Vitoria vs Corinthians
Match recap
Vitoria and Corinthians drew 0–0 in their Serie A fixture. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.65 for Vitoria versus 0.18 for Corinthians. Vitoria sit 14th in the Serie A table while Corinthians are 17th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Vitoria win
Actual
0–0
Outcome probability
Vitoria and Corinthians face off in the 12th round of the regular season, with both sides eager to improve their league standings. The match promises attacking intent, but Vitoria's recent home performances suggest they have the edge.
Match factors
Vitoria's attacking trio in strong recent form
Rene, Matheuzinho, and Erick have combined for multiple goals and assists recently, boosting Vitoria's scoring potential
Corinthians' creative winger Garro leads assists
Rodrigo Garro tops Corinthians' assists with 6 this season, providing key chances from wide areas
Vitoria's home scoring streak supports predicted win
Vitoria has scored in 4 of last 5 home matches, aligning with predicted 3 goals in this fixture
Corinthians' defense anchored by Bidu and Gustavo Henrique
Both defenders show strong defensive stats and contribute offensively, crucial against Vitoria's attack
The context
Vitoria currently sit 12th in the league with 36 points from 30 games, while Corinthians are 16th with 32 points from the same number of matches. Historically, Corinthians have had the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, but recent form and home advantage could tilt the balance.
Key insights
Rene
Vitoria
Top scorer for Vitoria with 9 goals, including 4 in the last 5 matches, making him a key attacking threat at home.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 23 apps, 0.39 goals/game
- M
Matheuzinho
Vitoria
Creative midfielder with 5 goals and 4 assists this season, showing excellent home form and goal involvement.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 27 apps, 0.19 goals/game; 4 assists in 27 apps, 0.15 assists/game
Erick
Vitoria
Top assister with 6 assists and 5 goals this season, contributing significantly to Vitoria's attacking play.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 28 apps, 0.18 goals/game; 6 assists in 28 apps, 0.21 assists/game
Rodrigo Garro
Corinthians
Leading assister for Corinthians with 6 assists, providing key chances from wide areas and creative playmaking.
Serie A 26/276 assists in 27 apps, 0.22 assists/game
Analysis
Vitoria's attacking trio of Rene, Matheuzinho, and Erick have been in fine form, combining for multiple goals and assists recently. Rene, the team's top scorer with 9 goals this season, has been particularly effective at home. Corinthians rely on creative winger Rodrigo Garro, who leads their assists tally with 6 this season. Defensively, Corinthians have solid figures with Matheus Bidu and Gustavo Henrique anchoring the backline. However, Vitoria's home scoring streak, having found the net in 4 of their last 5 home matches, supports the prediction of a 3-1 home win.
Key facts
- 1.Vitoria are 12th in the league with 36 points from 30 games (W10 D6 L14).
- 2.Corinthians are 16th in the league with 32 points from 30 games (W8 D8 L14).
- 3.In 19 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria have won 2, Corinthians 9, with 8 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.1 total goals (15 for Vitoria, 24 for Corinthians).
- 5.Vitoria have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- 6.Rene is Vitoria's top scorer with 9 goals this season, including strong recent form.
- 7.Rodrigo Garro leads Corinthians with 6 assists this season.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
The prediction favours a Vitoria victory by 3-1. Home wins dominate the outcome probabilities with a 91.5% aggregate chance, and the 3-1 scoreline is the most likely specific result. While the confidence in the exact scoreline is low due to some uncertainty, the data clearly points to Vitoria outscoring Corinthians in this encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vitoria
Away — Corinthians
The verdict
Expect Vitoria to leverage their home form and attacking momentum to secure a convincing win over Corinthians. While the visitors have their strengths, the home side's recent performances and key players should see them through to a 3-1 victory.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:29 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kayzer
Garro
Yellow Card
Breno
Raniele
Milans
Matheuzinho
Caíque
Kayke
Garro
Bidu
Yellow Card
Baralhas
Erick
Nathan
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
Match Statistics
Vitoria
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 6E. MartínezM
- 10MatheuzinhoF
- 13RamonD
- 25CacáD
- 33ErickF
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 45NathanD
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 95CaíqueM
Substitutes
- 8RonaldM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 12D. TarziaD
- 17Aitor CantalapiedraF
- 18KauanD
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 22Gabriel VasconcelosG
- 26EdenilsonM
- 31R. LópezF
- 62PabloM
- 88Zé VitorM
- 91ReneF
Corinthians
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 7BrenoM
- 8R. GarroM
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 14RanieleM
- 19A. CarrilloM
- 20P. MilansD
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 31KaykeM
Substitutes
- 5André RamalhoD
- 11VitinhoF
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 23Matheus PereiraM
- 26F. AngileriD
- 29AllanM
- 37Kaio CésarF
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 52Z. LabyadF
- 55I. MachadoD
- 61DieguinhoM
- 77J. LingardM
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luan Cândido | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Erick | F | 89 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 0/3 |
| Nathan Mendes | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caique Gonçalves | M | 76 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Cacá | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emmanuel Martínez | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Ramon | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Matheuzinho | F | 76 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Baralhas(C) | M | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lucas Silva | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Cantalapiedra | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauan | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ronald | M | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Gabriel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osvaldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renzo López | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Tarzia | D | 14 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renê Sousa | F | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
Corinthians
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Paulista | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Matheus Bidu | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Andre Carrillo | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Henrique | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Hugo Souza | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Milans | D | 64 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Breno Bidon | M | 55 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Kayke Ferrari | M | 77 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Yuri Alberto | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Rodrigo Garro(C) | M | 77 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Raniele | M | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Dieguinho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauê | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrizio Angileri | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Machado | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Raul | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andre Ramalho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaio César | F | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 35 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jesse Lingard | M | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 26 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zakaria Labyad | F | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vitoria vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vitoria to win against Corinthians.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vitoria vs Corinthians?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vitoria 3–1 Corinthians.
- What were the win probabilities for Vitoria vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's model gave Vitoria a 35% chance of winning, Corinthians a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.