Vitoria vs Flamengo
Match recap
Flamengo beat Vitoria 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Matheuzinho scored for Vitoria; Pulgar and Everton replied for Flamengo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.83 for Vitoria versus 0.77 for Flamengo. Vitoria sit 14th in the Serie A table while Flamengo are 2nd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-2 Vitoria win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
This clash between Vitoria and Flamengo promises to be a nail-biter, with both sides boasting attacking talent and recent goal-scoring form. Expect a lively contest with plenty of goalmouth action.
Match factors
Vitoria's attacking midfield strength vs Flamengo's defense
Vitoria's Matheuzinho and Erick have strong recent form and creativity, potentially exploiting Flamengo's defensive vulnerabilities.
Pedro's prolific scoring form for Flamengo
Pedro leads Flamengo with 15 goals this season, showing consistent scoring ability and high minutes played.
Vitoria missing key midfielders and defenders
Vitoria is without key players like Gabriel Baralhas and Camutanga, weakening midfield creativity and defense.
Vitoria's recent home scoring streak
Vitoria has scored in their last 5 home games, showing positive attacking momentum at home.
Flamengo missing key midfielder de Arrascaeta
Flamengo's creative midfielder Giorgian de Arrascaeta is out, potentially reducing attacking creativity.
The context
In the regular season's third round, Vitoria and Flamengo face off in a match where Flamengo currently lead the league standings, while Vitoria sit mid-table. Flamengo have a superior goal difference and points-per-game ratio, but Vitoria's recent home scoring streak adds an intriguing dynamic.
Key insights
Matheuzinho
Vitoria
Matheuzinho's creativity and goal threat at home could exploit Flamengo's defensive gaps.
Serie A 26/275 goals and 4 assists this season
Pedro
Flamengo
Pedro's consistent scoring makes him a constant threat for Vitoria's defence.
Serie A 26/2715 goals in 28 apps this season
Rene
Vitoria
Rene's recent goal-scoring form and home performances make him a key attacking focal point.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 23 apps, 4 goals in last 5 games
Erick
Vitoria
Erick's involvement in goals and strong home form add to Vitoria's attacking options.
Serie A 26/275 goals and 6 assists this season
Analysis
Flamengo's Pedro is a prolific scorer with 15 goals this season, consistently finding the net and posing a constant threat. However, Vitoria's attacking midfield duo, Matheuzinho and Erick, have been in fine form at home, combining creativity and goal threat that could exploit Flamengo's defensive vulnerabilities. Vitoria's absence of key midfielders and defenders may weaken their defensive solidity, but their recent home scoring momentum and attacking prowess could tip the scales. Flamengo's creative midfielder Giorgian de Arrascaeta is out, potentially reducing their attacking creativity and giving Vitoria a slight edge.
Key facts
- 1.Vitoria have scored in their last 5 home games, showing strong attacking form.
- 2.Flamengo lead the league with 61 points from 29 games, compared to Vitoria's 36 points.
- 3.Pedro is Flamengo's top scorer with 15 goals this season.
- 4.Vitoria's Matheuzinho has 5 goals and 4 assists this season, excelling at home.
- 5.Flamengo's Giorgian de Arrascaeta is out, impacting their midfield creativity.
- 6.Vitoria are missing key midfielders and defenders, affecting their defensive stability.
- 7.Flamengo have a significantly better goal difference than Vitoria this season.
- 8.The predicted total cards count for the match is 4, indicating a competitive game.
Prediction
Despite Flamengo's strong league position and scoring record, the prediction leans towards a home win for Vitoria with a 3-2 scoreline. The match is expected to be competitive and high-scoring, with Vitoria's attacking players likely to make the difference in a closely contested encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vitoria
Away — Flamengo
The verdict
All in all, expect a thrilling match where Vitoria's attacking flair and home momentum could just outgun Flamengo's firepower. A 3-2 victory for Vitoria seems the most likely outcome, but with such fine margins, anything could happen.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:29 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pulgar
Assist: Everton
Everton
Yellow Card
Matheuzinho
Yellow Card
Léo Pereira
Yellow Card
Everton
Assist: Léo Ortiz
Kayzer
Yellow Card
Matheuzinho
Assist: Baralhas
Evertton Araújo
Yellow Card
Paquetá
Pedro
Evertton Araújo
Everton
Erick
Matheuzinho
Kayzer
Dudu
Martínez
Yellow Card
de Arrascaeta
Ramon
Alex Sandro
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Vitoria
5-4-1Starting XI
- 4CamutangaD
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 13RamonD
- 21DuduM
- 22Gabriel VasconcelosG
- 33ErickM
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 45NathanD
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 95CaíqueD
Substitutes
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 3Zé MarcosD
- 6E. MartínezM
- 7MarinhoF
- 8RonaldM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 17Aitor CantalapiedraF
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 23FabrícioF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 77NerisD
- 98MateusinhoD
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. RossiG
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 9PedroF
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 11EvertonM
- 20Lucas PaquetáM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 26Alex SandroD
- 52Evertton AraújoM
Substitutes
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 13DaniloD
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 18N. de la CruzM
- 19G. PlataF
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 42AndrewG
- 44VitãoD
- 51Daniel SalesD
- 56LucioM
- 64WallaceF
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheuzinho | M | 67 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Dudu | M | 79 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/5 |
| Nathan Mendes | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | 67 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Baralhas(C) | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Camutanga | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Luan Cândido | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Ramon | D | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caique Gonçalves | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Gabriel Vasconcelos | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Edenilson Santos Nascimento Filho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateusinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Marcos | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ronald | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neris | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osvaldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marinho | F | 23 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrício Santos | F | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Cantalapiedra | F | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emmanuel Martínez | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Flamengo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erick Pulgar | M | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Everton | M | 65 | 7.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/6 |
| Agustín Rossi | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giorgian De Arrascaeta(C) | M | 87 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Emerson Royal | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Pedro | F | 56 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 56 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Evertton Araujo | M | 65 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Sandro | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Andrew | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Sales | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitão | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Lucio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallace Yan | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Carrascal | M | 34 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Nicolás de la Cruz | M | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Gonzalo Plata | F | 34 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vitoria vs Flamengo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vitoria to win against Flamengo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vitoria vs Flamengo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vitoria 3–2 Flamengo.
- What were the win probabilities for Vitoria vs Flamengo?
- Fipster's model gave Vitoria a 35% chance of winning, Flamengo a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.