Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc
Vitoria dismantle Chapecoense with clinical four-goal display
Erick and Matheuzinho each net a brace to secure a dominant home victory.
Vitoria put on a commanding show in Serie A, cruising to a 4-0 win over Chapecoense. Erick opened the scoring in the first half and added a second after the break, while Matheuzinho matched his brace with goals in the second half as well. This emphatic result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of an away win for Chapecoense, proving the home side's superiority on the day.
Outcome probability
This fixture between Vitoria and Chapecoense-sc promises a competitive encounter as both sides look to improve their standings in the league. With Vitoria holding a points and goal difference advantage, and Chapecoense-sc showing recent attacking momentum, the match could be finely balanced.
Match factors
Rene's scoring form vs Chapecoense's defense
Rene has scored 8 goals this season with strong recent form, posing a major threat to Chapecoense's leaky defense
Chapecoense's creative midfield led by Giovanni Augusto
Giovanni Augusto leads Chapecoense with 5 assists, providing key chances and linking play effectively
Vitoria missing key midfielders weakens creativity
Vitoria is without Gabriel Baralhas and several midfielders, reducing their assist potential and midfield control
Chapecoense's consistent scoring streak
Chapecoense has scored in their last 5 matches, showing attacking momentum despite defensive issues
Defensive stalwart Luan Cândido's role in Vitoria's defense
Luan Cândido's solid defensive and assist stats provide stability and occasional attacking support
The context
Vitoria currently sit 13th in the league with 33 points from 27 games, while Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 18 points. Historically, their head-to-head record is close, with Vitoria winning 5 of 13 matches and Chapecoense-sc 4, alongside 4 draws. The average goals per meeting stand at 2.0, indicating a modest scoring trend in their encounters.
Key insights
Rene
Vitoria
Rene leads Vitoria’s scoring with 8 goals and has been in strong recent form, making him a key threat against Chapecoense’s defence.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 19 games, 4 goals in last 5 games
Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
Giovanni Augusto is Chapecoense’s top assister with 5 assists, providing crucial creativity and linking play effectively.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 18 games
Marcinho
Chapecoense-sc
Marcinho is Chapecoense’s leading scorer with 5 goals and has been consistent, especially away from home.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 25 games
Analysis
Chapecoense-sc have scored in their last five matches, showing encouraging attacking form despite their defensive struggles. Their top scorer Marcinho has been consistent, especially away from home, while Giovanni Augusto leads their creative efforts with 5 assists this season. Vitoria, on the other hand, rely heavily on Rene, who has netted 8 goals and is in strong recent form. However, Vitoria face a challenge with some key midfielders missing, which could hamper their creativity and control in the middle of the park. Defensively, Vitoria's Luan Cândido provides stability, but Chapecoense's attacking momentum might just tip the scales.
Key facts
- 1.Vitoria rank 13th with 33 points from 27 games (W9 D6 L12).
- 2.Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 18 points from 27 games (W3 D9 L15).
- 3.In 13 head-to-head matches, Vitoria have 5 wins, Chapecoense-sc 4, with 4 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.0 goals (14 for Vitoria, 12 for Chapecoense-sc).
- 5.Vitoria have a goal difference of +12; Chapecoense-sc have -24.
- 6.Vitoria average 1.22 points per game, Chapecoense-sc 0.67.
- 7.Chapecoense-sc have scored in their last 5 matches, showing attacking momentum.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards an away win for Chapecoense-sc with a 2-1 scoreline. While Vitoria have the statistical edge in the league and head-to-head, Chapecoense's recent scoring consistency and key creative players suggest they can snatch a narrow victory. Expect a closely fought game with both sides finding the net, but Chapecoense edging it in the end.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vitoria
Away — Chapecoense-sc
The verdict
This match could be a classic case of form versus stats, with Chapecoense's attacking rhythm potentially overcoming Vitoria's overall season advantages. Fans should anticipate a tight contest with moments of quality from standout players on both sides. A 2-1 away win for Chapecoense seems the most likely outcome, but the margin will be slim.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 21:04 UTC · Fipster Model v1.161
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Erick
Assist: Matheuzinho
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Cândido
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Unknown
Matheuzinho
Assist: Mateusinho
Erick
Assist: Matheuzinho
Unknown
Unknown
Tarzia
Yellow Card
Tarzia
Unknown
Matheuzinho
Unknown
Caíque
Matheuzinho
Erick
Rene
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -32 | 18 |
Match Statistics
Vitoria
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 6E. MartínezM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 25CacáD
- 33ErickM
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 91ReneF
- 95CaíqueM
- 98MateusinhoD
Substitutes
- 2E. BrítezD
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 15WalaceM
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 23FabrícioF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 77I. LaquintanaM
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 88Zé VitorM
Chapecoense-sc
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3DomaD
- 7MarcinhoM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 20Bruno TubarãoD
- 21Kauan Faria GomesD
- 27CamiloM
- 31GarcezM
- 88Yago FelipeM
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 98AndersonG
Substitutes
- 4João PauloD
- 11Y. BolasieF
- 12FernandoD
- 15Rafael ThyereD
- 16Bruno MatiasM
- 19David AntunesM
- 29F. RossiF
- 30Matheus AurélioG
- 39RodrigoF
- 80Miguel CarvalhoM
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheuzinho | M | 76 | 9.9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | — |
| Erick | M | 77 | 9.8 | 2 | — | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Mateusinho | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Jamerson | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 4/4 |
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Luan Cândido | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caíque | M | 76 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Martínez | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Cacá | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Pochettino | M | 14 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| I. Laquintana | M | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 10 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Walace | M | 14 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Tarzia | M | 66 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Rene | F | 80 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| Lucas Silva | F | 24 | 6.2 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Edenilson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrício | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marinho | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Sena | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bruno | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Brítez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Chapecoense-sc to win against Vitoria.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vitoria 1–2 Chapecoense-sc.
- What were the win probabilities for Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc?
- Fipster's model gave Vitoria a 32% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.