon Arias | F | 74 | 8.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Murilo | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ramón Sosa | F | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | — |
| Mauricio | F | 45 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| Alexander Barboza | D | 65 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Gómez(C) | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Allan | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Joaquín Piquerez | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Agustín Giay | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaique | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Benedetti | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Fillipi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Khellven | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 25 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Emiliano Martínez | M | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Vitor Roque | F | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| José Manuel López | F | 45 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |