Vitoria vs Mirassol
Match recap
Vitoria beat Mirassol 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Baralhas scored for Vitoria. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.88 for Vitoria versus 0.97 for Mirassol. Vitoria sit 14th in the Serie A table while Mirassol are 15th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-0 Vitoria win
Actual
1–0
Outcome probability
Vitoria and Mirassol face off in the eighth round of the regular season, with Vitoria looking to build on their recent home form. Both teams sit mid-table, but Vitoria's attacking prowess at home gives them the edge in this encounter.
Match factors
Vitoria's attacking midfield creativity
Matheuzinho and Erick provide strong goal and assist threat from midfield, key to breaking Mirassol's defense
Rene's goal-scoring form
Rene leads Vitoria with 9 goals and 4 in last 5 games, making him the primary scoring threat
Igor Formiga's dual threat
Mirassol's Igor Formiga excels defensively and offensively with 5 assists, key for transitions and set-pieces
Vitoria's home scoring streak
Vitoria has scored in 4 of last 5 home games, supporting the predicted 2-0 home win
Full squad availability
No confirmed injuries for either team, allowing full strength lineups and tactical plans
The context
Vitoria currently rank 12th with 36 points from 30 games, while Mirassol are close behind in 15th with 33 points. Their head-to-head history shows Vitoria with a slight advantage, having won half of their six meetings. This match is crucial for both sides aiming to climb the standings.
Key insights
Rene
Vitoria
Rene leads Vitoria with 9 goals this season and has scored 4 in his last 5 games, making him the primary scoring threat.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 23 apps, 0.39 goals/game
Matheuzinho
Vitoria
Matheuzinho contributes both goals and assists, with 5 goals and 4 assists this season, excelling particularly at home.
Serie A 26/275 goals and 4 assists in 27 apps
Erick
Vitoria
Erick is Vitoria's top assist provider with 6 assists and also adds 5 goals, providing creativity and goal threat from midfield.
Serie A 26/275 goals and 6 assists in 28 apps
Igor Formiga
Mirassol
Igor Formiga is a key player for Mirassol with 5 assists, contributing significantly to both defence and attack.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 27 apps
Analysis
Vitoria's attack is spearheaded by Rene, who boasts 9 goals this season including 4 in his last 5 games, making him a constant threat. Midfielders Matheuzinho and Erick add creativity and goal contributions, enhancing Vitoria's offensive options. Mirassol's Igor Formiga offers both defensive solidity and offensive support with 5 assists, but containing Vitoria's home momentum will be a tough task. Vitoria have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches, reinforcing their likelihood to secure a clean sheet and a solid win.
Key facts
- 1.Vitoria rank 12th with 36 points from 30 games (W10 D6 L14).
- 2.Mirassol rank 15th with 33 points from 30 games (W8 D9 L13).
- 3.In 6 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria have won 3, Mirassol 1, with 2 draws.
- 4.Rene is Vitoria's top scorer with 9 goals this season, including 4 in the last 5 games.
- 5.Vitoria have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games.
- 6.Igor Formiga leads Mirassol with 5 assists this season.
- 7.No confirmed injuries for either team, allowing full-strength lineups.
Prediction
The forecast is a 2-0 victory for Vitoria, reflecting their strong home form and attacking depth. The predicted scoreline aligns with the most probable outcome, with Vitoria expected to control the game and keep Mirassol at bay.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vitoria
Away — Mirassol
No standout top scorers flagged for Mirassol
The verdict
Vitoria's combination of recent scoring form and home advantage should see them comfortably through against Mirassol. Expect a disciplined performance that results in a clean sheet and a couple of well-earned goals.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:28 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pires
Yellow Card
Baralhas
Martínez
Yellow Card
Pires
Ramon
Kayzer
Unknown
Unknown
Galeano
Matheuzinho
Yellow Card
Cantalapiedra
Erick
Reinaldo
Yellow Card
Edson
Yellow Card
Igor Formiga
Matheuzinho
Baralhas
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
Match Statistics
Vitoria
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 4CamutangaD
- 6E. MartínezM
- 10MatheuzinhoF
- 13RamonD
- 17Aitor CantalapiedraM
- 25CacáD
- 33ErickM
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 45NathanD
- 79Renato KayzerF
Substitutes
- 8RonaldM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 12D. TarziaD
- 22Gabriel VasconcelosG
- 23FabrícioF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 28AndersonM
- 31R. LópezF
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 88Zé VitorM
- 95CaíqueM
Mirassol
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 11NeguebaM
- 18Gabriel PiresM
- 22WalterG
- 27A. GaleanoM
- 29Tiquinho SoaresF
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34João VictorD
Substitutes
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 7ShaylonM
- 8DenilsonM
- 9Nathan FogaçaF
- 10ChicoM
- 12Victor LuísD
- 17Everton GaldinoF
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 77AlessonF
- 95EdsonF
- 99André LuísF
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Baralhas(C) | M | 99 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Camutanga | D | 99 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | F | 75 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Erick | M | 69 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 99 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan Mendes | D | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramon | D | 58 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Aitor Cantalapiedra | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Emmanuel Martínez | M | 99 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Cacá | D | 99 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 58 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Gabriel Vasconcelos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caique Gonçalves | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrício Santos | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Cândido | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osvaldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anderson Pato | M | 30 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Renzo López | F | 41 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jamerson | D | 41 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Diego Tarzia | D | 30 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ronald | M | 24 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
Mirassol
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willian Machado | D | 99 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| João Victor | D | 99 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Reinaldo | D | 99 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 5 | 1/3 |
| Neto Moura | M | 61 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Walter | G | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Negueba | M | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| Yuri Lara | M | 61 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Formiga | D | 73 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Gabriel Pires | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Antonio Galeano | M | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Tiquinho Soares(C) | F | 99 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lucas Oliveira | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Luis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Borges | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan Fogaça | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Muralha | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chico | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Luis | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alesson | F | 26 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Shaylon | M | 38 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Denilson | M | 38 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Everton Galdino | F | 30 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Edson Carioca | F | 54 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vitoria vs Mirassol?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vitoria to win against Mirassol.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vitoria vs Mirassol?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vitoria 2–0 Mirassol.
- What were the win probabilities for Vitoria vs Mirassol?
- Fipster's model gave Vitoria a 85% chance of winning, Mirassol a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.