Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense share spoils
A tight 1-1 draw sees both sides settle for a point in Serie A.
The match between Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense ended in a 1-1 stalemate, with an own goal from Jamerson gifting Vitoria an early lead before Renato Kayzer equalised in the first half. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-2 home win, the teams ultimately shared the points, defying expectations for a more decisive outcome.
Outcome probability
This fixture between Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense promises an exciting contest, with both sides boasting strong attacking talents and a history of high-scoring encounters.
Match factors
Vitoria's Rene and Atletico's Viveros lead scoring charts
Rene has 9 goals this season with strong recent form; Viveros tops league with 21 goals, making them key scoring threats
Erick and Matheuzinho are key creators for Vitoria
Erick leads with 6 assists and Matheuzinho has 4 assists, both showing strong recent creative output
Atletico Paranaense's attacking threat on the road
Atletico scores 1.47 goals per away game, with Viveros and Leozinho contributing significantly
Vitoria's home scoring streak supports predicted win
Vitoria has scored in last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum at home
Set-piece threat from Atletico's Benavídez and Vitoria's Matheuzinho
Both players have multiple assists from set-pieces, adding a tactical edge in dead-ball situations
The context
Atletico Paranaense currently sit 3rd in the league with 53 points, showing stronger form than Vitoria, who are 13th with 36 points. Their head-to-head record slightly favours Atletico Paranaense with 9 wins to Vitoria's 6 in 17 meetings, and their matches typically produce over three goals on average.
Key insights
Rene
Vitoria
Top scorer for Vitoria with 9 goals, showing strong recent form with 4 goals in last 5 matches and key home performances.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 22 apps, 0.41 avg per game
K. Viveros
Atletico Paranaense
League top scorer with 21 goals, prolific in recent games and a major threat away from home with 7 goals in last 10 away matches.
Serie A 26/2721 goals in 29 apps, 0.72 avg per game
Erick
Vitoria
Leading assister with 6 assists, strong recent creative form and good connection with key scorers.
Serie A 26/276 assists in 29 apps, 0.21 avg per game
Matheuzinho
Vitoria
Creative midfielder with 4 assists and 5 goals, excellent recent form with 3 assists and 2 goals in last 5 home games.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 29 apps, 0.14 avg per game
Gastón Benavídez
Atletico Paranaense
Top assisting defender with 5 assists, strong set-piece delivery and consistent starter providing defensive stability.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 22 apps, 0.23 avg per game
Analysis
Vitoria's Rene leads their scoring charts with 9 goals and has been in fine form recently, netting 4 in his last 5 games, particularly thriving at home. Meanwhile, Atletico Paranaense's K. Viveros is the league's top scorer with 21 goals, including a strong away record. Creative forces like Erick and Matheuzinho for Vitoria and João Cruz for Atletico Paranaense add to the attacking threat. Both teams also pose set-piece dangers through players like Gastón Benavídez and Matheuzinho, which could be decisive in a close match.
Key facts
- 1.Atletico Paranaense lead head-to-head with 9 wins to Vitoria's 6 in 17 matches.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals, indicating a high-scoring fixture.
- 3.Atletico Paranaense rank 3rd with 53 points; Vitoria are 13th with 36 points.
- 4.Atletico Paranaense have a points-per-game advantage of 1.71 versus Vitoria's 1.20.
- 5.Vitoria's Rene has scored 9 goals this season, with 4 in the last 5 matches.
- 6.K. Viveros is the league's top scorer with 21 goals, including strong away form.
- 7.Erick and Matheuzinho are key creators for Vitoria with 6 and 4 assists respectively.
- 8.Gastón Benavídez provides set-piece threat for Atletico Paranaense with 5 assists.
Prediction
We expect a tightly contested match with a 1-1 scoreline at halftime, reflecting the balanced nature of the game. However, Vitoria's home scoring momentum and key players' form should see them edge out Atletico Paranaense 3-2 by full time.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vitoria
Away — Atletico Paranaense
The verdict
This encounter is set to deliver plenty of goals and drama, with Vitoria narrowly prevailing thanks to their attacking prowess and home advantage. Fans should brace for an entertaining night of football.
Prediction generated 20 Oct 2026, 01:06 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Jádson
Yellow Card
Jamerson (OG)
Goal confirmed
Kayzer
Assist: Brítez
Tarzia
Yellow Card
Luiz Gustavo
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Mateusinho
Tarzia
João Cruz
Kayzer
Matheuzinho
Unknown
Luiz Gustavo
Leozinho
Erick
Gilberto
Yellow Card
Marinho
Red Card
Cândido
Yellow Card
Viveros
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
Match Statistics
Vitoria
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 2E. BrítezD
- 6E. MartínezM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 12D. TarziaM
- 33ErickM
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 83JamersonD
- 95CaíqueM
- 98MateusinhoD
Substitutes
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 11OsvaldoF
- 15WalaceM
- 20Lucas SilvaF
- 23FabrícioF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 77I. LaquintanaM
- 88Zé VitorM
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1MycaelG
- 7S. MendozaM
- 8João CruzM
- 9K. ViverosF
- 12GilbertoM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 16JádsonM
- 21LeozinhoM
- 33J. AguirreD
- 37L. EsquivelD
Substitutes
- 2GilbertoD
- 3LéoD
- 5FelipinhoD
- 6DerikD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 19Jorge Luis Rivaldo PintoF
- 23SantosG
- 27J. PortillaM
- 47ChiquetiM
- 53DuduM
- 70RenanF
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Kayzer | F | 80 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Mateusinho | D | 46 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/1 |
| E. Brítez | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Martínez | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Walace | M | 44 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alex Bruno | F | 3 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Caíque | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Tarzia | M | 68 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Fabrício | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Cândido | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | F | 22 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Matheuzinho | M | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/5 |
| T. Pochettino | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | 87 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 3/5 |
| Marinho | F | 95 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jamerson | D | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Edenilson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osvaldo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Laquintana | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Sena | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Esquivel | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Aguirre | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mycael | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Portilla | M | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jádson | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| João Cruz | M | 71 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 81 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| S. Mendoza | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| K. Viveros | F | 96 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| Leozinho | M | 81 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Gilberto | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Dudu | M | 9 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| B. Zapelli | M | 19 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Chiqueti | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Derik | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renan | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipinho | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santos | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vitoria to win against Atletico Paranaense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vitoria 3–2 Atletico Paranaense.
- What were the win probabilities for Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster's model gave Vitoria a 69% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 15% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 69% confidence — a high-confidence call.