Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo
Match recap
Vasco DA Gama beat Sao Paulo 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Rodríguez and Gómez scored for Vasco DA Gama; Luciano replied for Sao Paulo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.18 for Vasco DA Gama versus 2.39 for Sao Paulo. Vasco DA Gama sit 15th in the Serie A table while Sao Paulo are 9th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Vasco DA Gama win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo face off in what promises to be a one-sided affair. With Vasco's attacking midfield and wide play looking sharp, they are poised to overwhelm Sao Paulo's defence.
Match factors
Vasco's attacking midfield strength vs Sao Paulo's defense
Andrés Gómez's form and goal threat exploit Sao Paulo's defensive vulnerabilities
Calleri's prolific scoring at home
Calleri has 10 goals this season with strong home form, key to Sao Paulo's attack
Vasco's recent home scoring streak
Vasco scored in 3 of last 5 home games, supporting predicted 4-0 win
Full squad availability boosts Vasco's attacking options
No confirmed injuries for Vasco, allowing full strength attack and midfield
Sao Paulo's defensive stability challenged by Vasco's wide play
Vasco's defenders like J. Rodríguez provide assists and crossing, pressuring Sao Paulo's backline
The context
This match is part of the Regular Season - 12 in the league. Vasco DA Gama currently sit 14th with 35 points from 29 games, while Sao Paulo are 9th with 39 points from 30 games. Historically, Sao Paulo have had the upper hand in their 20 meetings, but recent form suggests a shift.
Key insights
A. Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
Andrés Gómez's 5 goals this season and strong recent form make him a key threat exploiting Sao Paulo's defence.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 25 appearances, 0.2 goals/game
J. Calleri
Sao Paulo
Calleri's 10 goals and excellent home form highlight him as Sao Paulo's main attacking threat.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 25 appearances, 0.4 goals/game
J. Rodríguez
Vasco DA Gama
Rodríguez's 4 assists and crossing ability provide Vasco with a tactical advantage on the flanks.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 20 appearances, 0.2 assists/game
Analysis
Vasco's attacking midfield, led by Andrés Gómez who has netted 5 goals this season, is expected to exploit Sao Paulo's defensive vulnerabilities. Their defenders, particularly J. Rodríguez with 4 assists, provide excellent crossing and set-piece delivery, adding to the pressure. Sao Paulo's main threat, J. Calleri, has been prolific at home but may struggle against Vasco's organised defence. Vasco's recent home scoring streak and full squad availability further bolster their chances.
Key facts
- 1.Vasco DA Gama are 14th in the league with 35 points from 29 games.
- 2.Sao Paulo are 9th with 39 points from 30 games.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Vasco have won 6, Sao Paulo 10, with 4 draws.
- 4.Andrés Gómez is Vasco's top scorer with 5 goals this season.
- 5.J. Calleri leads Sao Paulo with 10 goals, strong home form.
- 6.J. Rodríguez has provided 4 assists for Vasco this season.
- 7.Vasco have scored in 3 of their last 5 home games.
- 8.No confirmed injuries for Vasco, full squad available.
Prediction
We predict a convincing home win for Vasco DA Gama with a 4-0 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 2-0, reflecting their early dominance. The match should see a moderate number of cards, around four, as the teams contest fiercely but Vasco maintains control.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Vasco DA Gama
Away — Sao Paulo
The verdict
In summary, Vasco DA Gama's attacking strength and tactical advantages should see them comfortably dispatch Sao Paulo. Fans can expect a dominant display and a clean sheet to boot.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:27 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Luciano
Tchê Tchê
Paulo Henrique
Cédric Soares
Yellow Card
Marques Alencar
David
Rojas
Díaz
Cédric Soares
Penalty confirmed
Rodríguez
Penalty
Franco
Yellow Card
Luciano
Danielzinho
Cauan Barros
Gómez
Assist: Brenner
Léo Jardim
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | +1 | 42 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | +3 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | -8 | 36 |
| 15 |  Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 35 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
Match Statistics
Vasco DA Gama
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 7DavidF
- 10J. RojasM
- 11A. GómezM
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 66CuiabanoD
- 88Cauan BarrosM
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Substitutes
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 9Matheus FrançaF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 20BrennerF
- 25Hugo MouraM
- 28AdsonF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 77C. SpinelliF
- 98JPM
Sao Paulo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 9J. CalleriF
- 10LucianoM
- 13E. DíazD
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 21Cédric SoaresD
- 23RafaelG
- 28A. FrancoD
- 35SabinoD
- 37ArturM
- 45Lucca Marques AlencarM
- 94DanielzinhoM
Substitutes
- 4DóriaD
- 14G. TapiaF
- 17André SilvaF
- 18WendellD
- 30Felipe NegrucciM
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 33LuanM
- 34P. dos SantosF
- 42MaikD
- 54Osorio LuisD
- 80CaulyM
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrés Gómez | M | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| Cauan Barros | M | 81 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Robert Renan | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Cuiabano | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Thiago Mendes(C) | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Carlos Cuesta | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| David | F | 62 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2/3 |
| Johan Rojas | M | 62 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | — |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Jardim | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Daniel Fuzato | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Piton | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marino Hinestroza | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nuno Moreira | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus França | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JP | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Puma Rodríguez | D | 45 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Brenner | F | 28 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Adson | F | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/3 |
| Claudio Spinelli | F | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Hugo Moura | M | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cédric Soares | D | 63 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Luciano | M | 80 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Artur | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| Sabino | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Rafael | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucca | M | 58 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Enzo Díaz | D | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan Franco | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Jonathan Calleri(C) | F | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 5 | 3 | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Doria | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cauly | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Silva | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Coronel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Felisberto | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Osorio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Tapia | F | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tetê | F | 32 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wendell | D | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Negrucci | M | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maik | D | 27 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Vasco DA Gama to win against Sao Paulo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Vasco DA Gama 4–0 Sao Paulo.
- What were the win probabilities for Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's model gave Vasco DA Gama a 95% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.