VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayern München
Match recap
Bayern München beat VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 in their Bundesliga fixture. Olise scored for Bayern München. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 3.04 for VfL Wolfsburg versus 1.85 for Bayern München. VfL Wolfsburg sit 16th in the Bundesliga table while Bayern München are 1st.
Analysis
As the Bundesliga season nears its climax, VfL Wolfsburg host Bayern München in a fixture that promises goals and drama. With Bayern's dominance in recent encounters and their superior league standing, the visitors look poised to extend their winning streak.
Bayern München lead the league with 86 points, while Wolfsburg languish in 16th place with just 26 points. Historically, Bayern have won 18 of the last 20 meetings against Wolfsburg, with matches averaging four goals, highlighting the attacking nature of this rivalry.
Bayern's midfield maestros Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka are expected to control the game, limiting Wolfsburg's creativity. Harry Kane, Bayern's top scorer with over 30 goals this season, has a strong record against Wolfsburg and is likely to find the net again. Wolfsburg's defence has been vulnerable at home, conceding nearly two goals per game, which Bayern's clinical attack should exploit.
Prediction
We predict Bayern München to secure a 3-1 victory, with a halftime lead of 2-0. The match is expected to feature four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Confidence in this outcome is high at 95%, given Bayern's form, historical dominance, and statistical advantages.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Bayern's Midfield Dominance
Kimmich and Goretzka's control and passing likely to dominate Wolfsburg's midfield, limiting their creativity.
Superior Scoring Efficiency for Bayern
Bayern's attackers have higher goals per 90 and shot conversion than Wolfsburg, supporting predicted 3 goals.
Wolfsburg's Defensive Vulnerability at Home
Wolfsburg concedes over 1.8 goals per home game, likely exploited by Bayern's potent attack.
Kane's Consistent Scoring vs Wolfsburg
Kane has scored multiple goals in recent matches against Wolfsburg, indicating a favorable matchup.
No Major Injuries Reported
Both teams have full squads available, so no significant impact from absences expected.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Bayern München's quality and consistency make them clear favourites to triumph at Wolfsburg. Expect a commanding performance led by Kane and orchestrated by Kimmich, ensuring Bayern continue their march towards the title.
- Bayern München have won 18 of 20 head-to-head matches against VfL Wolfsburg.
- Head-to-head matches average 4.0 total goals, indicating high-scoring affairs.
- Bayern München top the league with 86 points; Wolfsburg sit 16th with 26 points.
- Wolfsburg concede over 1.8 goals per home game, highlighting defensive frailties.
- Harry Kane has scored multiple goals in recent matches against Wolfsburg.
- Joshua Kimmich leads Bayern with 12 assists this season.
- Bayern have only lost once in 33 league games this season.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — VfL Wolfsburg
Away — Bayern München
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Penalty confirmed
Goretzka
Kim Min-Jae
Olise
Assist: Laimer
Jackson
Wimmer
Eriksen
Daghim
Souza
Musiala
Ito
Shiogai
Yellow Card
Kumbedi
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | +86 | 89 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | +36 | 73 |
| 15 |  Werder Bremen | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | -23 | 32 |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -24 | 29 |
| 17 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 | 26 |
Match Statistics
VfL Wolfsburg
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1Kamil Mieczysław GrabaraG
- 3Denis VavroD
- 4Konstantinos KoulierakisD
- 5Vinicius SouzaM
- 6Jeanuël BelocianD
- 11Adam DaghimF
- 17Dženan PejčinovićF
- 21Joakim Mæhle PedersenM
- 24Christian Dannemann EriksenM
- 26Saël Kumbedi NsekeM
- 39Patrick WimmerM
Substitutes
- 7Kento ShiogaiF
- 10Lovro MajerM
- 12Pavao PervanG
- 15Moritz JenzD
- 18Jonas Adjei AdjeteyD
- 19Jesper Grænge LindstrømM
- 25Aaron ZehnterD
- 31Yannick GerhardtM
- 32Mattias Olof SvanbergM
Bayern München
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3Kim Min-JaeD
- 6Joshua Walter KimmichM
- 8Leon Christoph GoretzkaM
- 9Harry Edward KaneF
- 10Jamal MusialaM
- 11Nicolas JacksonM
- 17Michael Akpovie OliseM
- 20Tom BischofD
- 21Hiroki ItoD
- 40Jonas Kurt UrbigG
- 44Josip StanišićD
Substitutes
- 1Manuel Peter NeuerG
- 2Dayotchanculle Oswald UpamecanoD
- 4Jonathan Glao TahD
- 14Luis Fernando Díaz MarulandaF
- 22Raphaël GuerreiroD
- 27Konrad LaimerM
- 39Bara NdiayeF
- 42Lennart KarlM
- 45Aleksandar PavlovićM
VfL Wolfsburg
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamil Grabara | G | 90 | 8.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Eriksen(C) | M | 67 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Denis Vavro | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Adam Daghim | F | 74 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| Jeanuël Belocian | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vinícius Souza | M | 74 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Saël Kumbedi | M | 89 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Patrick Wimmer | M | 67 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/6 |
| Joakim Mæhle | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/6 |
| Dženan Pejčinović | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Konstantinos Koulierakis | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jonas Adjei Adjetey | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Moritz Jenz | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pavao Pervan | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesper Lindstrøm | M | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Zehnter | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mattias Svanberg | M | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Yannick Gerhardt | M | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lovro Majer | M | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kento Shiogai | F | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
Bayern München
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Min-jae | D | 45 | 8.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michael Olise | M | 90 | 8.6 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4/4 |
| Joshua Kimmich(C) | M | 90 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Jonas Urbig | G | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tom Bischof | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Hiroki Itō | D | 84 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Josip Stanišić | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Nicolas Jackson | M | 60 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/4 |
| Leon Goretzka | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jamal Musiala | M | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0/2 |
| Harry Kane | F | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bara Sapoko Ndiaye | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Manuel Neuer | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raphaël Guerreiro | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aleksandar Pavlović | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Tah | D | 11 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dayot Upamecano | D | 45 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Konrad Laimer | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Lennart Karl | M | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Luis Díaz | F | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |