Vitoria vs Gremio
Vitoria edges Gremio with Rene's strike
A solitary goal after the break secures a narrow home victory.
Vitoria claimed a tight 1-0 win over Gremio in Serie A thanks to Rene's decisive goal in the 63rd minute. The match was a close contest, with the single strike proving enough to separate the sides. Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a 1-0 home win proved spot on, landing accurately without fuss.
Outcome probability
As the regular season approaches its final stages, Vitoria and Gremio face off in what promises to be a tight encounter. Both sides have had their moments this season, but the prediction leans towards a narrow home victory.
Match factors
Vitoria's attacking trio poised to exploit Gremio's defense
Rene and Erick lead Vitoria's attack with strong home form; Gremio concedes 1.33 goals per game away
Carlos Vinícius is Gremio's main goal threat
Vinícius has 10 goals this season, significantly above league average for attackers
Vitoria's recent home form shows scoring potential
Vitoria averages 1.33 goals at home with positive scoring streaks in recent matches
Gustavo Martins' doubtful status may weaken Gremio's defense
Martins is a key defender with strong recent ratings; his fitness is uncertain
Cristian Pavón's assist ability adds creativity to Gremio's attack
Pavón leads Gremio's assists with 3, providing key crosses and set-piece delivery
The context
This fixture is part of the 26th round of the league, with Vitoria sitting 13th on 29 points and Gremio just behind in 15th with 25 points. Historically, Gremio have had the upper hand in head-to-head clashes, winning 11 of 19 matches, but recent form and home advantage give Vitoria a slight edge here.
Key insights
Rene
Vitoria
Top scorer for Vitoria with 5 goals, showing strong home scoring form and key attacking threat.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 17 appearances, 0.29 goals/game
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
Leading scorer with 10 goals, focal point of Gremio's attack despite recent dry spell.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 22 appearances, 0.45 goals/game
Erick
Vitoria
Top assister with 4 assists, creative midfielder providing key chances for Vitoria.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 23 appearances, 0.17 assists/game
- G
Gustavo Martins
Gremio
Doubtful defender whose potential absence could weaken Gremio's defensive stability.
Analysis
Vitoria's attacking duo, Rene and Erick, have been instrumental in their home performances, with Rene netting 5 goals this season and Erick providing creativity with 4 assists. Gremio's main threat comes from Carlos Vinícius, who leads their scoring charts with 10 goals. However, Gremio's defensive solidity might be compromised by the doubtful status of defender Gustavo Martins, which could be a crucial factor. The average goals in their head-to-head matches stand at 2.1, aligning well with the predicted 1-0 scoreline.
Key facts
- 1.Vitoria currently sit 13th in the league with 29 points from 25 games.
- 2.Gremio are 15th with 25 points, just behind Vitoria.
- 3.In 19 head-to-head matches, Gremio have won 11, Vitoria 2, with 6 draws.
- 4.Average goals per head-to-head match is 2.1, supporting a low-scoring prediction.
- 5.Rene is Vitoria's top scorer with 5 goals this season.
- 6.Carlos Vinícius leads Gremio with 10 goals this season.
- 7.Gustavo Martins is doubtful for Gremio, potentially weakening their defence.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is four.
Prediction
The forecast is for Vitoria to take a 1-0 lead into halftime and maintain that advantage to the final whistle. The match is expected to be competitive, with a total of around four cards likely, reflecting the intensity and stakes involved.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vitoria
Away — Gremio
The verdict
In summary, while Gremio have the historical edge, Vitoria's home form and slight league position advantage make them favourites to clinch a narrow victory. Expect a tactical battle with limited goals but plenty of passion.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pedro Gabriel
Yellow Card
Pavón
Yellow Card
Pedro Gabriel
Erick
Yellow Card
Caio Paulista
Yellow Card
Caíque
Yellow Card
Noriega
Yellow Card
Rene
Assist: Mateusinho
Noriega
Pavón
Villasanti
Erick
Carlos Vinícius
Martins
Yellow Card
Caíque
Matheuzinho
Tarzia
Rene
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | +26 | 56 |
| 11 |  Sao Paulo | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | +1 | 33 |
| 12 |  Vitoria | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 13 |  Corinthians | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 32 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | -11 | 29 |
| 16 |  Gremio | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 28 |
| 17 |  Vasco DA Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -12 | 28 |
Match Statistics
Vitoria
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 2E. BrítezD
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 33ErickM
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 88Zé VitorM
- 91ReneF
- 95CaíqueM
- 98MateusinhoD
Substitutes
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 11OsvaldoF
- 18KauanD
- 23FabrícioF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 41Wendell SacramentoM
- 70FabianoD
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 79Renato KayzerF
Gremio
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 7C. PavónM
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 10F. KrovinovićM
- 11TetêM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 82WallaceD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 18João PedroD
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 30Matheus NascimentoF
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 50Bernardo ZorteaM
- 65Riquelme FreitasM
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusinho | D | 90 | 8.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 1/2 |
| Rene | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | M | 82 | 7.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1/2 |
| E. Brítez | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jamerson | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Zé Vitor | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Edenilson | M | 9 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Caíque | M | 81 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Luan Cândido | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| T. Pochettino | M | 8 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | 72 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Fabrício | F | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| D. Tarzia | M | 82 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Marinho | F | 18 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Fabiano | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Sena | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bruno | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wendell Sacramento | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Kauan | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osvaldo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Caito | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Wallace | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo Barbosa | M | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Weverton | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tetê | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| F. Krovinović | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Caio Paulista | D | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Pavón | M | 69 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| J. Enamorado | F | 21 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| M. Villasanti | M | 69 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Nardoni | M | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 78 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. Noriega | M | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Braithwaite | F | 12 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Riquelme Freitas | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Nascimento | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Balbuena | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Zortea | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |