Vitoria vs Fluminense
Match recap
Fluminense beat Vitoria 3–0 in their Serie A fixture. Savarino, Canobbio, and Castillo scored for Fluminense. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.77 for Vitoria versus 1.29 for Fluminense. Vitoria sit 15th in the Serie A table while Fluminense are 4th.
Outcome probability
This clash between Vitoria and Fluminense promises an entertaining encounter with goals aplenty. Both sides have shown attacking intent in their previous meetings, setting the stage for an open game.
Match factors
Vitoria's attacking trio in strong recent form
Rene, Erick, and Matheuzinho show strong scoring and assisting form at home, aligning with predicted 3 goals
Fluminense's John Kennedy is top scorer but recent drought
John Kennedy leads Fluminense with 9 goals but has no goals in last 5 games, possibly limiting threat
Matheuzinho's recent home form boosts Vitoria's creativity
Matheuzinho has 2 goals and 2 assists in last 5 games at home, driving Vitoria's attack
Erick's dual role as scorer and assister key for Vitoria
Erick leads Vitoria in assists (6) and contributes 5 goals, enhancing attacking options
Fluminense's assist providers less prolific recently
Top assisters like Acosta and Serna have limited recent assists, possibly reducing supply to forwards
The context
The rivalry between Vitoria and Fluminense is well balanced, with each side having won five of their 17 head-to-head matches and seven draws. Fluminense currently sit 4th in the league with 54 points, while Vitoria are 14th with 38 points, highlighting a gap in season performance but not necessarily in this fixture's outcome.
Key insights
Rene
Vitoria
Top scorer for Vitoria with 10 goals, showing strong home scoring form with 2 goals in last 10 home games.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 25 appearances, 0.4 avg per game
Matheuzinho
Vitoria
Creative midfielder with 5 goals and 4 assists, excellent recent home form with multiple goals and assists.
Serie A 26/275 goals and 4 assists in 30 appearances
Erick
Vitoria
Leading assist provider with 6 assists and 5 goals, key dual threat in attack, especially effective at home.
Serie A 26/276 assists and 5 goals in 31 appearances
John Kennedy
Fluminense
Top scorer for Fluminense with 9 goals but has not scored in last 5 games, possibly limiting offensive threat.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 19 appearances, 0.47 avg per game
- J
Jefferson Savarino Quintero
Fluminense
Strong attacking output with 6 goals and 3 assists, good recent form with 3 goals in last 5 games.
Serie A 26/276 goals and 3 assists in 29 appearances
Analysis
Vitoria's attacking trio of Rene, Erick, and Matheuzinho have been in fine form at home, combining for goals and assists that align with the predicted three goals for the hosts. Fluminense's top scorer John Kennedy has struggled to find the net recently, which may limit their offensive threat despite their superior goal difference. Additionally, Fluminense's key assist providers have been less prolific lately, potentially reducing supply to their forwards.
Key facts
- 1.Vitoria and Fluminense have each won 5 of their 17 head-to-head matches, with 7 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals, close to the predicted 4 goals in this game.
- 3.Fluminense rank 4th with 54 points; Vitoria are 14th with 38 points this season.
- 4.Fluminense have a significantly better goal difference (+21) than Vitoria (-11).
- 5.Vitoria's Rene is the top scorer with 10 goals this season, showing strong home form.
- 6.Erick leads Vitoria in assists with 6 and has scored 5 goals this season.
- 7.Fluminense's John Kennedy leads their scoring with 9 goals but has not scored in the last 5 games.
- 8.Matheuzinho has contributed 5 goals and 4 assists, excelling in recent home matches.
Prediction
We expect Vitoria to take an early lead and maintain control, heading into halftime 1-0. Their momentum and home advantage should see them extend the lead to a 3-1 victory by fulltime. The match is also likely to feature around three cards, reflecting a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vitoria
Away — Fluminense
The verdict
In summary, Vitoria's recent home form and attacking efficiency give them the edge over Fluminense. While the visitors have had a stronger season overall, this match looks set for a confident home win with a 3-1 scoreline.
Prediction generated 2 Nov 2026, 06:07 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Savarino
Assist: Canobbio
Canobbio
Assist: Nonato
Mateusinho
Yellow Card
Caíque
Matheuzinho
Hulk
Acosta
Rene
Martínez
Guga
Savarino
Mateusinho
Canobbio
Silva
Yellow Card
Castillo
Assist: Nonato
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | +10 | 54 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +8 | 54 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | -13 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -4 | 38 |
Match Statistics
Vitoria
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 6E. MartínezM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 25CacáD
- 33ErickM
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 83JamersonD
- 91ReneF
- 95CaíqueM
- 98MateusinhoD
Substitutes
- 7MarinhoF
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 12D. TarziaD
- 15WalaceD
- 16Rúben IsmaelM
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 59GeanD
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 77I. LaquintanaM
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 88Zé VitorM
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 6RenêD
- 7HulkF
- 11J. SavarinoM
- 16NonatoM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 22J. FreytesD
- 23GugaD
- 32L. AcostaM
- 35HérculesM
Substitutes
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 10PH GansoM
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 14G. CanoF
- 19R. CastilloF
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 27MarceloG
- 28RiquelmeF
- 30Y. SoteldoF
- 34Wesley NatãF
- 90K. SernaF
- 94OtávioM
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamerson | D | 82 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 5/5 |
| Erick | M | 82 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Renê Sousa | F | 78 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Emmanuel Martínez | M | 79 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Matheuzinho | M | 63 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 4/4 |
| Caique Gonçalves | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Baralhas | M | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Mateusinho | D | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Luan Cândido | D | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Cacá | D | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Arcanjo(C) | G | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Walace | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gean de Jesus Soares | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Tarzia | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bruno | F | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Sena | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rúben Ramos Ismael | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignacio Laquintana | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | F | 37 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/6 |
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agustín Canobbio | M | 82 | 9.3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Hulk | F | 69 | 8.0 | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | 3/3 |
| Nonato | M | 82 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Hércules | M | 82 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Luciano Acosta | M | 69 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1/1 |
| Thiago Silva(C) | D | 82 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jefferson Savarino | M | 81 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Juan Pablo Freytes | D | 82 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Fábio | G | 82 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renê | D | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Guga | D | 81 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Guilherme Arana | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yeferson Soteldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Marcelo Pitaluga | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Felipe | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wesley Natã | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Germán Cano | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Serna | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ganso | M | 13 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Rodrigo Castillo | F | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vitoria vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vitoria to win against Fluminense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vitoria vs Fluminense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vitoria 3–1 Fluminense.
- What were the win probabilities for Vitoria vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's model gave Vitoria a 95% chance of winning, Fluminense a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.